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March 2nd/3rd Winter Storm Potential


joey2002

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I honestly not for one second thought this would happen. Never did i fear suppression Morch with a raging hard postive NAO. I don't ever recall a time when this happened in this setup at this time of year and we at least didn't get some snow.Not seeing flake in SNE from this is painful..but what can you do.

We'll get through this ... all of us ... together.

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I don't think anyone can actually say with a straight face that SNE was out of the game 48 hours ago. For those hoping for a 12"+ storm, that might be true, but there's obviously a big difference between that and 6".

 

 

You won't find a single forecaster who also thought that the heavy stuff might struggle to get to PHL a couple days ago.

 

Maybe but the reality of this winter is at 5+ days throwing out totals is foolish.  I get why it has to be done, but most of the time this winter it's a setup for a phail.  This ended up being no different.  I expected 3-6" here and I think I was far more bearish than most, turns out I will bust high too.  Will I'm not saying you threw out totals, I think you know what I mean.  You warned about the same things many, many times.

 

Lol, hey maybe that's the new way to post, wait until model consensus then say what went wrong

 

Aside of the fact that I was saying this 2-3 days ago you're post is dead on.  In a situation like this where I disagree with the consensus I figured it was best to keep it on the + page.   I think it was Thursday I sent Ray a message telling him this thing was going to get squashed like a bug by the PV.    The overall trend with the GEFS/GFS/NAM crap excluded was kind of clear.  Aside of a bobble or two north this for the most part was a straight south shot as it approached.  Powderfreak has made this point many times, it wasn't long ago he was jackpotted, then CNE, then SNE, then the NMA and now the MA.  Sure there were individual runs that juggled north but overall as Harv said yesterday it was trending south.  I don't think anyone with a straight face can say that wasn't the trend overall.

 

 

Interesting post. Yeah, I've concluded too, without understanding why, that the NAM/GFS do way better in a pattern dominated by Northern stream SW's and the Northern jet such as what we've seen this winter. Where the Euro is still the doctor is with Southern streamers or SW'S that originate like in CA or somewhere like that. The Euro was the first to nail this fail and never wavered.

Sent from my VS980 4G

 

CMC was probably the first to show cirrus smoking here. I remember Scott/Coastalwx using those specific words in a post after one of the CMC runs rolled out.  The Euro was still crushing us that run.   IMO CMC led the charge on the smash job by the energy out of Canada although it too had issues.

 

I am still hoping for a few inches here we will see.  I'm glad I didn't put a ton of time into this, tough year for model/ensemble "consensus"

 

Enjoy the storm guys.

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You know what are completely useless..those stupid CIPS analogs..those things are complete trash.

 

 

The CIPS analogs are only good when the agreement on models is good...because the CIPS analogs beyond 48 hours are derived from the GFS output. If the Euro shows a bomb at 96 hours but the GFS shows a weak suppressed wave...the CIPS analogs will show garbage systems. It happened last year in the Feb blizzard when the GFS was a scraper and the Euro was printing out 3 inches of QPF.

 

When model agreement is fairly high, then the CIPS analogs can be pretty useful.

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I think the dialog for this storm was pretty good and most of us described the pros and cons. Yeah there were the typical 1 or 2 posters wishcasting, but it seems like there is a lot of hindsight here. Maybe it's me.

Agreed. Usual suspects hyped but the rest of the discussion was pretty much spot on. 

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