joey2002 Posted February 27, 2014 Author Share Posted February 27, 2014 I'm not sure why there is such a penchant for talking in the past tense about these systems when they are still 4 days out. I hope people can try and keep it a bit more scientific in these threat threads. I'm not sure people are quite grasping how much ensemble spread there is...not only within a homogenous ensemble suite, but multi-model ensemble too. Ukie was way amped at 12z...while it was suppressed at 00z. There's some issues going on in dealing with this big offshore southern stream system currently west of California, and the evoluation of the polar vortex split to the north and how those two interact. Yeah, 4 days out with not much consistency, it's way to early to say that anything "couldn't happen". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 My honest guess is that s of the pike does well, n, naso much. If I had 100 grand..i would bet 75k of it that this will bring snow as far north os Central NH and southern maine..and the heaviest snows were from S NH down to sw CT. Honestly. the Euro always gets overzealous with the PV strength and placement and we see it back off in the coming days. Like clock work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Where was the 12z UK? The low going through central NJ and just S of LI...prob ptype issues for a chunk of SNE. Its probably overdone, but the fact that it and other guidance continues to make fairly large jumps and ensemble spread is high, should alert people that this is not a high confidence forecast yet...we don't have a nice tight clustering of solutions that we usually want to see to start honing in on a region for highest impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Every system is different. 9 times out of 10 the modeled ridic arctic cold shots at d5+ are overdone and the southern streamers verify more amped. Yeah but there has been a trend this season that is hard to ignore...I can't remember many modeled arctic shots that under-performed this winter. weren't people just talking in the other thread yesterday to take the colder model and that has seemed to verify this year? Most other seasons I certainly would not be this cynical but it's how it goes, it's a cold/dry winter up here. It's like Scooter was known for caution flags on every system up till Feb 2013, and this winter we've seen none of that "reasons why this will miss" haha. Certain patterns change your approach to forecasting. Next winter we probably will then see every single system move 200 miles north 3 days out or something, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 All busting aside, it's in thew realm of possibilities, but all it takes is a small wobble of the PV. This thing inherently wants to go north, but the PV is having a say. I think the only thing we can really take out of this one run, is that the PV is very strong and will have more of a say then we normally would expect with srn stream systems. I'm not sure there is a trend either way other than correcting towards the consensus since the 12z yesterday was so amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The low going through central NJ and just S of LI...prob ptype issues for a chunk of SNE. Its probably overdone, but the fact that it and other guidance continues to make fairly large jumps and ensemble spread is high, should alert people that this is not a high confidence forecast yet...we don't have a nice tight clustering of solutions that we usually want to see to start honing in on a region for highest impact. When in doubt, favor those within the seasonal deformation zone. CT-Scooter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Heavy Leon. Actually right out of the playbook. Wills post is 100% spot on, taking any run and thinking its a final solution this far out is fraught with fail. My self I will decide after Sat's noon runs if its a big deal or run of the mill. early opinion game on for a whole lot of populace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I don't think the models handling this storm is much different then any of the others this season so far, They all have not been resolved until we got closer in for the most part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 All busting aside, it's in thew realm of possibilities, but all it takes is a small wobble of the PV. This thing inherently wants to go north, but the PV is having a say. I think the only thing we can really take out of this one run, is that the PV is very strong and will have more of a say then we normally would expect with srn stream systems. I'm not sure there is a trend either way other than correcting towards the consensus since the 12z was so amped. Great post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Great postThanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Honestly. the Euro always gets overzealous with the PV strength and placement and we see it back off in the coming days. Like clock work Serious question as I'm having trouble remembering...how many arctic shots or PVs have been over-modeled this season? I do think what Will and Scooter brought up about March convection and added latent heat causing a little more downstream ridging would be a solid reason for this to come back north. The deeper we go into spring, you gotta imagine something will give and these will start coming more north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Serious question as I'm having trouble remembering...how many arctic shots or PVs have been over-modeled this season? I do think what Will and Scooter brought up about March convection and added latent heat causing a little more downstream ridging would be a solid reason for this to come back north. The deeper we go into spring, you gotta imagine something will give and these will start coming more north. I don't remember certain dates, but I believe the mid feb event and the mid Dec event both had a strong PV modeled to our north and there were some runs that suppressed everything only to have the PV back off as we moved closer. I remember us having a disco about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Thanks No problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Serious question as I'm having trouble remembering...how many arctic shots or PVs have been over-modeled this season? I do think what Will and Scooter brought up about March convection and added latent heat causing a little more downstream ridging would be a solid reason for this to come back north. The deeper we go into spring, you gotta imagine something will give and these will start coming more north. That's true, but it also has a limit which is what we are saying in referencing the PV. Its also not just te PV per se, it's the orientation of it. I'd say the same thing now as I would say if it jackpotted me..... We have a lot of time left and a lot of moving parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It's always fun to watch the panic party begin when a model run pushes something "too far" north or south. It's not scientific to "bet" on anything, but it does appear that the chances remain significant for the norther Mid Atlantic to SNE/CNE get clobbered with something in the Sunday night to Monday night time frame. Does anyone really consider the forecast a lock in, yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Well it's snowing now so fuk it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 That's true, but it also has a limit which is what we are saying in referencing the PV. Its also not just te PV per se, it's the orientation of it. I'd say the same thing now as I would say if it jackpotted me..... We have a lot of time left and a lot of moving parts. Yeah, I see no reason to be "worried" if that's what we want to call it, in SNE. Personally I'd go with like a BOS-BDL-POU axis right now a target zone or slightly south...but far from a lock. I'm not sold on much meaningful stuff getting much further than CON-DDH type axis at this point. The northern edge is going to be sharp with that dry arctic air lurking nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It will be interesting to see what the ensembles do. Didn't really expect that run..lol. neither did DC weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Euro ens more suppressed as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Euro ensembles are definitely NW of the op and a bit warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Euro ens more suppressed as well. Euro ensembles are definitely NW of the op and a bit warmer. Scott's news is much better...but who is correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Scott's news is much better...but who is correct? I'm looking at it now. It's not a 100 mile difference, but it's more noticeable in the beginning from 90hr-102. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I think the bigger worry is still Ptype issues south of pike than getting missed. PV will not end up there or that strong. Always over modeled . Think about all the times we've seen this over the years Wasn't the talk earlier today from folks about how cold this was going to be? Are things really fluctuating that much where we go from certain cold and snow, to possible p-type issues? ...must wait another 36-48 hours to even discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Scott's news is much better...but who is correct? hearing they are a bit N of the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Euro ensembles are definitely NW of the op and a bit warmer. Not surprising. Bigger worry pike south is sleet mix vs no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I'm looking at it now. It's not a 100 mile difference, but it's more noticeable in the beginning from 90hr-102. How does the ensemble mean compare to 0z ens mean? Individual members? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Not surprising. Bigger worry pike south is sleet mix vs no snow. I think, based on current guidance, suppression is more of a concern than ptype issues for all in SNE, but I'm using logic here, so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Scott's news is much better...but who is correct? Both correct depending on how it is interpreted....Jerry is correct that they are suppressed in the sense that they are more suppressed than last nights ensembles....but Scott is correct that they are not as suppressed as the OP run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 DT says Euro op likely not correct and too cold/suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I think, based on current guidance, suppression is more of a concern than ptype issues for all in SNE, but I'm using logic here, so... faulty logic...but logic nonetheless... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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