40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Having strong confluence to the N can be a great thing too. Can help to wring out a lot of moisture with these systems. Yes. Maxamizes isentropic lift, and it snows earlier than it otherwise would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Still have a glacier snow pack here. Will be cool to watch fluff blow around on top of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Its all about temps within the snowgrowth layer...there is an optimal temp range, but I can't recall.... -12C-18c layer is where you want both saturation and lift. Salt nuclei can cause this layer to go down below -10C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Yes. Maxamizes isentropic lift, and it snows earlier than it otherwise would. Yep, enhances frontogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 -12C-18c layer is where you want both saturation and lift. Salt nuclei can cause this layer to go down below -10C. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Having strong confluence to the N can be a great thing too. Can help to wring out a lot of moisture with these systems. I really like where we sit for sure. This can only come so far north, even if it did tickle north I think that may only help us with more qpf. Weird how in early march there might not be a rain snow line issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 There will be mass suicides in the general public with a mod snow and continued cold... Areas in the hills might do okay as well with things banked up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Do we have much confidence via MJO or other teleconnectors or perhaps seasonal persistency's what the period from march 10-20 looks like from. Purely temperature perspective. Will or scott, not holding u to it , just any ideas post march 10 or so temp wise There is the chance is could moderate beyond mid month from some of the grumblings I see..but the signal for ridging out west is still there. Hard to go warm when that is there. Some of the stat guidance argues for IO convection after mid month, but that isn't a very warm signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 For those worried down south, even the euro op gave you quite a bit of snow...the areas on Cape Cod through Newport. Just FYI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Well it will be interesting to see if our hunch is right with the Euro vs GFS. Hard to go against calling out the GFS bias, but this time is brought a friend up north. Still, methinks (and it sounds like many others too) the GFS is probably too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I really like where we sit for sure. This can only come so far north, even if it did tickle north I think that may only help us with more qpf. Weird how in early march there might not be a rain snow line issue Still early, but yes, all guidance looks good for us. The Euro was tasty. Looked like about a foot looking at the 00z run. GFS has us in the teens, maybe low 20s at most for this. Impressive airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Well the Canadian wants many of us to smoke cirrus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Well it will be interesting to see if our hunch is right with the Euro vs GFS. Hard to go against calling out the GFS bias, but this time is brought a friend up north. Still, methinks (and it sounds like many others too) the GFS is probably too far south. Compromise may be in order? Somewhat south of the euro, but north if the gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 There is the chance is could moderate beyond mid month from some of the grumblings I see..but the signal for ridging out west is still there. Hard to go warm when that is there. Some of the stat guidance argues for IO convection after mid month, but that isn't a very warm signal. saw that ridge really building in the late portion of the GFS... gotta think its gonna spill over at some point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Still early, but yes, all guidance looks good for us. The Euro was tasty. Looked like about a foot looking at the 00z run. GFS has us in the teens, maybe low 20s at most for this. Impressive airmass. Yeah, if your looking at it from an impact standpoint, the euro takes the cake so far. Long way to go, but cautiously optimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 For those worried down south, even the euro op gave you quite a bit of snow...the areas on Cape Cod through Newport. Just FYI. Yeah that was 6"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Compromise may be in order? Somewhat south of the euro, but north if the gfs? I'd rather the euro op...but realistically...I think siding closer to the 00z euro is probably a more likely scenario. Of course we all say this without seeing the 12z so thoughts probably should wait until that comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Well the Canadian wants many of us to smoke cirrus. Its usually smoking something more potent. I like your idea regarding the ECENS being this most prudent compromise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Its usually smoking something more potent. I like your idea regarding the ECENS being this most prudent compromise. That model is comical sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 That model is comical sometimes. If uncle looks like the GEM, then I'd really be eager to see the EURO.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S&P Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 For those worried down south, even the euro op gave you quite a bit of snow...the areas on Cape Cod through Newport. Just FYI. all snow or ptype issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 all snow or ptype issues Euro has a little ptype issues early. GEFS are a bit more amped then the op, but still an icebox. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I really like where we sit for sure. This can only come so far north, even if it did tickle north I think that may only help us with more qpf. Weird how in early march there might not be a rain snow line issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Wow. I lost track but won't this be the third snow event with insane cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Euro has a little ptype issues early. GEFS are a bit more amped then the op, but still an icebox. To be quite honest my worries about p-type have lessened since yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 What's the consensus on timing? I know it's early yet but, my daughter is flying out of logan at 7am monday. Issues? Last 2 gfs runs seem to be holding it back a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Wow. I lost track but won't this be the third snow event with insane cold? I think we are past 3. A new found respect for EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The spread is still really high on the GEFS...the mean is a bit north of the OP run, but the wild variance in the individual runs is pretty amazing. A few members get ptype issues into CNE while a couple are just SNE scrapers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I don't know how far in advance wunderground puts out accumulations, but apparently they do far out. They're have me with 1-3 Sunday night and 5-8 on Monday. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Euro is looking more suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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