Ian Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Can someone tell me what the EPS Control is? I'm really looking to learn more about weather in general. Thanks. something never to post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The EPS is the Euro ensembles. the control is like one member unperturbed.. the weenie model that people like to post because it says euro on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 When are we in RAP range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 something never to post. What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 When are we in RAP range? 12-15 hrs out, pretty much only for nowcasting time. Same with the HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The EPS is the Euro ensembles. I just learned from Wes this year that the control run is a lower resolution run of the euro with the exact same initial conditions. The remaining eps members all have slightly different intial conditions (perturbed). When the op and control show large differences it can uncover potential problems from errors magnified down the line with higher resolution. Todays control looks like the op. Nice shellacking of snow. heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 You said there would be no more snow storms of note until next December. Hopefully you'll do the right thing and stop posting here. He really has no choice in the matter. "So be it". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 For March 6, and 7 th, DT just posted a few minutes ago that the Euro ensembles show a big rain event for VA NC MD , but puts down a lot of snow in Northern VA MD DEL. Can anybody verify this with the euro ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 He really has no choice in the matter. "So be it". way to go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I just learned from Wes this year that the control run is a lower resolution run of the euro with the exact same initial conditions. The remaining eps members all have slightly different intial conditions (perturbed). When the op and control show large differences it can uncover potential problems from errors magnified down the line with higher resolution. Todays control looks like the op. Nice shellacking of snow. heh Yes i learned the same thing from him. I just saw EPS and did not realize he asked about the control run. It is always good though when the control agrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 the control is like one member unperturbed.. the weenie model that people like to post because it says euro on it. Like we have stated in the past it is not good to use as a tool but along with others it is helpful. It has sniffed out a couple big storms first in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 He really has no choice in the matter. "So be it". Probably was not his best choice of words, although i don't think any of his have ever been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Like we have stated in the past it is not good to use as a tool but along with others it is helpful. It has sniffed out a couple big storms first in the past. Eh.. disagree but feel free to look if you must. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Eh.. disagree but feel free to look if you must. I can't i am too cheap to shell out for Wxbell or SV. Since i cannot see it anyone way i will agree with you . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I can't i am too cheap to shell out for Wxbell or SV. Since i cannot see it anyone way i will agree with you . WeatherBELL and AccuWeatherPro both have free trials. AccuWeather's is 1 month, while WeatherBELL's is 1 week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I can't i am too cheap to shell out for Wxbell or SV. Since i cannot see it anyone way i will agree with you . Model data is like heroin to people here. But.. there's not necessarily a reason to consume it all. I dunno what the point of looking at a less skilled version of the Euro is other than hoping it shows what you want. It's basically like searching for the p00x of the GEFS that gives you the most snow IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 WeatherBELL and AccuWeatherPro both have free trials. AccuWeather's is 1 month, while WeatherBELL's is 1 week. Accuwx sucks i had it in the past. If i was to shell out it would be for Wxbell or SV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It dosent NAM is very close to EURO, blasting that cold front towards me. I hear you have chiken pox. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Accuwx sucks i had it in the past. If i was to shell out it would be for Wxbell or SV. Agreed. The whole layout kinda sucks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Model data is like heroin to people here. But.. there's not necessarily a reason to consume it all. I dunno what the point of looking at a less skilled version of the Euro is other than hoping it shows what you want. It's basically like searching for the p00x of the GEFS that gives you the most snow IMO. Definitely true, but when everyone is anxious like they are now it helps soothe the nerves when the control agrees. I am not really that cheap but i don't get it for the reason of, i already spend an inordinate amount of time on this site and if i got them i would never talk to my friends or family. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Eh.. disagree but feel free to look if you must. It's a good tool when there is large disagreement with the op as well as when it very much agrees with the op. Anything in between that doesn't have much use though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Anyone confirm the "aleet" from DT that EC Ensembles are colder for the late week event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Why don't you go pound sand Phiny. I only have 150 posts here, so I'm in no position to tell anyone off. But I find your posts to be atrocious. Anyway, 12z GGEM ensemble members look very good: http://www.americanwx.com/models/index.html?&model=ggemens&run_time=12z¶m=members----850mbTSLPprecip&map=NA&run_hour=96 All members except 1 are frozen @ 96hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Over on the NYC sub-forum they're discussing the HPC's favoring of a more southern track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/what-is-washington-dcs-weather-like-in-march-breaking-down-norms-and-extremes/2012/03/11/gIQAqgDJ7R_blog.html Monthly snowfall (in inches) by year in Washington, D.C. from 1888-2011. See sources for data.[/size] Normal March snowfall in D.C. is 1.3”, this is down 0.4” since the last 30-year climate average. In recent years (back through the 2000s), March snow has been hit-or-miss. It occurs about every other year on average with most instances quite low as far as accumulation goes. About 150 accumulating snow events, including those which were primarily rain but had some snow stick, have occurred in March since records began in the late 1880s. 33 percent of those events reached accumulation of at least 3”. As recently as March 2009, an event dropped 5.5” of snow on the first days of the month. The top 10 accumulation events in March at Washington, D.C. Numbers are in inches of snowfall.[/size]Two snow events at D.C. have reached right around one foot of snow. One hit it on the nose on the 27th into the 28th in 1891. The other holds the daily record for March at 11.5”, and it happened on the 29th in 1942. Nine other days have witnessed 6” or more snow, most recently March 9, 1999. This confirms that accumulating March snows are extremely rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 fwiw- euro ens are totally fine @ 850 for the followup hecs. MSLP and precip panels suggest a further east solution. We still get precip though. He's wrong about the ensembles "burying" us. It's 50 shades of grey for us with all panels. Delmarva scores some green. The control is a big hit though. I hope that's not what he's using for his "aleeet" Anyone confirm the "aleet" from DT that EC Ensembles are colder for the late week event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I only have 150 posts here, so I'm in no position to tell anyone off. But I find your posts to be atrocious. Anyway, 12z GGEM ensemble members look very good: http://www.americanwx.com/models/index.html?&model=ggemens&run_time=12z¶m=members----850mbTSLPprecip&map=NA&run_hour=96 All members except 1 are frozen @ 96hrs. Right, because the number of posts you have determines your rank on the americanwx social ladder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 This confirms that accumulating March snows are extremely rare. I don't know...depends, I suppose, on one's definition of "accumulating." My interpretation of those plots is that significant accumulating snows are (extremely) rare, i.e., warning criteria or greater. But getting measurable (0.1") or more, or some kind of minor amount, is not really all that rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Right, because the number of posts you have determines your rank on the americanwx social ladder. The number of quality posts definitely works in ones favor. For a new guy, he's pretty good already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 This confirms that accumulating March snows are extremely rare. not really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.