ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Very light snow still. A coating The amount if hype this storm got to the general public is comical. My boss at work was talking about at least 12 inches on Friday. They also were talking whether or not they would be canceling athletic activities for Monday. This is part of the reason why I wasn't getting really excited for a 120-144 hour prog that showed us getting over a foot. Enough people start hyping those solutions and we see the public set unrealistic, or at the very least, extremely precarious expectations. I saw some posters criticizing the idea of posting or stressing uncertainty in the storm discussion thread. If people do not like that, then meteorology is a bad hobby for them...or certainly they shouldn't quit their day job. There's a reason why sometimes we're going balls to the wall at 72 hours and other times when its an honest crapshoot like this one was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I thought posting about all the uncertainty actually would allow people who aren't mets see all we have to go through...but yeah...it was sort of disappointing to see some criticize that. The opposite effect of what I thought it may show..lol. The media is out of control and it's getting worse. It's irresponsible and downright false. Calling this a "superstorm" and that 100 million people are in its path does nothing, but drive home fear and unnecessary hype to what is just an every day low traversing the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I thought posting about all the uncertainty actually would allow people who aren't mets see all we have to go through...but yeah...it was sort of disappointing to see some criticize that. The opposite effect of what I thought it may show..lol. The media is out of control and it's getting worse. It's irresponsible and downright false. Calling this a "superstorm" and that 100 million people are in its path does nothing, but drive home fear and unnecessary hype to what is just an every day low traversing the US. The funny part is even at the most "robust" solution if you combine population and heavy snow....this storm was pretty darn average as far as winter storms go. Maybe a thin stripe of 10"+ in some areas, but this never had anything close to "Super" about it. As far as uncertainty goes, I think too many believe that all forecasts as generally equal. If you can correctly nail some storms at 84 hours out, then it means you should be able to do this for just about every storm. We do not look at ensemble clustering just for the hell of it....there's an actual benefit to studying them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Not really comical imho, it's what the models were showing up to Friday. This storm went south and it went south hard on the models. Nobody is talking about canceling anything at this point. Well I mean, I didn't see any pro forecasters throwing out amounts then. This information comes from weenies on social media who put out a snow map and stuff like that. The fact that no real amounts were even out on Friday, shows that the hype was over board if everyone was talking about 12"+ It's almost irrelevant now because we aren't getting anything, but the setup was always fragile. It took a turn for the worst, but we have been lucky this year, so we take it in stride Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 This is part of the reason why I wasn't getting really excited for a 120-144 hour prog that showed us getting over a foot. Enough people start hyping those solutions and we see the public set unrealistic, or at the very least, extremely precarious expectations. I saw some posters criticizing the idea of posting or stressing uncertainty in the storm discussion thread. If people do not like that, then meteorology is a bad hobby for them...or certainly they shouldn't quit their day job. There's a reason why sometimes we're going balls to the wall at 72 hours and other times when its an honest crapshoot like this one was. Not posters though...poster, and nobody agreed with him. The general public has been aware of the existence of weather models since Sandy. It is just another step in our internet-driven society. Chances are that over time, people will also start to understand their limits as they go further out in their runs. The general public doesn't like to feel burned by inaccurate information any more than professionals or hobbyists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Well I mean, I didn't see any pro forecasters throwing out amounts then. This information comes from weenies on social media who put out a snow map and stuff like that. The fact that no real amounts were even out on Friday, shows that the hype was over board if everyone was talking about 12"+ It's almost irrelevant now because we aren't getting anything, but the setup was always fragile. It took a turn for the worst, but we have been lucky this year, so we take it in stride By weenies, you mean NCEP? My point is that the data is available for free access. People post it and read about it on social media because they are aware of it and interested in it. Social media itself is just the medium of open communication online and it is a natural evolution of the internet. This is all pretty new to people still. I believe the general public will continue to learn when weather model data can and can't be relied upon, but not overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 This is part of the reason why I wasn't getting really excited for a 120-144 hour prog that showed us getting over a foot. Enough people start hyping those solutions and we see the public set unrealistic, or at the very least, extremely precarious expectations. I saw some posters criticizing the idea of posting or stressing uncertainty in the storm discussion thread. If people do not like that, then meteorology is a bad hobby for them...or certainly they shouldn't quit their day job. There's a reason why sometimes we're going balls to the wall at 72 hours and other times when its an honest crapshoot like this one was. I completely agree with you. There were only a few people here that were completely disregarding flags. I think in general everyone was pretty cautious about this storm. Hopeful, but still cautious and realistic. My main point is social media is making it almost impossible to be a meteorologist. The pressure to get out numbers is greater than ever before, and is partially driven by weenies saying we are getting 3 feet of snow 7 days out. When most of the public is on social media, they see that. When an actual forecast is made my someone like you or Scott, people chastise you because "they heard three feet on twitter", and why are we getting less, or what a bad forecast. It's really making mets jobs that much harder, the public is very gullible and fall for that crap. When people at my school are talking about "at least a school", the only place they could have seen that on Friday morning was social media Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I completely agree with you. There were only a few people here that were completely disregarding flags. I think in general everyone was pretty cautious about this storm. Hopeful, but still cautious and realistic. My main point is social media is making it almost impossible to be a meteorologist. The pressure to get out numbers is greater than ever before, and is partially driven by weenies saying we are getting 3 feet of snow 7 days out. When most of the public is on social media, they see that. When an actual forecast is made my someone like you or Scott, people chastise you because "they heard three feet on twitter", and why are we getting less, or what a bad forecast. It's really making mets jobs that much harder, the public is very gullible and fall for that crap. When people at my school are talking about "at least a school", the only place they could have seen that on Friday morning was social media I've seen social media try to influence our forecasts and grumblings about us putting something out to clients just because "the media is getting word of it.." My response to that is a flat out no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 By weenies, you mean NCEP? My point is that the data is available for free access. People post it and read about it on social media because they are aware of it and interested in it. Social media itself is just the medium of open communication online and it is a natural evolution of the internet. This is all pretty new to people still. I believe the general public will continue to learn when weather model data can and can't be relied upon, but not overnight. Good point, it is pretty much a learning curve. In the mean time, it will be a crapshoot though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I've seen social media try to influence our forecasts and grumblings about us putting something out to clients just because "the media is getting word of it.." My response to that is a flat out no. Yeah it's ridiculous how media driven this stuff had become. And like you referenced, it doesn't help when a couple of kids who have 10,000 likes on Facebook start hyping a historic storm from Florida to New England 10 days out. I don't envy your work, especially with people like that coming out of the wood work more and more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Seems the new guidance suppressed the storm even further. I changed my daughters flight from BOS-PHL to BOS-CLT. Now I'm worried that Charlotte will have worse weather than Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Meh, social media = the general public. It's just easier than it ever has been to access and share information quickly and without geographic restraints. And it's only going to change in the future in one direction. Mets just need to learn how to use the medium effectively to communicate the same meteorological messages they always have. Events, or lack thereof, like this one will actually help reaffirm the meteorological community's status as experts and the most accurate source of information. Edit: many mets have already. Just stay the course and don't give in to the pressure to stay ahead of inaccurate forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Honestly I think all this anti social media stuff posted by media and Mets who make a living by views has some financial underlings, not believing all who say they want to get it right. Underneath it all what they really want is for us to get it from them and get it from them first. The holier than thou attitude is particularly funny when those comments are made by those same Mets who bust regularly. Someday a 3/1/1 will come along and it will be hilarious to watch the carnage. Lucky for us we have this subgroup and dont need the national media Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 This is part of the reason why I wasn't getting really excited for a 120-144 hour prog that showed us getting over a foot. Enough people start hyping those solutions and we see the public set unrealistic, or at the very least, extremely precarious expectations. I saw some posters criticizing the idea of posting or stressing uncertainty in the storm discussion thread. If people do not like that, then meteorology is a bad hobby for them...or certainly they shouldn't quit their day job. There's a reason why sometimes we're going balls to the wall at 72 hours and other times when its an honest crapshoot like this one was. It's becoming a pandemic and the problem is hype sells. It sells advertising, it sells clicks, it sells views. So it'll continue and it'll get worse. Not really comical imho, it's what the models were showing up to Friday. This storm went south and it went south hard on the models. Nobody is talking about canceling anything at this point. No it's what some of the models were showing up to Friday. Other models were well suppressed most of the time. There were plenty of red flags they were just ignored again. If the GFS was unplugged some of this would end, it's not a credible model this winter. The funny part is even at the most "robust" solution if you combine population and heavy snow....this storm was pretty darn average as far as winter storms go. Maybe a thin stripe of 10"+ in some areas, but this never had anything close to "Super" about it. As far as uncertainty goes, I think too many believe that all forecasts as generally equal. If you can correctly nail some storms at 84 hours out, then it means you should be able to do this for just about every storm. We do not look at ensemble clustering just for the hell of it....there's an actual benefit to studying them. suppression has been the dominant feature of this winter WHEN cold air is established and not retreating. I thought that would have garnered more respect from the forecasters in general but it didn't. (well aside of Harvey Leonard). And granted NOBODY expected this to end up this far south. I figured SNE coastal regions would be on the northern edge of the serious stuff, not getting the equivalent of a PF brush job. Overall though as someone that read but didn't' post in the lead up to this event I'd say this subregion was in general pretty bullish. I realize that mainly was a few posters that skewed the overall impression. Snowing right now for the third time in a week and although it won't amount to much, it's wintry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Honestly I think all this anti social media stuff posted by media and Mets who make a living by views has some financial underlings, not believing all who say they want to get it right. Underneath it all what they really want is for us to get it from them and get it from them first. The holier than thou attitude is particularly funny when those comments are made by those same Mets who bust regularly. Someday a 3/1/1 will come along and it will be hilarious to watch the carnage. Lucky for us we have this subgroup and dont need the national media It's fine if it's used responsibly, but unfortunately many times it's not. It's literally degrading the science. The met community works hard to get it right and develop a delicate balance of warning the public yet not hyping, and then comes along Joe T Weenie posting incorrect snow algorithms and 7 day forecasts that will never happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Turning into a sunny afternoon for the region lol. Dry air just eating up everything..Couldn't even keep clouds around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Honestly I think all this anti social media stuff posted by media and Mets who make a living by views has some financial underlings, not believing all who say they want to get it right. Underneath it all what they really want is for us to get it from them and get it from them first. The holier than thou attitude is particularly funny when those comments are made by those same Mets who bust regularly. Someday a 3/1/1 will come along and it will be hilarious to watch the carnage. Lucky for us we have this subgroup and dont need the national media Of course, hype sells. The news stations want round the clock coverage and viewers tuning in to see the doom...it boosts ratings and that sells advertising and drives revenue. The same is true of those promoting their pages. Whether it's a direct revenue source from advertising that goes steadily upward with views and "hyped" events or the overall social media impact that can then be marketed into sponsorships etc.....it's a huge part of this. Clearly it's not the drive to be right because as we've seen repeatedly this winter these bullish calls aren't leading to higher forecasting success rates. On the same token the failures are doing nothing to mitigate future bullish calls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Meh, social media = the general public. It's just easier than it ever has been to access and share information quickly and without geographic restraints. And it's only going to change in the future in one direction. Mets just need to learn how to use the medium effectively to communicate the same meteorological messages they always have. Events, or lack thereof, like this one will actually help reaffirm the meteorological community's status as experts and the most accurate source of information. Edit: many mets have already. Just stay the course and don't give in to the pressure to stay ahead of inaccurate forecasts. The biggest problem with Social Media is you cannot accurately depict science in 20 words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Yeah it's ridiculous how media driven this stuff had become. And like you referenced, it doesn't help when a couple of kids who have 10,000 likes on Facebook start hyping a historic storm from Florida to New England 10 days out. I don't envy your work, especially with people like that coming out of the wood work more and moreand what is the real effect of that hype, honestly does anyone know, other than NWS having to answer more calls? All it is is the old rumor mill in visual form.Why Mets are threatened by it strikes me as a little paranoid. Yet they themselves perpetuate it by continually tweeting about it and mentioning it in the same social media they rail about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 It's becoming a pandemic and the problem is hype sells. It sells advertising, it sells clicks, it sells views. So it'll continue and it'll get worse. No it's what some of the models were showing up to Friday. Other models were well suppressed most of the time. There were plenty of red flags they were just ignored again. If the GFS was unplugged some of this would end, it's not a credible model this winter. suppression has been the dominant feature of this winter WHEN cold air is established and not retreating. I thought that would have garnered more respect from the forecasters in general but it didn't. (well aside of Harvey Leonard). And granted NOBODY expected this to end up this far south. I figured SNE coastal regions would be on the northern edge of the serious stuff, not getting the equivalent of a PF brush job. Overall though as someone that read but didn't' post in the lead up to this event I'd say this subregion was in general pretty bullish. I realize that mainly was a few posters that skewed the overall impression. Snowing right now for the third time in a week and although it won't amount to much, it's wintry. I don't know anybody who threw numbers out, but a lot of us did think there was a chance to tickle north. This comes from previous experience and science with these things and not some weenie logic because we want snow. Give me a similar setup 100 times and at least 85 of them probably would tickle at least 30-50 milesNorth. This had a 2010 style line push SE and more than anyone thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Turning into a sunny afternoon for the region lol. Dry air just eating up everything..Couldn't even keep clouds around Off and on light snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Off and on light snow here. Look at the viz..Sun will be out even down there in an hour or so.. There's not going to be any snow anywhere in SNE tonight..probably not even NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The biggest problem with Social Media is you cannot accurately depict science in 20 words.Lol Will but Twitter with 160 with pictures is that only social media limit, I disagree though I learn plenty,they also provide links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 It's becoming a pandemic and the problem is hype sells. It sells advertising, it sells clicks, it sells views. So it'll continue and it'll get worse. No it's what some of the models were showing up to Friday. Other models were well suppressed most of the time. There were plenty of red flags they were just ignored again. If the GFS was unplugged some of this would end, it's not a credible model this winter. suppression has been the dominant feature of this winter WHEN cold air is established and not retreating. I thought that would have garnered more respect from the forecasters in general but it didn't. (well aside of Harvey Leonard). And granted NOBODY expected this to end up this far south. I figured SNE coastal regions would be on the northern edge of the serious stuff, not getting the equivalent of a PF brush job. Overall though as someone that read but didn't' post in the lead up to this event I'd say this subregion was in general pretty bullish. I realize that mainly was a few posters that skewed the overall impression. Snowing right now for the third time in a week and although it won't amount to much, it's wintry. For the record, the Fri 2/28 0z Euro had warning snows south of the pike according to Will in this thread, and was also a tick north from the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 For the record, the Fri 2/28 0z Euro had warning snows south of the pike according to Will in this thread, and was also a tick north from the previous run. Both models failed..it wasn't just the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Not saying there weren't red flags. I think most people are planning to go into work tomorrow. Social media allows a quick trigger but also quick adjustment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 For the record, the Fri 2/28 0z Euro had warning snows south of the pike according to Will in this thread, and was also a tick north from the previous run. Euro was too far north, this is from around the 27th...at about this point the GGEM was WAY south...but as it turns out (from memory) much closer to reality. Remove the GFS from the equation and a compromise of these other two models would have been pretty good. HPC wasn't far off on Thursday either....Euro/HPC were too far north at that range but not terrible. Where the expectation came for a major NE snow....?? The failure here is instead of latching onto the multi-day south trend, everyone latched onto the one run that jogged north again I think it was Thursday night which proved to be a blip. Neither one of these depictions was a major or even moderate storm for the vast majority of New England...and these were Thursday. and hpc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KartAnimal29 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Look at the viz..Sun will be out even down there in an hour or so.. There's not going to be any snow anywhere in SNE tonight..probably not even NYC The Sun tried to come out down here for a few min but the clouds filled back in. It is kind of bright out for a cloudy day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 and what is the real effect of that hype, honestly does anyone know, other than NWS having to answer more calls? All it is is the old rumor mill in visual form.Why Mets are threatened by it strikes me as a little paranoid. Yet they themselves perpetuate it by continually tweeting about it and mentioning it in the same social media they rail about. I don't think any mets are paranoid about social media or think that it's a "threat". At least I think it degrades public perception of the community. We have so many bogus forecasts getting posted online that people just attribute all of it to "them"... the old "they're forecast 12" of snow". Who's "they"? The biggest problem with Social Media is you cannot accurately depict science in 20 words. Exactly. It's really hard to provide context in a Tweet or a Facebook post. More often than not a graphic is swiped or taken out of context and then shared. The associated text/description is ignored or just not seen. Of course, hype sells. The news stations want round the clock coverage and viewers tuning in to see the doom...it boosts ratings and that sells advertising and drives revenue. The same is true of those promoting their pages. Whether it's a direct revenue source from advertising that goes steadily upward with views and "hyped" events or the overall social media impact that can then be marketed into sponsorships etc.....it's a huge part of this. Clearly it's not the drive to be right because as we've seen repeatedly this winter these bullish calls aren't leading to higher forecasting success rates. On the same token the failures are doing nothing to mitigate future bullish calls. While ratings do make money there aren't many TV mets (there certainly are some) who "hype" a storm for ratings purposes. I've never worked with one. I think TV weathercasters who aren't degreed meteorologists or ones who have limited knowledge of how the atmosphere works more detrimental to the field. As for generating page likes and Twitter followers you're absolutely correct. It would probably be beneficial to my career to hype on social media and generate a larger following. I'd rather have fewer followers and the ones who do follow me respect my work. There are many TV mets and hobbyists who are all about the "likes" and "followers" - it's easy to pick out who they are. It's fine if it's used responsibly, but unfortunately many times it's not. It's literally degrading the science. The met community works hard to get it right and develop a delicate balance of warning the public yet not hyping, and then comes along Joe T Weenie posting incorrect snow algorithms and 7 day forecasts that will never happen. Yup - the whole field suffers. We all look like a bunch of idiots. For all the people who expected 12"-18" of snow on Monday when there's nary a flake that gets attributed to the field as a whole. Honestly I think all this anti social media stuff posted by media and Mets who make a living by views has some financial underlings, not believing all who say they want to get it right. Underneath it all what they really want is for us to get it from them and get it from them first. The holier than thou attitude is particularly funny when those comments are made by those same Mets who bust regularly. Someday a 3/1/1 will come along and it will be hilarious to watch the carnage. Lucky for us we have this subgroup and dont need the national media lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Gonna be some massive melting with this unforecasted sun this afternoon. Temps all above 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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