CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 From model interpretation. You go dry and I'll go light snow . Good luck to all I didn't go dry, but I don't see 2" on Sunday. Maybe someone gets a half inch if lucky. The only way that changes is if this is pushed up and the snow starts shortly after fropa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Snow day Monday for the kids. I'm thnking things will be slower vs normal at work so time to weenie and head home late afternoon to begin shoveling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Snow day Monday for the kids. I'm thnking things will be slower vs normal at work so time to weenie and head home late afternoon to begin shoveling. Actually have it off so finally can enjoy some snow hopefully. Interesting OKX favoring GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Actually have it off so finally can enjoy some snow hopefully. Interesting OKX favoring GFS.Hopefully you'll be posting and not disappearing during storm like other times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 So looks like Sunday is no issue with flurries and then Monday boom! Kids are going to have school deep into June. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Hopefully you'll be posting and not disappearing during storm like other times Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Looks great from my perspective. How'd the Euro Ensm look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Looks great from my perspective. How'd the Euro Ensm look? A little flatter vs the op, but not that much difference. The differences really exist between the EC and GFS guidance. Perhaps a compromise is in order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 A little flatter vs the op, but not that much difference. The differences really exist between the EC and GFS guidance. Perhaps a compromise is in order. Well either way we get a sizable snowstorm so I'm happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I'd like to see where you got that info. He usually takes what the models have and multiplies it by about 4 or 5x to get his snow amounts. I like that the Euro is a bit more amped up than the other guidance right now...I want some real liquid equivalent in this snow. I've had enough sandstorms that sublimate in 2 days for one winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 He usually takes what the models have and multiplies it by about 4 or 5x to get his snow amounts. I like that the Euro is a bit more amped up than the other guidance right now...I want some real liquid equivalent in this snow. I've had enough sandstorms that sublimate in 2 days for one winter. Euro has about 1-1.2" of QPF from about 20-30 miles north of the pike to 30-40 miles south of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Euro did go a little south from its previous run. Still north of euro with qpf. I think the goalposts are narrowing. Looking great at and around the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Euro did go a little south from its previous run. Still north of euro with qpf. I think the goalposts are narrowing. Looking great at and around the pike. I think its a tad early to get that specific. We are still over 100 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Euro has about 1-1.2" of QPF from about 20-30 miles north of the pike to 30-40 miles south of the pike. Wow, that's a bit more than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Really nothing to really gripe about currently if your south of the pike. That's a great look for this time of year, can't really ask for much better Still a very long way to go, but as is that's 10-12" of snow with no mixing even close to the coast. It will change though. I still worry more about taint than suppression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Could we be entertaining maybe 12-1 or even maybe 14-1 ratios if a colder version was to play out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Euro has about 1-1.2" of QPF from about 20-30 miles north of the pike to 30-40 miles south of the pike. I like to see this push further NW...isn't that the tendency with southern stream storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I like to see this push further NW...isn't that the tendency with southern stream storms? Not even worth quibbling about right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Euro did go a little south from its previous run. Still north of euro with qpf. I think the goalposts are narrowing. Looking great at and around the pike. Perfect track for us. Should put us over 80". I need 10" to catch 2009 for 2nd snowiest during my time on the boards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I like to see this push further NW...isn't that the tendency with southern stream storms? This is also one of the few srn stream storms that has a polar pig to the north. So, the trend may not totally work...but if I had to guess...I'd lean towards the euro even if it's a bit too far north. I'm hesitant to say much more because we still have a lot of moving parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masonwoods Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 A few inches on the euro op to BTV. Probably a 5-9" deal for cental areas of VT and NH into and just south of PWM. 8-12 with the potential for more from srn NH to just north of the south coast. GFS further south and have maybr 8-11 or so from pike south, esp SE MA. 2-4 maybe for central areas of VT and NH and srn ME. 4-8 north of the pike to the NH border. This is just a very broad overview. Nice breakdown! Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 This is also one of the few srn stream storms that has a polar pig to the north. So, the trend may not totally work...but if I had to guess...I'd lean towards the euro even if it's a bit too far north. I'm hesitant to say much more because we still have a lot of moving parts. Thanks. I thought we had a similar storm earlier in the season that had a big high to the north and we still saw it come NW...regardless as you and others have said, we have a long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The GFS/GEFS are further south than all the foreign guidance. It seems to have a penchant for that on southern stream systems. My guess is reality ends up north of that model suite. Details still to be determined though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I recant my former grading regarding this winter. Given the cold and the fact that I have been informed that I am above average snowfall I certainly cant' complain. Add to that the fact that we have snow coming Monday and possibly the end of next week only makes it better. I just wish at some point we could get to snowfall of 150% of climo like other people on here have done... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I recant my former grading regarding this winter. Given the cold and the fact that I have been informed that I am above average snowfall I certainly cant' complain. Add to that the fact that we have snow coming Monday and possibly the end of next week only makes it better. I just wish at some point we could get to snowfall of 150% of climo like other people on here have done... Your snowfall is likely 150% of climo right now..lol. Anyway, hopefully this storm ends up north of where most of the models are currently showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Well as was already pointed out, your variance decreases the further NW you travel. It becomes very difficult to achieve larger standard deviations in already snowy places. The coast will always have the highest variance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Matt Noyes @MattNoyesNECN 3m Greater than 60% chance of plowable snowfall for Southern New England on Monday - summary/details: http://ow.ly/i/4Jrg0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Well as was already pointed out, your variance decreases the further NW you travel. It becomes very difficult to achieve larger standard deviations in already snowy places. The coast will always have the highest variance. 10-11 11-12 pretty much perfectly demonstrate the balance of extremes that coastal New England winters can be. I like where guidance sits right now, GFS bias for progression suggests the final solution will be a bit north of what it has, but I of course still expect a good deal of changes over the next couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 10-11 11-12 pretty much perfectly demonstrate the balance of extremes that coastal New England winters can be. I like where guidance sits right now, GFS bias for progression suggests the final solution will be a bit north of what it has, but I of course still expect a good deal of changes over the next couple days. I thought the euro ensemble looked like a decent compromise, but I probably favor a little more of a consolidated low. Whatever, this far out doesn't mean a whole lot..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The GFS/GEFS are further south than all the foreign guidance. It seems to have a penchant for that on southern stream systems. My guess is reality ends up north of that model suite. Details still to be determined though. Yeah, I struggle with being specific enough in my posts. I was sort of misguiding you on what I meant with my last post. I was more or less posting about where I believe the final areas the system will favor.. I think almost everyone in SNE sees several inches of snow in this one. Again, this is me thinking. I'm not suggesting a lock. It is how I feel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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