forkyfork Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Not quite understanding the tracking weather is painful and need time off from the board posts. Always a learning experience, the alternative of a cutter would hurt more, keeping the cold extends winter sports season is my take. Could be a great storm for Baltimore and SPA areas. Congrats Southern ski areas where it will stay and use it.saturated up to 200 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Man what brutal cold coming up....and what a waste of it. At this point, bring snow or spring. Deep winter cold to hold on to a rotting snow pack that slowly evaporates sucks. Stuck in limbo. Winter as a B at this point. I love the man....and he'll be back with optimism as always. Hype sells. He might be firing up the 2014 lawn thread. Cmc pretty much kills NYC in this threat but a huge event for DC -bwi is growing. Very tasty d6 fwiw. One daughter in Blacksburg, VA, one in Towson, MD. Both should be having a fun time on Monday. I'll be here pondering how much snow the sun might melt on a cold day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The pattern is not going to come close to sniffing anything spring like so accept it. Just hope we can get some moisture....we missed a storm..it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Man what brutal cold coming up....and what a waste of it. The moral of this winter, but you don't need me to say it. However, we always run the risk that when it gets wildly cold, that we see suppression... however, without any cold air, we don't have a chance in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The moral of this winter, but you don't need me to say it. However, we always run the risk that when it gets wildly cold, that we see suppression... however, without any cold air, we don't have a chance in the first place. It's been a great winter here locally. What I mean is that cold usually becomes a precious commodity in March down this way...hence why I said a waste. I hate to see all this cold and nothing really to show. Maybe that changes later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 how much for philly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yes a PV and a vort lobe are different. In only takes a vort lobe to swing SE and bone you...it's not the PV per se. The PV is the reason why it's not cutting through SYR. The shortwave and vorticity on the H5 plots never seemed overly strong though once it got towards the eastern half of the U.S...or at least the trough axis never looked right for this to really come NW. It wasn't like a digging system that was lifting north and could've easily started going negative in tilt. It had that progressive, WSW-ENE type track to the shortwave, which wasn't going to over-powder that vortex. I'm sure in other situations (I don't know what a -NAO would've played into it) if there was any blocking downstream or anything to slow the flow down, maybe it would amplify more. There's just been such a trend this season for things to get squashed or meat-grindered, or just quickly rushed too far east before being able to turn up towards us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Well tough and sad ending to winter. What can you do. We had a good run but all good things end. Onto dewpoints I guess It's hard to give it up esp after March looked so good. I really can't believe it . Though we'd be buried in snow till April. I hate the end but it's reality I lol'd - Hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 It's hard to give it up esp after March looked so good. I really can't believe it . Though we'd be buried in snow till April. I hate the end but it's reality We will have plenty of cut off bombs from apr to june, get your buckets and kids rain gear ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The shortwave and vorticity on the H5 plots never seemed overly strong though once it got towards the eastern half of the U.S...or at least the trough axis never looked right for this to really come NW. It wasn't like a digging system that was lifting north and could've easily started going negative in tilt. It had that progressive, WSW-ENE type track to the shortwave, which wasn't going to over-powder that vortex. I'm sure in other situations (I don't know what a -NAO would've played into it) if there was any blocking downstream or anything to slow the flow down, maybe it would amplify more. There's just been such a trend this season for things to get squashed or meat-grindered, or just quickly rushed too far east before being able to turn up towards us. Well despite the suppression, look how close it comes tot he south coast. If that PV lobe just oriented and lifted a little bit, it would be snowing to KCON. This is one of those deals where you didn't quite need a big and powerful s/w to barrel east. The WAA naturally wants to push north, but the flow is now W-E or even ESE now because of that vort lobe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 This potential had numerous, numerous, red flags with it. I really couldn't believe some of what was being said on social media regarding this system, especially given how very little consistency there was involved. It was best to always play this with extreme caution...as much as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Well despite the suppression, look how close it comes tot he south coast. If that PV lobe just oriented and lifted a little bit, it would be snowing to KCON. This is one of those deals where you didn't quite need a big and powerful s/w to barrel east. The WAA naturally wants to push north, but the flow is now W-E or even ESE now because of that vort lobe. Its fairly similar to how NYC got screwed in 2/2010...the PV itself is not so much the issue but a lobe rotated around at just the wrong time...this lobe is markedly stronger than that one was, however the PV I think is further north as a whole, if we had this same lobe with the 2010 PV I'm not sure even DC sees snow with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Boned is boned, I'll take my chances without one Well we are generally going to go with anything that doesn't support dry, suppressed solutions. Even a cutter through SYR can offer front end snow and CAD ice, especially out your way...while over here cutters always seem to have the possibility of upslope on the backside which can be meh or prolific. For me its more about tracking weather and watching the models with the challenge for forecasting. It is incredibly boring just forecasting cold/dry for days on end, even cutters can end up with net-gains or at least add some QPF to the snowpack. Two weeks of forecasting cold/dry is incredibly boring trying to figure out if the mountain will have a high of 10F or 15F. I wouldn't advocate cutters all the time, haha, but they can at least offer some winter weather and something to monitor up this way (ie. all the Dec/Jan ice storms this season in NNE). Now if we just got 4 feet of fluffy powder, keep the cutter suppressed We can get picky with our needs and wants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Well despite the suppression, look how close it comes tot he south coast. If that PV lobe just oriented and lifted a little bit, it would be snowing to KCON. This is one of those deals where you didn't quite need a big and powerful s/w to barrel east. The WAA naturally wants to push north, but the flow is now W-E or even ESE now because of that vort lobe. True, I was just looking at the latest runs. The isentropic upglide would probably want to push really far north if there was any northerly component to the mid-level flow, but your right in that the flow now has turned so much that its progged to have an almost southerly component at our longitude. I could've seen this getting into the CON or maybe GYX area... I mean back NW third of New England had no shot for days now, because even with a northerly push of WAA, it would get shunted east with the fast flow and nothing to slow and back the mid-level flow. That's sort of been the pattern this season, its just that lobe you are talking about is now preventing it from lifting NE at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 True, I was just looking at the latest runs. The isentropic upglide would probably want to push really far north if there was any northerly component to the mid-level flow, but your right in that the flow now has turned so much that its progged to have an almost southerly component at our longitude. I could've seen this getting into the CON or maybe GYX area... I mean back NW third of New England had no shot for days now, because even with a northerly push of WAA, it would get shunted east with the fast flow and nothing to slow and back the mid-level flow. That's sort of been the pattern this season, its just that lobe you are talking about is now preventing it from lifting NE at all. Heh, I think you mean to reverse these...any type of southerly component would bring the upglide further N (like a WSW wind)...whereas northerly component just squashes the crap out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hiker Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Septicosity appears to be the current trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Man, Euro squashing it even more. Now even NYC appears out of anything more than a couple inches on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Euro is maybe a few hundredths for BDL. Ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Man, Euro squashing it even more. Now even NYC appears out of anything more than a couple inches on that run.even SE PA gets fringed lol but I am sure Forky forecasted that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Heh, I think you mean to reverse these...any type of southerly component would bring the upglide further N (like a WSW wind)...whereas northerly component just squashes the crap out of it. Ahhh yes, haha, I was. You are saying a wind out of the north won't bring warmer air further north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Congrats Cape Hatteras by this time tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 NYC forum is a disaster. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Dc actually does real well good run for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Dc actually does real well good run for themJust going to say that. I think they get a good storm out of this, any remaining shifts will likely be comparatively minor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Lots of spiking going on, pretty tight precipitation path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 NYC forum is a disaster. LOL. Its so unbearable. I may have to move back to Connecticut so I can escape it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 NYC forum is a disaster. LOL. As always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Just going to say that. I think they get a good storm out of this, any remaining shifts will likely be comparatively minor.well we will see been some large shifts in 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The pattern is not going to come close to sniffing anything spring like so accept it. Just hope we can get some moisture....we missed a storm..it happens. You mean we've missed like 4 storms in a row now because of this pattern. Sent from my VS980 4G using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 well we will see been some large shifts in 24 hoursI like where they sit, as much as one could like where DC sits for snow.The heaviest axis is south of them attm which gives them some breathing room for a last minute tick north. If it pushes south more, ptype becomes less of an issue at the onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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