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March 2nd/3rd Winter Storm Potential


joey2002

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Kudos to Snowgoose (nyc thread) he had the nads to say he thought this would be surpressed, we like to see someone put their neck out a cpl days ago.

I may bust a bit on my idea's I had earlier today though, I was saying extreme SRN NE and NYC may get hit hard tomorrow night 21-06z by the initial overrunning, but whats started to happen is the vort lobe that was supposed to suppress the main storm has been coming in faster and faster the last 2-3 model cycles, as a result its now suppressing the overrunning and allowing the main event to creep north a bit, the 18Z RGEM was the first to show it, the 00Z continued and now the 00Z GFS jumped on board as well...if that vort lobe continues to speed up and clears completely into NRN New England by 09Z tomorrow night the PHL-NYC corridor could end up getting more snow than I thought on the 2nd wave.

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I may bust a bit on my idea's I had earlier today though, I was saying extreme SRN NE and NYC may get hit hard tomorrow night 21-06z by the initial overrunning, but whats started to happen is the vort lobe that was supposed to suppress the main storm has been coming in faster and faster the last 2-3 model cycles, as a result its now suppressing the overrunning and allowing the main event to creep north a bit, the 18Z RGEM was the first to show it, the 00Z continued and now the 00Z GFS jumped on board as well...if that vort lobe continues to speed up and clears completely into NRN New England by 09Z tomorrow night the PHL-NYC corridor could end up getting more snow than I thought on the 2nd wave.

interesting after all the spiking today and tonight sure would be fun
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Agreed. Usual suspects hyped but the rest of the discussion was pretty much spot on. 

 

 

I think the dialog for this storm was pretty good and most of us described the pros and cons. Yeah there were the typical 1 or 2 posters wishcasting, but it seems like there is a lot of hindsight here. Maybe it's me.

I don't know. there were mets posting graphs with probs of >70% chances of 4 inches and greater than 50% chances of 6 inches or more.I had a met texting me 6-12 or 8-14 for all of CT. Mets were saying they felt a bump north was likely going to happen..and even yesterday morning someone said they couldn't help but feel the NAM had the right idea . Every met and every weenie and every hobbyist busted. Just own up to it

 

It's ok to admit a bust instead of pushing the blame on hype or a few weenies. 

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I don't know. there were mets posting graphs with probs of >70% chances of 4 inches and greater than 50% chances of 6 inches or more.I had a met texting me 6-12 or 8-14 for all of CT. Mets were saying they felt a bump north was likely going to happen..and even yesterday morning someone said they couldn't help but feel the NAM had the right idea . Every met and every weenie and every hobbyist busted. Just own up to it

It's ok to admit a bust instead of pushing the blame on hype or a few weenies.

Why don't you go back and read my posts. I also said the DIALOG of this storm was good with most of us listing pros and cons.

It's not my fault some met forecasts obscene amounts.

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The point is you along with everyone else were incorrect. And to blame me and a few weenies is ridiculous. I busted and I admit it

You were adamant about mixing and this coming north with mixing while none of us were that sure. Should I posts my texts? I had an exchange with Will yesterday. You can bump that.

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