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March 2nd/3rd Winter Storm Potential


joey2002

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Well the differences seemed to stem from the PV. The euro op seemed to send a lobe of vorticity SE and a faster srn S/W. The ensembles was a little slower with the S/W and not really shoving that vorticity SE like the op. FWIW anyways.  Those comments earlier after I mentioned the ensembles and now worrying about mixed precip to the pike seem a little too knee jerk.

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00z and 12z a couple days ago jackpotted us up here....then it was CNE, then SNE, now a shade south. If it's not a trend, I'm not sure what is.

 

It is pretty much game over here on this one. I have accepted that this isn't our year and it will be forgettable in the grand scheme of things.

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Is it that same lobe that was so prominent on the GFS that is wrestling this thing?

 

The euro actually sends the lobe south and flattern the flow over us more than the GFS. Ironically, the euro has a good looking srn vort. The GFS op looked a little more like the EC ensemble. This 12z euro op is basically a bit faster with the PV lobe moving SE and slower with the srn vort which results in a disconnect and causes more of a suppressed solution...compared to 00z.

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By this time tomorrow the talk is going to center around how far north the heavy snow gets and how far north the sleet gets

 

 

That wouldn't shock me, but that is far from certain at this point.

 

 

The multi-model spread is very high right now. That bothers me quite a bit in terms of any type of confidence in this system. The Euro has gone south two runs in a row including an uncharacteristic large move, but its ensembles haven't been confident. Other models are making large jumps as well.

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That wouldn't shock me, but that is far from certain at this point.

The multi-model spread is very high right now. That bothers me quite a bit in terms of any type of confidence in this system. The Euro has gone south two runs in a row including an uncharacteristic large move, but its ensembles haven't been confident. Other models are making large jumps as well.

Yeah I think people really need to understand not to set up jackpot areas and conversely screw zones. 4+ days out.... Things can change.

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That wouldn't shock me, but that is far from certain at this point.

 

 

The multi-model spread is very high right now. That bothers me quite a bit in terms of any type of confidence in this system. The Euro has gone south two runs in a row including an uncharacteristic large move, but its ensembles haven't been confident. Other models are making large jumps as well.

Maybe this is the one time a s stream system with plenty of gulf juice ends up shunted south of NYC with snow and DC jackpotting..but we've just seen so many times in the past when the models have gone nuts with a PV and confluence and as you get to about 48 hours in..they start to go back the other way. Plus as you pointed out earlier..it' will be March and that also doesn't typically mean supression..I feel by the time this shakes out it snows up to GYX area..and somewhere into Ct sees sleet mix in

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Maybe this is the one time a s stream system with plenty of gulf juice ends up shunted south of NYC with snow and DC jackpotting..but we've just seen so many times in the past when the models have gone nuts with a PV and confluence and as you get to about 48 hours in..they start to go back the other way. Plus as you pointed out earlier..it' will be March and that also doesn't typically mean supression..I feel by the time this shakes out it snows up to GYX area..and somewhere into Ct sees sleet mix in

What did you do with Kevin? You have had some quality post the last couple days

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Maybe this is the one time a s stream system with plenty of gulf juice ends up shunted south of NYC with snow and DC jackpotting..but we've just seen so many times in the past when the models have gone nuts with a PV and confluence and as you get to about 48 hours in..they start to go back the other way. Plus as you pointed out earlier..it' will be March and that also doesn't typically mean supression..I feel by the time this shakes out it snows up to GYX area..and somewhere into Ct sees sleet mix in

I think your area to scooter will be in the sweet swath.

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The other thing to think about..with a model like the GFS that can't handle southern stream systems..to have it this far north already is huge..normally if it was suppression time you'd see it down around OBX.

 

Another great sign for the worriers in the area

 

it's coming north and I'd bet the GEFS are north of the op

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Maybe this is the one time a s stream system with plenty of gulf juice ends up shunted south of NYC with snow and DC jackpotting..but we've just seen so many times in the past when the models have gone nuts with a PV and confluence and as you get to about 48 hours in..they start to go back the other way. Plus as you pointed out earlier..it' will be March and that also doesn't typically mean supression..I feel by the time this shakes out it snows up to GYX area..and somewhere into Ct sees sleet mix in

You always bring hope to the sick and faint of heart.You're wrong, but reguardless...

Sent from my VS980 4G using Tapatalk

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