March 2nd/3rd Winter Storm Potential

[JC-CT]

Euro was too far north, this is from around the 27th...at about this point the GGEM was WAY south...but as it turns out (from memory) much closer to reality. Remove the GFS from the equation and a compromise of these other two models would have been pretty good. HPC wasn't far off on Thursday either....Euro/HPC were too far north at that range but not terrible. Where the expectation came for a major NE snow....??

The failure here is instead of latching onto the multi-day south trend, everyone latched onto the one run that jogged north again I think it was Thursday night which proved to be a blip. Neither one of these depictions was a major or even moderate storm for the vast majority of New England...and these were Thursday.

and hpc

Toss the 2/28 0z Euro for the 2/27 12z Euro, and throw out the GFS completely and use the GEM (which was showing 3-6 S of the Pike) to 50/50 blend with the the 2/27 12z Euro.

If all we had done was that, we would have easily seen that this one was only flurries on Friday morning. Got it.

[CT Rain]

Gonna be some massive melting with this unforecasted sun this afternoon. Temps all above 32

 

Good thing I had highs in the mid 30s and mentioned some breaks in the clouds.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I don't think any mets are paranoid about social media or think that it's a "threat". At least I think it degrades public perception of the community. We have so many bogus forecasts getting posted online that people just attribute all of it to "them"... the old "they're forecast 12" of snow". Who's "they"?

 

 

Exactly. It's really hard to provide context in a Tweet or a Facebook post. More often than not a graphic is swiped or taken out of context and then shared. The associated text/description is ignored or just not seen.

 

 

While ratings do make money there aren't many TV mets (there certainly are some) who "hype" a storm for ratings purposes. I've never worked with one. I think TV weathercasters who aren't degreed meteorologists or ones who have limited knowledge of how the atmosphere works more detrimental to the field.

 

As for generating page likes and Twitter followers you're absolutely correct. It would probably be beneficial to my career to hype on social media and generate a larger following. I'd rather have fewer followers and the ones who do follow me respect my work. There are many TV mets and hobbyists who are all about the "likes" and "followers" - it's easy to pick out who they are.

 

 

Yup - the whole field suffers. We all look like a bunch of idiots. For all the people who expected 12"-18" of snow on Monday when there's nary a flake that gets attributed to the field as a whole. 

 

 

lol

 

 

Ryan I saw what you guys went through with the perception of what you never predicted in the first place with this event on facebook.  That's what I mean about the cumulative effect of the non-stop hype at times.   It jades the entire message.  Your station never predicted those totals but yet you had to correct people that maybe thought you did, and it's kind of the same thing here. 

 

Weenies in general will forgive the forecaster that constantly overhypes but sometimes hits a homerun but will badger the forecaster that is conservative and is right most of the time, but sometimes misses too low.  It's a funny thing.

 

Meanwhile the public just likes to skewer whoever is wrong up or down side.

 

I'm puzzled by this one north of NYC/LI, I just don't see where all the hype came from after about Thursday aside of really 1 run and the GFS.  But it may go back to what you're saying about certain forecasters and from there the hype parade takes off, I really don't know.

[CoastalWx]

Toss the 2/28 0z Euro for the 2/27 12z Euro, and throw out the GFS completely and use the GEM (which was showing 3-6 S of the Pike) to 50/50 blend with the the 2/27 12z Euro.

If all we had done was that, we would have easily seen that this one was only flurries on Friday morning. Got it.

LOL, it's that simple! We've never had models bump south and then back north 30-50 miles. Never.

[CT Rain]

Ryan I saw what you guys went through with the perception of what you never predicted in the first place with this event on facebook.  That's what I mean about the cumulative effect of the non-stop hype at times.   It jades the entire message.  Your station never predicted those totals but yet you had to correct people that maybe thought you did, and it's kind of the same thing here. 

 

Weenies in general will forgive the forecaster that constantly overhypes but sometimes hits a homerun but will badger the forecaster that is conservative and is right most of the time, but sometimes misses too low.  It's a funny thing.

 

Meanwhile the public just likes to skewer whoever is wrong up or down side.

 

I'm puzzled by this one north of NYC/LI, I just don't see where all the hype came from after about Thursday aside of really 1 run and the GFS.  But it may go back to what you're saying about certain forecasters and from there the hype parade takes off, I really don't know.

 

Yeah it was an odd one. All week we mentioned the potential for a winter storm on Monday but I think the message may have gotten away from us a bit? I know we did stories on Friday about people sick of the snow and towns scrambling to make sure they had salt supplies (due to the shortage) - so sometimes that can make the snow "possibility" seem like a snow "certainty" to viewers.

 

It's the constant noise of hype that is drowning out the reasonable voices. Unfortunately, it's not just the weenies. I see quite a bit of hype and terrible meteorology from TV weathercasters. Suddenly, their message that was relegated to one channel and one time slot can now be amplified across a region on twitter/facebook. I've even seen snow maps from Philadelphia TV stations (who haven't given any thought to where to draw a polygon north of central NJ - and why would they?) get used by people in CT to say holy crap we're getting 6"-10" of snow. 

 

Communication is much more difficult than it was 5-10 years ago. While social media is great for those with an interest in weather I think it does more harm than good for the general public. 

[weathafella]

People panicking because snow melts int he sun in march......well all righty then...

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Toss the 2/28 0z Euro for the 2/27 12z Euro, and throw out the GFS completely and use the GEM (which was showing 3-6 S of the Pike) to 50/50 blend with the the 2/27 12z Euro.

If all we had done was that, we would have easily seen that this one was only flurries on Friday morning. Got it.

 

No that's not what I'm saying.   What I'm saying is there was never any call for the hype that this storm received north of LI and NYC.  There were people on TV talking about school closings for Monday on THURSDAY. 

 

Of all the maps and things discussed not one person commented on the HPC map at the time.  It showed a moderate event for EXTREME south coastal New England and a pedestrian event everywhere else.  

 

The GGEM by and large over most of its runs in tight was NBD for most of New England.  This went from being a big hit for PF to a big hit for DC and there were many that refused to acknowledge that march south.

 

Nobody expected this would be a glorified flizzard in SNE but I think too many expected this was going to be a major hit for SNE which hasn't been in the cards on a majority of the models for days and days.

[CoastalWx]

People panicking because snow melts int he sun in march......well all righty then...

I know, the travesty.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

LOL, it's that simple! We've never had models bump south and then back north 30-50 miles. Never.

 

Bump south from a jackpot of Stowe to a jackpot of DC?  

 

And I disagree with you on the theory of this bumping north.  That's as simplistic as the -8c or 1030 rule you guys mock.

 

The writing was on the wall that the GFS/wetter solutions were toast IMO later on the 27th when it finally flopped over on that energy coming down out of Canada.  At that point it was like watching a ball of yarn unwind.  The GFS "caved" significantly on the drop from 102 to 90 hours and you can see that hear but FTMP nobody commented on it.  Once it made that shift it was only a matter of time as it unwinded on it's wetter solutions almost run by run.  (energy came in hot right at us vs west...and at that point squashed the system)  Granted I didn't think it was going to get to this extreme but a whiff was a possibility and I said it then too.

 

Too often when these things go wrong it's like the previous 40 pages didn't happen in the wrap up.  Destined to repeat if we don't learn from mistakes etc etc.  

[Damage In Tolland]

The point was today was supposed to feature crashing temps and clouds with snowshowers . Instead it's turned into a clear sunny mild afternoon

[Typhoon Tip]

Euro was too far north, this is from around the 27th...at about this point the GGEM was WAY south...but as it turns out (from memory) much closer to reality.   Remove the GFS from the equation and a compromise of these other two models would have been pretty good.  HPC wasn't far off on Thursday either....Euro/HPC were too far north at that range but not terrible.  Where the expectation came for a major NE snow....??

 

The failure here is instead of latching onto the multi-day south trend, everyone latched onto the one run that jogged north again I think it was Thursday night which proved to be a blip.  Neither one of these depictions was a major or even moderate storm for the vast majority of New England...and these were Thursday.

 

and hpc 

 

 

 

This is a common approach taken by those that are "interested" in weather, less Meteorology.  

 

We've been around this discussion a few hundred times over the years, ... and not intending to single anyone out, the fact of the matter is ... a forum open to the public attracts all types.  That means by shear weight of numbers, there are less Meteorologists and/or responsible consumers.  Of course, there are Meteorologist out there who are model-hugging, latching onto "glitch" solutions, merely because they pose a solution they want to see happen. In fact there is probably some degree (no pun intended) of that idiosyncratic taint in everyone. However, the majority of Mets are really more in pursuit of the veracious forecast.  Everyone else latches on to every dotted i and crossed t, even the intonation of the on-camera Meteorologist's voice, or a singe word chosen by poster here, to justify designing their impressions of a would-be storm.  

 

This entire thread should be clipped from this forum in its entirety, and transplanted to ...oh, any forum that contains Washington DC users.  They would get a hoot out of the emotional roller-coasting since page one, taking a tedious 30-page circuitous route a destination of deeper blues than any arctic air mass we've endured this cold season. If nothing else, it really is a nice time-dependent experiment that exposes people's odd neurosis of giving their mood-proxy over to the vagaries of the weather .. something that's often led me to distraction and I hate.

 

No, scratch that, it's really more like the vagaries of the models.  When I think back over lore, the actual events really can even disappoint? Folks are actually more accepting, "...but I'll take my 5" !"  

 

But hell hath no fury like a model and Met follower left to wander sightless through the smoldering aftermath of their crushed and shattered fantasies. There's really two heads to this serpent:  one head's venom is that silliness of allowing the weather to dictate one's mirth; the other head's venom is not truly understanding that even for the more talent forecaster or technological advancement (model) out there, forecasting is an imperfect science, where one can only realistically look for better than 50% accuracy.        

[Damage In Tolland]

This sun coming out is a bad bad sign for NYC posters ..dry air is just killing this thing. I think now even NYC sees nothing tonight. Radar looks horrific

[CoastalWx]

Bump south from a jackpot of Stowe to a jackpot of DC?

And I disagree with you on the theory of this bumping north. That's as simplistic as the -8c or 1030 rule you guys mock.

The writing was on the wall that the GFS/wetter solutions were toast IMO later on the 27th when it finally flopped over on that energy coming down out of Canada. At that point it was like watching a ball of yarn unwind. The GFS "caved" significantly on the drop from 102 to 90 hours and you can see that hear but FTMP nobody commented on it. Once it made that shift it was only a matter of time as it unwinded on it's wetter solutions almost run by run. (energy came in hot right at us vs west...and at that point squashed the system) Granted I didn't think it was going to get to this extreme but a whiff was a possibility and I said it then too.

Too often when these things go wrong it's like the previous 40 pages didn't happen in the wrap up. Destined to repeat if we don't learn from mistakes etc etc.

No, a 30-50 mile bump north as I said...you know the same science and logic that turned you to rain in many events in 2011. I guess you are better than myself, Will, and Ryan. And nobody said it was a lock....we all acknowledged the trends south as Will even mentioned Friday morning. It was also at this time where we started seeing even more of a southward push. Our thoughts were mostly Thursday into Friday morning and then the 12z runs solidified the srn trend. Models notoriously don't handle srn stream systems well. It's why many of us were able to nail the Nina systems of 2007 an 2008 as well as gauge the trend for 2011. Our in house forecast for Logan wasn't even close to advisory snow in the first place. You could not ignore the model data, but I don't see the harm in acknowledging the notorious behavior of these systems based on previous experience.

[CoastalWx]

The point was today was supposed to feature crashing temps and clouds with snowshowers . Instead it's turned into a clear sunny mild afternoon

No, model temps yesterday were above freezing until late day. It won't get cold until tonight.

[powderfreak]

Gonna be some massive melting with this unforecasted sun this afternoon. Temps all above 32

 

I was surprised its so warm down there... I thought the whole reason the storm went south was because the cold air was coming in more robust.  Surprised to see a lot of mid-upper 30s now in SNE, must be that sun.  It really does change things this time of year.  Sun and 37F vs. precipitating and 27F. 

[dryslot]

That 1st batch looks to be mostly rain for DC

[Damage In Tolland]

I was surprised its so warm down there... I thought the whole reason the storm went south was because the cold air was coming in more robust. Surprised to see a lot of mid-upper 30s now in SNE, must be that sun. It really does change things this time of year. Sun and 37F vs. precipitating and 27F.

Yeah no one forecast this torch today.

[Typhoon Tip]

Kevin's just one of those that allows the weather to guide his sense of worth of the universe, and when the weather then (inevitably) betrays, he gets disgruntled and can't look at things fairly.

 

First of all, whatever is/was supposed to happen as far N as NYC, it wasn't supposed to begin for 12 more hours. That's plenty of time in a flat progressive flow dominated by front side dry air, for some erosion and sky-lights. Totally normal. When the more serious stuff arrives in the N MA, it will dim the skies quickly, and not long before ...whatever falls starts falling.  

 

Get a load of DCA on the NAM... over an inch of melted equivalent.  BL looks pretty warm there, and their DPs are only in the upper 20s. So WB may not be cold enough in the earlier innings of this event. We'll see.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

This is a common approach taken by those that are "interested" in weather, less Meteorology.  

 

We've been around this discussion a few hundred times over the years, ... and not intending to single anyone out, the fact of the matter is ... a forum open to the public attracts all types.  That means by shear weight of numbers, there are less Meteorologists and/or responsible consumers.  Of course, there are Meteorologist out there who are model-hugging, latching onto "glitch" solutions, merely because they pose a solution they want to see happen. In fact there is probably some degree (no pun intended) of that idiosyncratic taint in everyone. However, the majority of Mets are really more in pursuit of the veracious forecast.  Everyone else latches on to every dotted i and crossed t, even the intonation of the on-camera Meteorologist's voice, or a singe word chosen by poster here, to justify designing their impressions of a would-be storm.  

 

This entire thread should be clipped from this forum in its entirety, and transplanted to ...oh, any forum that contains Washington DC users.  They would get a hoot out of the emotional roller-coasting since page one, taking a tedious 30-page circuitous route a destination of deeper blues than any arctic air mass we've endured this cold season. If nothing else, it really is a nice time-dependent experiment that exposes people's odd neurosis of giving their mood-proxy over to the vagaries of the weather .. something that's often led me to distraction and I hate.

 

No, scratch that, it's really more like the vagaries of the models.  When I think back over lore, the actual events really can even disappoint? Folks are actually more accepting, "...but I'll take my 5" !"  

 

But hell hath no fury like a model and Met follower left to wander sightless through the smoldering aftermath of their crushed and shattered fantasies. There's really two heads to this serpent:  one head's venom is that silliness of allowing the weather to dictate one's mirth; the other head's venom is not truly understanding that even for the more talent forecaster or technological advancement (model) out there, forecasting is an imperfect science, where one can only realistically look for better than 50% accuracy.        

 

I agree with most all of what you said.

 

No, a 30-50 mile bump north as I said...you know the same science and logic that turned you to rain in many events in 2011. I guess you are better than myself, Will, and Ryan. And nobody said it was a lock....we all acknowledged the trends south as Will even mentioned Friday morning. It was also at this time where we started seeing even more of a southward push. Our thoughts were mostly Thursday into Friday morning and then the 12z runs solidified the srn trend. Models notoriously don't handle srn stream systems well. It's why many of us were able to nail the Nina systems of 2007 an 2008 as well as gauge the trend for 2011. Our in house forecast for Logan wasn't even close to advisory snow in the first place. You could not ignore the model data, but I don't see the harm in acknowledging the notorious behavior of these systems based on previous experience.

 

The most notorious of behaviors in this season has been for PF to get whiffed and SNE to be the focus, or at times get fringed when the PV was digging in its heels.

 

Once it became more clear that it was taking a straight shot at us vs the more indirect initial route of the GFS it looked like this was following the pattern of earlier systems this season.

 

How many times historically have we had subzero record cold coming in and a snowstorm in March?  Not often I'd think.

 

You're being overly sensitive in your comments.  I busted too, although I thought it would be more confined I didn't think I'd get under an inch or two.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah no one forecast this torch today.

Taste it. I recall model temps in the upper 30s the other day. Read twitter less.

[powderfreak]

Bump south from a jackpot of Stowe to a jackpot of DC?  

 

 

We may jackpot anyway, but from an entirely different way, haha... a lot of the hill towns and mountains up here have picked up 2-6" last night and this morning as the boundary sagged southward.

[Damage In Tolland]

Taste it. I recall model temps in the upper 30s the other day. Read twitter less.

Its 33

[Hambone]

Pushing 40 here with a peek a boo sun.

[CoastalWx]

I agree with most all of what you said.

The most notorious of behaviors in this season has been for PF to get whiffed and SNE to be the focus, or at times get fringed when the PV was digging in its heels.

Once it became more clear that it was taking a straight shot at us vs the more indirect initial route of the GFS it looked like this was following the pattern of earlier systems this season.

How many times historically have we had subzero record cold coming in and a snowstorm in March? Not often I'd think.

You're being overly sensitive in your comments. I busted too, although I thought it would be more confined I didn't think I'd get under an inch or two.

You are also forgetting the Feb storms that came north.

We can have plenty of cold early march storms. A good high will do that. Hell we had an April powder bomb with temps in the 20s in 1982. That argument isn't strong. Again, a 30-50 mile jog north more than 72 hrs out is a very reasonable thing to acknowledge. I think you are somehow saying everyone just ignored models and forcasyed 6-12 to the pike. I didn't see that at all. There is the difference between wishcasting mixed precip to CT and just acknowledging prior behavior of these systems. I even said yesterday that the suppression idea was lurking in the back of my head.

[powderfreak]

Yeah no one forecast this torch today.

 

 

I don't know about no one, but you may be onto something as the BOX AFD from yesterday afternoon was pegging highs ranging from mid-20s to mid-30s.

 

REGARDING TEMPS FOR SUN...LEANED ON THE LATEST CONSENSUS GUIDANCE

WHICH WAS A LITTLE COOLER THAN STRAIGHT MOS. REASONING IS THAT

LATEST MODELS SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH

WOULD SUGGEST MORE CLOUD COVER AND A SLOWER TEMP INCREASE. THIS

SUGGESTS HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

 

[dendrite]

Euro south again...lol.

[powderfreak]

You are also forgetting the Feb storms that came north.

We can have plenty of cold early march storms. A good high will do that. Hell we had an April powder bomb with temps in the 20s in 1982. That argument isn't strong. Again, a 30-50 mile jog north more than 72 hrs out is a very reasonable thing to acknowledge. I think you are somehow saying everyone just ignored models and forcasyed 6-12 to the pike. I didn't see that at all. There is the difference between wishcasting mixed precip to CT and just acknowledging prior behavior of these systems. I even said yesterday that the suppression idea was lurking in the back of my head.

 

You guys have been very steady in your approach to various systems this year... you mets have touted that southern stream storms "tend" to want to tick north (be it from the available juice and convection or something causing the ridge to build a bit more or whatever), and the northern streams like to trend south.  That's not new knowledge to anyone who has been reading this board this season.

 

Its not like just this one storm you guys were trying to wish it north, every southern stream system this season has had those caveats.

[Cold Miser]

Gonna be some massive melting with this unforecasted sun this afternoon. Temps all above 32

lol.

This coming from the guy who would normally argue that mid-40's is barely a pack killer.

 

Just embrace the non-events of the past week and hope for a mid-March mauler, or hide, under your holly bushes til April 15th, armed with bags and bags of Lesco waiting for the right temps and moment to pollute the landscape.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

You are also forgetting the Feb storms that came north.

We can have plenty of cold early march storms. A good high will do that. Hell we had an April powder bomb with temps in the 20s in 1982. That argument isn't strong. Again, a 30-50 mile jog north more than 72 hrs out is a very reasonable thing to acknowledge. I think you are somehow saying everyone just ignored models and forcasyed 6-12 to the pike. I didn't see that at all. There is the difference between wishcasting mixed precip to CT and just acknowledging prior behavior of these systems. I even said yesterday that the suppression idea was lurking in the back of my head.

 

I thought most were ignoring a south push in favor of cherry picked runs inside of D4. Maybe that isn't a reflection of the group at large but instead my perception.    Again I think once the seed was planted of this being a big system the mentality changes from "small to big" and we start looking for reasons why it can be a big hitter again, vs if we looked at this mostly inside of 3-4 days it was mostly a more confined system with only occasional spurts of life in some runs. 

 

 (I'm specifically giving props to Powderfreak, Fella and Harvey Leonard) because at various times here or on SM they mentioned and defended the idea that this was overwhelmingly trending south after those initial way north runs.

 

A larger issue is what happened to the models again that really none were close to perfect.  The GGEM is definitely becoming a more useful tool...but what has happened to the Euro and why is the GFS getting worse and worse?

[Damage In Tolland]

lol.

This coming from the guy who would normally argue that mid-40's is barely a pack killer.

Just embrace the non-events of the past week and hope for a mid-March mauler, or hide, under your holly bushes til April 15th, armed with bags and bags of Lesco waiting for the right temps and moment to pollute the landscape.

Well in Jan and most of Feb sun and 35-40 does nothing but now this sun kills. It's as strong as late August. Most of the area here is shade so it's fine except out front by the road.. But I'm really thinking we don't see grass until April sometime. Provided of course Scooters right and there's still a few more snowstorms in the pipeline. You could get a sunburn today if you laid out on your snow banks. No joke