midatlanticweather Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Over on the NYC sub-forum they're discussing the HPC's favoring of a more southern track. I did not see this in a discussion. Maybe I am looking in the wrong place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Right, because the number of posts you have determines your rank on the americanwx social ladder. Ha!! Yeah, maybe something more along the lines of "percent of weenie/useless" posts is a better measure. One can have 10s of thousands of posts, all of which add nothing...while someone else has a few hundred but good analysis. I'm sure I stand guilty as charged with a certain percent of my (just over 1000) posts being weenieish or the like, but hope a good majority add to discussion (as I'm sure everyone hopes for themselves)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The number of quality posts definitely works in ones favor. For a new guy, he's pretty good already. I'd agree... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I did not see this in a discussion. Maybe I am looking in the wrong place Well, by discussing, I mean they mentioned it... I should've said it differently lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 18z GFS looks really good right now, more separation with the PV and the S/W down south....Could give more time for the cold air to sink in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 As for the PVs in Canada, the EPS/Euro didn't really change anything too much. Arguably, they are ever-so-slightly stronger with the eastern Canadian PV and weaker with western Canadian PV. Comparing the runs to yesterday's warm runs, the Quebec PV is more consolidated on today's run. Perhaps, this is just enough to bring the significantly colder changes; otherwise, things are rather similar up there between yesterday and today. Every small difference matters I guess! I think the power of the cold air source is another thing that will continue to be more and more realized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 This confirms that accumulating March snows are extremely rare. They're less common than they used to be but they're still not unheard of or all that rare.... unless you're just talking about 10"+ storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Cold just is not a problem in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 DCA is at or just below freezing at 78 hrs on 18z GFS.... into the upper 20s by 81 or 10pm Sunday... just as precip works in. Suggests that whatever precip we start with is frozen on this run 850 line runs Mason-Dixon line at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It's far from resolved but I think we are nearing a conceus on a all frozen event . Most every major model has shifted south. My wag, but I think just small shifts now. But being in the battleground zone, small shifts may mean big changes for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 As for the PVs in Canada, the EPS/Euro didn't really change anything too much. Arguably, they are ever-so-slightly stronger with the eastern Canadian PV and weaker with western Canadian PV. Comparing the runs to yesterday's warm runs, the Quebec PV is more consolidated on today's run. Perhaps, this is just enough to bring the significantly colder changes; otherwise, things are rather similar up there between yesterday and today. Every small difference matters I guess! I think the power of the cold air source is another thing that will continue to be more and more realized. This is very interesting. I know there's been discussion of just how cold the GFS 2-m temperatures have been projected, so if the models in general are gradually "realizing" the magnitude of the cold, perhaps it's not completely out to lunch? Not saying it's spot-on, but something to not dismiss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It's far from resolved but I think we are nearing a conceus on a all frozen event . Most every major model has shifted south. My wag, but I think just small shifts now. But being in the battleground zone, small shifts may mean big changes for our area. I think we've still got a few days before we can be sure that it's all frozen or that a big winter storm is a lock. I loved today's trends, but knowing where we live, we can never be that sure of anything this far out or make specific forecasts at this range, since there's still time to trend warmer or drier, depending on how far south the cold air digs. But hopefully that won't happen. I remember thinking the same thing in Feb 2007, but just a few days out, we had some big northern shifts which ended up being heartbreaking for those of us hoping for 10"+. Still turned out to be a good storm for many of us in the end, but it was a close call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 This is very interesting. I know there's been discussion of just how cold the GFS 2-m temperatures have been projected, so if the models in general are gradually "realizing" the magnitude of the cold, perhaps it's not completely out to lunch? Not saying it's spot-on, but something to not dismiss. I think the main thing is that raw model temps are almost always too cold. That said, if the model shows an 18z temp of 22 it's probably going to be like mid-20s or so.. which is still pretty cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Well 18z GFS does keep its uber cold... 19-22 in DCA 10am Mon morning as we ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I won't know until soundings are out but it looks sleety early monday morning moreso than icy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I won't know until soundings are out but it looks sleety early monday morning moreso than icy. Which hours do you want to know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 GFS is great if you plan to be in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Which hours do you want to know? 87-93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Transitioning to snow 21z Monday... maybe PL/SN mix though as 850s are right at zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I won't know until soundings are out but it looks sleety early monday morning moreso than icy. COD runs pretty quick and you can get soundings there http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 GFS is better than 12z..and close...still keeps the best stuff to our north...probably 2-3" for DC after changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 A rookie question: Do models count all frozen precipitation as snow on the snow maps they output? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 GFS is better than 12z..and close...still keeps the best stuff to our north...probably 2-3" for DC after changeover Yes, definitely improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 87-93 87 925 -2.5 900 +0.1 850 +2.3 800 +2.2 750 +0.4 700 -2.5 90 925 -3.7 900 -0.2 850 +1.4 800 +1.3 750 +0.2 700 -2.5 93 925 -5.5 900 -1.8 850 +2.1 800 +1.1 750 +0.9 700 -2.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I think we've still got a few days before we can be sure that it's all frozen or that a big winter storm is a lock. I loved today's trends, but knowing where we live, we can never be that sure of anything this far out or make specific forecasts at this range, since there's still time to trend warmer or drier, depending on how far south the cold air digs. But hopefully that won't happen. I remember thinking the same thing in Feb 2007, but just a few days out, we had some big northern shifts which ended up being heartbreaking for those of us hoping for 10"+. Still turned out to be a good storm for many of us in the end, but it was a close call. I think the difference with the VD storm in Feb. 2007 is that I recall for days, the GFS was set on giving us a HECS-level snowfall. Then over the weekend, the NAM started looking warm(er), and the GFS followed suit. In fact, at that point both models did not do well with the CAD and had us pushing 40-50 degrees, when in fact we remained below freezing and got sleeted on (with ice farther east/south), followed by an icebox. Now I admit I have no recollection of what the Euro or Canadian were doing with the 2007 storm offhand. The current situation has gone back and forth more than the 2007 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 A rookie question: Do models count all frozen precipitation as snow on the snow maps they output? Depends on who's providing the model output. WxBell... yes, they're infamous for that. I think Accuwx's snow maps do the same. But MDA/EarthSAT only counts snow as snow, which is what all of them should do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 All about the trends, I'd be more happy right now living in N MD than N NYC right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Transitioning to snow 21z Monday... maybe PL/SN mix though as 850s are right at zero So, sleet-fest followed by a bit of accumulation later Monday, more or less? Sounds colder than previously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 All about the trends, I'd be more happy right now living in N MD than N NYC right now. Seriously? Also, It's really cool how you post positive trends for us, as well as Philly. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Depends on who's providing the model output. WxBell... yes, they're infamous for that. I think Accuwx's snow maps do the same. But MDA/EarthSAT only counts snow as snow, which is what all of them should do. In all fairness, I do believe the NWS officially counts sleet as snowfall accumulation as well for the records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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