HoarfrostHubb Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 This thread should be pinned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The GFS/GEFS are further south than all the foreign guidance. It seems to have a penchant for that on southern stream systems. My guess is reality ends up north of that model suite. Details still to be determined though. Like clockwork. The GFS' propensity to surpress systems born of the sw stream is alkin to the NAM's tendency to underestimate the low level jet in those sw flow events of 2008 and 2009. I remember that the NYC weenies kept on having the football pulled from them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 GFS still south, but a nice hit to srn NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 GFS squashes the northern extent of the storm today. Really likes S of I-90. Northern stream is flatter and southern stream is more consolidated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Flow out west is a little more flatter too. That srn vort may argue for a tickle north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Like clockwork. The GFS' propensity to surpress systems born of the sw stream is alkin to the NAM's tendency to underestimate the low level jet in those sw flow events of 2008 and 2009. I remember that the NYC weenies kept on having the football pulled from them. Yes...I'm betting it has the same bias in this storm as well. Beware of the southern stream juice. We'll see how it evolves...the way that PV elongates to our north will have a say too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Looks like it could be a bit of a fluff bomb too. Very cold through the column (ridiculously cold for an early March storm) - I could see some areas getting some solid ratios out of this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Looks like it could be a bit of a fluff bomb too. Very cold through the column (ridiculously cold for an early March storm) - I could see some areas getting some solid ratios out of this one. Ugh..was hoping this would have some meat to it and staying power. Nothing like a foot of fluff gone in 2 days in the Morch sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Ugh..was hoping this would have some meat to it and staying power. Nothing like a foot of fluff gone in 2 days in the Morch sun Ugh??? A little more worry about suppression power; a little less about staying power! Like you'd ever turn down a foot of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Flow out west is a little more flatter too. That srn vort may argue for a tickle north. Yup, Looked better at H5 but the end results up here did not change, But it did bump the qpf up further north in CT from the 06z run, I think its heading in a better direction anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Ugh..was hoping this would have some meat to it and staying power. Nothing like a foot of fluff gone in 2 days in the Morch sun Well we could get 0.80" of qpf and still have solid ratios...it would just mean a lot fo amounts of 15-18" that compress to like 8" a couple days later. I'm hoping we don't get 0.35" of qpf for 7-8" of fluff....that stuff gets annihilated in about 24 hours. As long as this has any sort of amplitude to it, it should have a lot of moisture with it given the origin....we just don't want to see something really strung out which inhibits the moisture advection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Looks like it could be a bit of a fluff bomb too. Very cold through the column (ridiculously cold for an early March storm) - I could see some areas getting some solid ratios out of this one. Similar to the St Patty's day event of 2007 in that respect...very cold, though that one was more of a swfe event. Cf got to mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 A Possible footer in march, lets not let greed and worry take over. Great back end continues. Lets watch the evolution of the PV with this one. Big playa here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Yup, Looked better at H5 but the end results up here did not change, But it did bump the qpf up further north in CT from the 06z run, I think its heading in a better direction anyways It's only going to come north so much....but for the last 24 hrs suppression has been the least of my worries...especially down here. You can see the writing on the wall with these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Pretty sure the GFS would argue for one of the coldest snow events ever in March..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 There are a lot of record vulnerable early next week... both record lows and record low maxes. GFS MOS is silly cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Well we could get 0.80" of qpf and still have solid ratios...it would just mean a lot fo amounts of 15-18" that compress to like 8" a couple days later. I'm hoping we don't get 0.35" of qpf for 7-8" of fluff....that stuff gets annihilated in about 24 hours. As long as this has any sort of amplitude to it, it should have a lot of moisture with it given the origin....we just don't want to see something really strung out which inhibits the moisture advection. Yea, its all about the qpf, not the snowfall amounts. QPF is obviously correlated to water content. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Starts a little later than yesterday's run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I'm certainly not going to gripe about the type of snow we get in march lol. I'm happy to even have a shot at a big event. With the air mass in place. That evolution on the gfs would argue for 12+ south of the pike I think. Still a long ways away, but starting to put two eyes on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I can't believe how cold it looks next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Well we could get 0.80" of qpf and still have solid ratios...it would just mean a lot fo amounts of 15-18" that compress to like 8" a couple days later. I'm hoping we don't get 0.35" of qpf for 7-8" of fluff....that stuff gets annihilated in about 24 hours. As long as this has any sort of amplitude to it, it should have a lot of moisture with it given the origin....we just don't want to see something really strung out which inhibits the moisture advection. I always thought that southern stream systems don't have the high ratios with them and tend to bring more juice with them especially aloft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I always thought that southern stream systems don't have the high ratios with them and tend to bring more juice with them especially aloft You can still have higher ratios if you are in the deformation zone, it's just that these tend to be warmer and more juicier systems with ratios less than your typical nrn stream system. The euro is just that. Probably a little better than 10:1 ratios, but also 1-1.2" QPF. The GFS is so cold because the system is further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Nice run, keep juicing it up, keep consolidating, slowly coming around to a euro solution, excellent ratios, silly ass cold, whats not to like, drifts and the Arctic with record breaking cold. Save the cement bomb for the amped up Gulf storm . Game on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Payback for March 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It's only going to come north so much....but for the last 24 hrs suppression has been the least of my worries...especially down here. You can see the writing on the wall with these. That is true, The pv was more elongated this run up north as it was stretched out more and compressed out west, I don't think there was ever a question for your area as far as seeing precip go, I would like to see the s/w a little stronger coming out of the southwest so it gains a little more latitude before it gets squashed out to the south when it reaches the coast, The key is the positioning of that PV up north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 You can still have higher ratios if you are in the deformation zone, it's just that these tend to be warmer and more juicier systems with ratios less than your typical nrn stream system. The euro is just that. Probably a little better than 10:1 ratios, but also 1-1.2" QPF. The GFS is so cold because the system is further south. Screams GFS bias to me. Tends to overdo the northern stream and squashes systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I always thought that southern stream systems don't have the high ratios with them and tend to bring more juice with them especially aloft Its all about temps within the snowgrowth layer...there is an optimal temp range, but I can't recall.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Do we have much confidence via MJO or other teleconnectors or perhaps seasonal persistency's what the period from march 10-20 looks like from. Purely temperature perspective. Will or scott, not holding u to it , just any ideas post march 10 or so temp wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Having strong confluence to the N can be a great thing too. Can help to wring out a lot of moisture with these systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Nice run, keep juicing it up, keep consolidating, slowly coming around to a euro solution, excellent ratios, silly ass cold, whats not to like, drifts and the Arctic with record breaking cold. Save the cement bomb for the amped up Gulf storm . Game on Its all gravy to me, as I have had my fill of snow. Great call on the season by you and and jerry. Only contention that I would have is that 1994 wasn't as kind to the s coast and mid atl. in terms of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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