winterymix Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 In the land of the cartopper, the man with the six inch chilly snowfall is King. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 At least we can start extrapolating the NAM soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 27, 2014 Author Share Posted February 27, 2014 Sadly, the EURO is not onboard very much. It signals snow but mostly north of 40N. The 500 mb progression could hardly be more different. So...too soon for the models to converge on a solution. Euro on the top and GFS on the bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Terrible idea to start this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 27, 2014 Author Share Posted February 27, 2014 Terrible idea to start this thread. Strongly agree. We shouldn't discuss a possible strong snow signal at 87 hours on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Strongly agree. We shouldn't discuss a possible strong snow signal at 87 hours on the GFS strong signal for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 27, 2014 Author Share Posted February 27, 2014 strong signal for? The SREF plumes show an mean 0.5" snowfall accumulation at Frederick, all this at the beginning of the system. We have to wait for later runs of the SREF plume to see if the event is signaled as significantly snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Take the ECMWF and it's consolidated solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 WINTER STORM TITAN!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 WINTER STORM TITAN!! oh, no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Euro ensembles mostly support the op with one good exception. Hr 120 is a good bit juicier on the mean. The tail is our best chance for snow. We would have the column by then. The op is pretty dry though. Overall the ind members have trended away each run for a decent hit. As expected given the op's stubborn crappy solution. Gfs is NSFW. One run hardly gets me excited considering the envelope favors warmer across the board. Still plenty of time. We need less than a 100 mile shift. If the event is going to be mostly frozen then the ticking better start today. I'm curious to what hm thinks about the h5 setup on the most recent guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Terrible idea to start this thread. Let's get the radio show on the schedule now and avoid the rush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Euro ensembles mostly support the op with one good exception. Hr 120 is a good bit juicier on the mean. The tail is our best chance for snow. We would have the column by then. The op is pretty dry though. Overall the ind members have trended away each run for a decent hit. As expected given the op's stubborn crappy solution. Gfs is NSFW. One run hardly gets me excited considering the envelope favors warmer across the board. Still plenty of time. We need less than a 100 mile shift. If the event is going to be mostly frozen then the ticking better start today. I'm curious to what hm thinks about the h5 setup on the most recent guidance. Sounds like you're putting all of your eggs in the Euro basket. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Thread is fine. It's not like we're sitting on trip kings on the river with 2 players holding a pair of aces and a open ended straight with 4 suited. We holding 2 small pair at best. My bar is somehow squeezing 3" out of this and I'm counting sleet in my total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Sounds like you're putting all of your eggs in the Euro basket. Good luck. Ss system with ensemble support @ d5 against 6z gfs and jv models combined with a closing climo window? Yea, I'll play the odds.I'm putting my eggs on the tail end of the system either way. So a blend of guidance there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Sounds like you're putting all of your eggs in the Euro basket. Good luck. Hugging the euro will get you a pretty high success rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Ss system with ensemble support @ d5 against 6z gfs and jv models combined with a closing climo window? Yea, I'll play the odds. I'm putting my eggs on the tail end of the system either way. So a blend of guidance there. 100% agree. Quite a few GFS ens members are warmish and are more supportive of the Euro. 6z and 18z GFS runs are meh, I never pay too much attention other than looking for continuity as an event nears. Euro is in its wheelhouse about now...today's runs will be telling. Just hope it shows something decent on the back end, as that is where the snow potential will be for areas south of PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 100% agree. Quite a few GFS ens members are warmish and are more supportive of the Euro. 6z and 18z GFS runs are meh, I never pay too much attention other than looking for continuity as an event nears. Euro is in its wheelhouse about now...today's runs will be telling. Just hope it shows something decent on the back end, as that is where the snow potential will be for areas south of PA. 1. Which ones exactly? 2. Evidence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 1. Which ones exactly? 2. Evidence? The second thing he is said is a continually debunked myth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Random (not-so-random) observation....hugging the least snowy/least frozen solution hasn't been an overall winning strategy this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Random (not-so-random) observation....hugging the least snowy/least frozen solution hasn't been an overall winning strategy this winter. Indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The second thing he is said is a continually debunked myth. 6z and 18z are very useful at short range and good tools to spot something different to compare with with the next 0z/12z in the medium range for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 6z and 18z are very useful at short range and good tools to spot something different to compare with with the next 0z/12z in the medium range for sure. there's really no evidence that any cycle is better than another at any range -- the confusion seems to be related to this foolish "something hasn't been sampled yet" argument Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 6z and 18z are very useful at short range and good tools to spot something different to compare with with the next 0z/12z in the medium range for sure. Isn't that basically what i said? As an event nears, useful for continuity purposes, between the 0 and 12z runs. At longer leads I don't pay that much attention to the off runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The GFS has been set in it solution for a couple of days now... the only thing it has been fine tuning is the exact track which has been further south and bringing the snow line further south. Yesterday 12z run had northern Maryland getting very little snow. The 6z run this morning now has it getting 8+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 1. Which ones exactly? 2. Evidence? ??? 0z run had some warmer members. Was just reading the AFD from Mount Holly as well....Here ya go if you are looking for an "expert" assessment- AS FAR AS THE MODELING IS GOING WITH THIS EVENT, THE OPERATION ECMWF REMAINS THE WARMEST, ALTHOUGH IT DID TREND SLIGHTLY COLDER FROM THE DAY RUN AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SLIGHTLY COLDER BY MONDAY EVENING. ITS DIFFERENCE FROM THE OTHER MODELS IS A SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH PV IN EASTERN CANADA (LESS OF A NEARBY SFC RIDGE) AND HANGING BACK MORE ENERGY IN WESTERN CANADA. BOTH PERMIT A SLIGHTLY STRONGER TROF TO TRAVERSE THE CONUS AND BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR INTO OUR CWA. THE GFS ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING HAS ABOUT A 40 PERCENT SUPPORT OF THIS WARMER SOLUTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 there's really no evidence that any cycle is better than another at any range -- the confusion seems to be related to this foolish "something hasn't been sampled yet" argument I agree. The 6z/18z are totally fine for short/medium. No op is good for long anyways. I've seen many times where the 6z/18z picked up on something important. All models blip out from time to time. Sometimes the middle runs get a bad wrap for that. There was growing anecdotal evidence that the 18z was prone to overdoing snow and or storms in our region but that has vanished. Some dude did an analysis of the accuracy of the 4 runs. It was a fairly detailed look. I can't remember who posted it or where the link is. 6z overall performed the worst and it had to do with the least amount of additional data input. Overall the differences are negligible. I've never been a gfs run basher. I think the model is a great tool with all 4 cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The GFS was a big load of crap for the 2/12-13 storm. Are folks now buying it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Isn't that basically what i said? As an event nears, useful for continuity purposes, between the 0 and 12z runs. At longer leads I don't pay that much attention to the off runs. I thought you were saying meh as in they aren't useful runs. Cleared up now. At longer leads using any op run is full of problems. One a side note, about half of the 6z gefs members show an acceptable solution. From what I can tell on euro member output about half show an acceptable solution too but I have no confidence in the algorithm used for snow. The mean precip is .60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The GFS was a big load of crap for the 2/12-13 storm. Are folks now buying it? The GFS has more support this time... the Euro is the outliner. I am not saying it is right either... Everyone will always hug the model that gives them the most snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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