March Madness 03/03/2014 -------> The EURO abides

[yoda]

So, sleet-fest followed by a bit of accumulation later Monday, more or less?  Sounds colder than previously.

 

Sounds like it... we start frozen... perhaps ice to sleet to snow?  Matt said 2-3 inches DC of snow when changeover happens

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Sounds like it... we start frozen... perhaps ice to sleet to snow?  Matt said 2-3 inches DC of snow when changeover happens

 

Yeah, that's kind of what it had been showing earlier.  Though if it's colder this cycle, perhaps more sleet than ice (which could be a good thing!).  Either way, quite the mess if it happens verbatim, with a cap of a couple to few inches.  Then quite cold for a couple or so days after I guess.

[Bob Chill]

Nice buffet run without an order of plain rain. Most importantly, it took on a more euro'ish look with slp track and trended colder overall. It's been a great day. 

[Fozz]

In all fairness, I do believe the NWS officially counts sleet as snowfall accumulation as well for the records.

 

They do.... but sleet has much lower ratios (3:1 or so rather than 10:1), but these weenie clown maps count all frozen precip (even zr ) as snow with 10:1 ratios which is why they end up so inflated.

[usedtobe]

Nice buffet run without an order of plain rain. Most importantly, it took on a more euro'ish look with slp track and trended colder overall. It's been a great day. 

Let's hope the next run has the same look.  The models certainly have swerved colder.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

They do.... but sleet has much lower ratios (3:1 or so rather than 10:1), but these weenie clown maps count all frozen precip (even zr ) as snow with 10:1 ratios which is why they end up inflated.

Aaahhh, OK...didn't realize they count sleet as 10:1!!!  That is ridiculous!  Thanks for the clarification on that...

[ravensrule]

Let's hope the next run has the same look.  The models certainly have swerved colder.

Happiest i have been to see you post since 2/5/10. Welcome back.

[weatherCCB]

Nice buffet run without an order of plain rain. Most importantly, it took on a more euro'ish look with slp track and trended colder overall. It's been a great day.

Yep, trends have really good today. I'll feel a lot more confident if we sitting in the same position tomorrow night.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Let's hope the next run has the same look.  The models certainly have swerved colder.

 

If so, we can have the bus swerve around as well for a jolly ride in the ice and snow...

[Bob Chill]

Let's hope the next run has the same look.  The models certainly have swerved colder.

 

Pretty much all now have us getting a mixed bag with some crazy cold surface temps on the panels for early march. We're getting close to having regular rain no longer being a concern. 

 

Did you see the euro ensembles? I figured they wouldn't support the op but they look just like a smoothed out version of the op. That was pretty encouraging but easy to slip back a little. Heck, I almost expect them to slip back a little over the next few days. 

[Bob Chill]

Euro member output is out. Very tasty. Even with the flawed algorithm they look pretty nice. Much better than last night. About 6" on the means for DCA. 

[Heisy]

Euro member output is out. Very tasty. Even with the flawed algorithm they look pretty nice. Much better than last night. About 6" on the means for DCA. 

 

bob OT, but do you have the individuals for the end of the week storm? 

[HM]

This is very interesting.  I know there's been discussion of just how cold the GFS 2-m temperatures have been projected, so if the models in general are gradually "realizing" the magnitude of the cold, perhaps it's not completely out to lunch?  Not saying it's spot-on, but something to not dismiss.

Well, I was referring to the entire layer in general, not just the surface. It can help shift the storm track S/E even though the upper-air features are not changing substantially.

[87storms]

I don't get why people are criticizing this post. It's their opinion. They could be right, or they could be wrong.

 

I'm sure ALL of us have that scenario in the back of our heads...

 

the problem is that it didn't come across as a friendly opinion even though people can easily just scroll past a post they don't like.

 

anyway, i don't think one can really go by climo this winter.  we've had cold air available since early november and it feels like january outside.  the pattern for almost the last 4 months it seems has been cold with a brief warmup and cold again.  it certainly doesn't feel like winter is over...all one has to do is step outside.  i'd be concerned if i was living in raleigh or richmond, but dc (or at least really close in 'burbs) is in feast year it seems.

[Bob Chill]

bob OT, but do you have the individuals for the end of the week storm? 

 

.50 - .60 liquid and about 2-3" snow on the means. Definitely some rainers in there. Those apply to both dc and philly

[WinterWxLuvr]

You guys have lived up here far longer than I have, but I've never experienced an ice to snow event. Have they happened very much? I lived most of my life on the west slopes of the Apps where winter events are quite different and ice is rare (SWVA and the infamous warm wedge.....I got rain for ALL of PD 2)

[clskinsfan]

He really has no choice in the matter.  "So be it".  

 

Thanks! Been waiting for that for 2 months.

 

I go back to work after 4 sick days and come home to find the Euro has turned into the 18Z GFS. But we all know how well the bullseye works out 4 days out.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

You guys have lived up here far longer than I have, but I've never experienced an ice to snow event. Have they happened very much? I lived most of my life on the west slopes of the Apps where winter events are quite different and ice is rare (SWVA and the infamous warm wedge.....I got rain for ALL of PD 2)

 

Feb. 9-10, 2010 comes to mind, but admittedly ice-snow does seem rare.  That was an unusual event, it bombed out as it passed by our latitude and we lucked out with great banding.  We got some snow the night of Feb. 9, followed by some sleet/zr, then the killer bands literally blasted in the morning of the 10th.

 

There's also Jan. 2011 Commutageddon, we went from rain, to ice chunks to big huge flakes.

[needbiggerboat]

not really

Since 1880 you have ~135 March months x 31 days = 4185 March days. Assume those ~150 March snowfalls were mostly within one day. So, about 3.6% of March days feature an accumulating snowfall.

Not really rare?

[AvantHiatus]

Since 1880 you have ~135 March months x 31 days = 4185 March days. Assume those ~150 March snowfalls were mostly within one day. So, about 3.6% of March days feature an accumulating snowfall.

Not really rare?

Climate change, local and global would be the canary in the coal mine when discussing march snowfall in DC.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Since 1880 you have ~135 March months x 31 days = 4185 March days. Assume those ~150 March snowfalls were mostly within one day. So, about 3.6% of March days feature an accumulating snowfall.

Not really rare?

If 3.6% of March days feature accumulating snowfall, that equates to an event every 1-3 years when accounting for sub-scale frequency variations.

So, not uncommon at all ..? Climate change & UHI are probably responsible for the long term decline.

[MN Transplant]

Since 1880 you have ~135 March months x 31 days = 4185 March days. Assume those ~150 March snowfalls were mostly within one day. So, about 3.6% of March days feature an accumulating snowfall.

Not really rare?

 

I'm not sure Dec/Jan/Feb would look that great by the same measure, so it is really degrees of rareness.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Since 1880 you have ~135 March months x 31 days = 4185 March days. Assume those ~150 March snowfalls were mostly within one day. So, about 3.6% of March days feature an accumulating snowfall.

Not really rare?

 

A bit misleading on that calculation.  150 March snowfalls in ~135 total Marches is the key, not the number of March days that had snow.  I'd take that ~3.6% of March days with accumulating snows (0.1" or greater, I presume) as meaning an average of 3.6 days every March would get measurable snowfall.  Which is in line with the fact that we get something most every year, or every other year, in March.  Not exactly rare.  Now, larger events are a different story of course.

 

EDIT:  Read that a bit wrong, my apologies.  But the point stands, 135 measurable snows in 150 March months is not exactly rare, especially looking at that one plot that shows a good number of years we historically get something that month.  Since I've been in the area (since 2001), I've seen some snow in March probably half or a little less of those years; 2009 was the biggest.

[StudentOfClimatology]

I'd take that ~3.6% of March days with accumulating snows (0.1" or greater, I presume) as meaning an average of 3.6 days every March would get measurable snowfall.

If March were 100 days long. Just multiply 31 by .036.

It's 1.1 days per month. In other words, not rare by any means.

[clskinsfan]

A bit misleading on that calculation.  150 March snowfalls in ~135 total Marches is the key, not the number of March days that had snow.  I'd take that ~3.6% of March days with accumulating snows (0.1" or greater, I presume) as meaning an average of 3.6 days every March would get measurable snowfall.  Which is in line with the fact that we get something most every year, or every other year, in March.  Not exactly rare.  Now, larger events are a different story of course.

 

Also of those 150 events I can almost guarantee you that the majority have occurred before the 15th of March. It is actually pretty common for an early March snow storm before we transition to Spring.

[Fozz]

Since 1880 you have ~135 March months x 31 days = 4185 March days. Assume those ~150 March snowfalls were mostly within one day. So, about 3.6% of March days feature an accumulating snowfall.

Not really rare?

 

150 March snowfalls over 135 months of March would be 1.1 March snow events per year on average. Not something I would call rare.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

If March were 100 days long. Just multiply 31 by .036.

It's 1.1 days per month.

 

Yeah, I read that kind of quickly and edited some of what I said.  Still, 1.1 days per March isn't bad (rare), exactly.  But we're beating a dead horse I suppose!

 

 

Also of those 150 events I can almost guarantee you that the majority have occurred before the 15th of March. It is actually pretty common for an early March snow storm before we transition to Spring.

 

Absolutely.  There's a definite rapid drop-off as you get past the first week or so, but an early March event (of some sort) is quite possible a good number of years.

[mappy]

GFS is all snow for Westminster, .97 qpf

[stormtracker]

Sounds like it... we start frozen... perhaps ice to sleet to snow?  Matt said 2-3 inches DC of snow when changeover happens

It's like 5-7",  He amended.

[T. August]

Where might I find a good site to view the GEFS?