snowfan Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 IMBY going back to 1993, storms over 4" 3/9/99 - 9.5" - Dupont 3/1-2/2009 - 7.5" - Mt Pleasant 3/8/96 - 4" - Downtown Silver Spring 3/13/93 - ~9" downtown DC 3/1-2/94 - ~4" downtown DC Part of the problem is that DCAs obs make the region look weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Oh, I get that the 'burbs can get bigger. DCA? Yeah, not so much. The point I was really trying to make is that it's kind of silly to set a bar (7", 8", whatever) for how long since DC (DCA in particular) got that amount or more in March, without taking into consideration the other factors. March 1993 was a storm of historical proportions and significance, so even if DCA got "only" 6.6", factor in everything else and that would have to obviously top most everything even if other events got more in terms of actual snow. It was also very cold right after that, something you just don't see in mid-March. Also, I believe many areas in the immediate metro area (not just the farther out 'burbs) got close to 12" in that storm. I'm not saying this potential event early next week will be on that level. However, if we get a half-foot or so of snow at DCA with more in the suburbs or whatever, and also get the very cold air that the models are advertising, that would be pushing a historical-type of event for March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Not sure if someone posted already. 12z gefs still quite mixed. For every acceptable solution there is an unacceptable one. Hopefully the euro ensembles support the op run. If they don't favor the op then I'll feel like another day passed with little gain in confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The OP EURO is biggest flip i have ever seen on a model that close to the storm.....Id like to see one or two more consistent runs. With that being said, the cold appears to be real and its a major winter storm either way whether its snow or not. I wont be here but I am hoping for a big snow so when i come back Wednesday, i can at least see what i missed:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Not sure if someone posted already. 12z gefs still quite mixed. For every acceptable solution there is an unacceptable one. Hopefully the euro ensembles support the op run. If they don't favor the op then I'll feel like another day passed with little gain in confidence. Yup, it's still kind of clear as mud at this point though the operational trends are nice. Did the Euro ensembles match the operational for last night's 00Z, or did they actually look more like what today's 12Z op shows (i.e., colder)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Mappy's gonna need help shoveling. I work for food. just saw this... if I get 15", you are more than welcome to come shovel it for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Believe it or not they only show 7+/- in dc. Fred county - winchester big winners with 15-16 We all know that Rockminster will jackpot in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Or a party breaks out. I think the Euro is gonna be good. It'll turn the ship around. Your forecasting of the Euro was spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curlyq Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 DC hasn't had more than 7-8" of snow in March since the late 50s, right? Climo. March 15, 1993 comes to mind about significant snow in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Based on past march events, I am 110% sure this will bust somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 heh, maybe the gfs isn't totally off it's rocker... Graceful Euro changes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Based on past march events, I am 110% sure this will bust somehow. we've got way more of a cold air supply than we did on that debacle of a storm last year (3/6/2013). Based on seasonal trends, the latest Euro looks pretty reasonable with its Westminster/Parkton jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Based on past march events, I am 110% sure this will bust somehow. Yes, the hundreds of events with -35c h85 temps in southern Canada you see this time of year. Nothing unusual. I'm sure your data set is large to make this statement and analogous? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Yes, the hundreds of events with -35c h85 temps in southern Canada you see this time of year. Nothing unusual. I'm sure your data set is large to make this statement and analogous? Wasn't march 2001 cold enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Wasn't march 2001 cold enough? Right, so, I got my answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 we've got way more of a cold air supply than we did on that debacle of a storm last year (3/6/2013). Based on seasonal trends, the latest Euro looks pretty reasonable with its Westminster/Parkton jackpot. The setup is a lot less complicated than last march, where the models just struggled with the evolution of the storm which caused decreased QPF. Bust potential is lower but I am just saying it is something people should keep in mind because the last two times we were supposed to get over 8 inches in march it busted badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Right, so, I got my answer. lol it was cold enough for a warm drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 EPS mean supports the OP...big time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The setup is a lot less complicated than last march, where the models just struggled with the evolution of the storm which caused decreased QPF. Bust potential is lower but I am just saying it is something people should keep in mind because the last two times we were supposed to get over 8 inches in march it busted badly. Who is forecasting over 8"? We are 4 days out! What does it even mean to "bust" at this time frame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The setup is a lot less complicated than last march, where the models just struggled with the evolution of the storm which caused decreased QPF. Bust potential is lower but I am just saying it is something people should keep in mind because the last two times we were supposed to get over 8 inches in march it busted badly. You are the only person making definitive statements that this is sure to bust. So who are you really talking to here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The setup is a lot less complicated than last march, where the models just struggled with the evolution of the storm which caused decreased QPF. Bust potential is lower but I am just saying it is something people should keep in mind because the last two times we were supposed to get over 8 inches in march it busted badly. March 2009 busted badly in DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Graceful Euro changes? If the GFS winds up to be the correct solution, you have some epic trolling ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 March 2009 busted badly in DC? Difference between a 4-8 incher and a MECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 You are the only person making definitive statements that this is sure to bust. So who are you really talking to here? You people..... I was making a joke... Hence the "110%" sure it would bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Can someone fill me in as to what the precip type that doesn't fall as snow in DC according to the Euro? Is it sleet, freezing rain or plain rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Right, so, I got my answer. LOL, well played. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 You are the only person making definitive statements that this is sure to bust. So who are you really talking to here? He should check with hosj I and hosj II before being so definitive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 fwiw--JMA is warm and north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 fwiw--JMA is warm and north 12z Euro ENS mean matches the Op has 6-8" for the MA, impressive. SLP tracks over CLT to Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Can someone fill me in as to what the precip type that doesn't fall as snow in DC according to the Euro? Is it sleet, freezing rain or plain rain? Balls of fire. Fireballs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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