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March 2nd/3rd Winter Storm Potential

joey2002

By joey2002,
in New England

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted

Couple of notes. As I didn't participate directly in the threads I kind of feel it provided an interesting perspective:

1. Sampling. It's generally true that the data network is solid now to the point where we no longer absolutely need to have features over a UA station to get a good forecast. But for some reason many still seem to think it's critical AND any changes that result will inevitably be positive in terms of snowfall. It's probably a 50/50 split better/worse on the eventual snowy outcome.

2. Ensemble support means very little when it comes to specifics in this pattern beyond 3 days. All it really does is target a threat that may hit somewhere +/- 500 miles and in reality the OP models are good enough at telling us that. This one had good ensemble support most of the way and as each run shifted it was "supported" but the respective ensemble.

3. The GFS and NAM are entirely unreliable in this pattern. If the GFS and GEFS were disregarded 2-3 days ago and a consensus of all other forecasts taken people would be less disappointed today.

4. The UKMET is right about 1 in 10 times when it's over amped.

5. The EURO is merely another model now. When it's right it's terrific but it's had some really poor performances this year.

6. Weenie fights inevitably follow every big disappointment.

This was over two days ago outside of SNE and even there the coast and eastern sections always had the best chance for snow. The general orientation of the precip changed just a little from earlier runs as a lobe on the PV smashes down. CMC stuff led the way with that although it was a smidge overdone it barely ever bought into this being a big deal. CMC will always have a D6-10 mega storm but it's had some good systems this year.

It'll be interesting to track this, I expect a few inches here which will fit the seasonal pattern of these extra suppressed systems.

With the exception that #6 was completely unnecessary, I agree with your thoughts on this one. It's been an interesting evolution if nothing else.

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted

He's terrible. Rip and reader.

With all due respect, your opinion means nothing to me when it comes to this particular meteorologist. He knows his stuff regardless of what you think. Weenie.

Nice blog post by the way. You smelled the meh from 5,000 miles away.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Lol, hey maybe that's the new way to post, wait until model consensus then say what went wrong

 

 

I don't think anyone can actually say with a straight face that SNE was out of the game 48 hours ago. For those hoping for a 12"+ storm, that might be true, but there's obviously a big difference between that and 6".

 

 

You won't find a single forecaster who also thought that the heavy stuff might struggle to get to PHL a couple days ago.

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Randy4Confluence

Randy4Confluence

Posted
Posted

Couple of notes. As I didn't participate directly in the threads I kind of feel it provided an interesting perspective:

1. Sampling. It's generally true that the data network is solid now to the point where we no longer absolutely need to have features over a UA station to get a good forecast. But for some reason many still seem to think it's critical AND any changes that result will inevitably be positive in terms of snowfall. It's probably a 50/50 split better/worse on the eventual snowy outcome.

2. Ensemble support means very little when it comes to specifics in this pattern beyond 3 days. All it really does is target a threat that may hit somewhere +/- 500 miles and in reality the OP models are good enough at telling us that. This one had good ensemble support most of the way and as each run shifted it was "supported" but the respective ensemble.

3. The GFS and NAM are entirely unreliable in this pattern. If the GFS and GEFS were disregarded 2-3 days ago and a consensus of all other forecasts taken people would be less disappointed today.

4. The UKMET is right about 1 in 10 times when it's over amped.

5. The EURO is merely another model now. When it's right it's terrific but it's had some really poor performances this year.

6. Weenie fights inevitably follow every big disappointment.

This was over two days ago outside of SNE and even there the coast and eastern sections always had the best chance for snow. The general orientation of the precip changed just a little from earlier runs as a lobe on the PV smashes down. CMC stuff led the way with that although it was a smidge overdone it barely ever bought into this being a big deal. CMC will always have a D6-10 mega storm but it's had some good systems this year.

It'll be interesting to track this, I expect a few inches here which will fit the seasonal pattern of these extra suppressed systems.

Interesting post. Yeah, I've concluded too, without understanding why, that the NAM/GFS do way better in a pattern dominated by Northern stream SW's and the Northern jet such as what we've seen this winter. Where the Euro is still the doctor is with Southern streamers or SW'S that originate like in CA or somewhere like that. The Euro was the first to nail this fail and never wavered.

Sent from my VS980 4G

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

With all due respect, your opinion means nothing to me when it comes to this particular meteorologist. He knows his stuff regardless of what you think. Weenie.

Nice blog post by the way. You smelled the meh from 5,000 miles away.

 

lol that met is me. 

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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Posted

I don't think anyone can actually say with a straight face that SNE was out of the game 48 hours ago. For those hoping for a 12"+ storm, that might be true, but there's obviously a big difference between that and 6".

 

 

You won't find a single forecaster who also thought that the heavy stuff might struggle to get to PHL a couple days ago.

 

I think all you could say Thursday and Friday is that these kind of setups are fraught with problems. You never know when you're getting to get a PV lobe to swing down and screw ya. It's almost like a coin flip.

 

When the Friday models got more juicy I thought we were in decent shape... I thought the odds of sig snow (6"+) were better than 50/50... by Friday night it was clear the rug was getting pulled out from under this one. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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I think all you could say Thursday and Friday is that these kind of setups are fraught with problems. You never know when you're getting to get a PV lobe to swing down and screw ya. It's almost like a coin flip.

 

When the Friday models got more juicy I thought we were in decent shape... I thought the odds of sig snow (6"+) were better than 50/50... by Friday night it was clear the rug was getting pulled out from under this one. 

 

Pretty much.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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Posted

Pretty much.

 

The "southern stream" storms always come north generally works EXCEPT in a case like this. That PV is a meat grinder - that thing doesn't care what the heck is coming north. 

 

This is also a good example of why climo generally doesn't favor snow in DC. You need a mechanism to keep the storm suppressed... in this case a very anomalous piece of a PV. Sure it can happen but there's a reason why the normal storm track is where it is. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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The "southern stream" storms always come north generally works EXCEPT in a case like this. That PV is a meat grinder - that thing doesn't care what the heck is coming north.

This is also a good example of why climo generally doesn't favor snow in DC. You need a mechanism to keep the storm suppressed... in this case a very anomalous piece of a PV. Sure it can happen but there's a reason why the normal storm track is where it is.

I wasn't even banking on a big jump to the north....just like a 30-50 mile tick north which seemed reasonable yesterday. It always had that suppression fear in the back if my kind though. now the 18z gfs is congrats RIC

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JC-CT

JC-CT

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Posted

The shifts have been pretty size able the last 36 hours to be honest. For an event being like 3 days away.

Yesterday morning models were still printing out possible double digit amounts south or the pike, now those same places may not see a flake

We will see flakes. Any more than that is in question

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Randy4Confluence

Randy4Confluence

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I don't think anyone can actually say with a straight face that SNE was out of the game 48 hours ago. For those hoping for a 12"+ storm, that might be true, but there's obviously a big difference between that and 6".

You won't find a single forecaster who also thought that the heavy stuff might struggle to get to PHL a couple days ago.

Starting about a week ago, I several times posted my worries about being situated so close to the PV even when the storm looked good on the Goofus. Admittedly though, you're right in that no one could have had the notion that this would end up so suppressed.

Sent from my VS980 4G using Tapatalk

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JC-CT

JC-CT

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Starting about a week ago, I several times posted my worries about being situated so close to the PV even when the storm looked good on the Goofus. Admittedly though, you're right in that no one could have had the notion that this would end up so suppressed.

Sent from my VS980 4G

:weenie:
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