Ginx snewx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Sarcasm? I can't tell....jackpot lOl I wish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 lOl I wishThat's just what the 12z NAM showed verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Man if the total 180 euro is right places in West Virginia Highland of Maryland PA border western Va might be absolutely crushed with feet and feet of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 It's amazing how bad the NAM and SREFs are. It's amazing people pay attention to them still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 That's just what the 12z NAM showed verbatim Nah places like GON have 4.5 I have like 2.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 It's amazing people pay attention to them still. i believe you have stated publicly that you use blends and the NAM being part of that blend? If not , smart move. I do think it did excellent with the convective Windex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 What a turn of events though really. We will find out in about 20 mins if this is over for good. If it is, hopefully we can keep trending it south to get a nice sunny day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 It's amazing people pay attention to them still. I was almost temped to give them like 10% credit this morning....almost. Glad I didn't. Pretty sad when you are less than 48hrs out and they complete sh*t on themselves. Not a solid one either...I'm talking like Chinese food after a night of Jack Daniels type sh*t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 It's amazing people pay attention to them still.It could be equated in many ways to rubbernecking. People know it's bad to look, but you just can't help but slow down to take a peek, even though you know there isn't going to be anything positive to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I give the peeps in our subforum a lot of credit this winter. The NAM was treated as a farce the whole season, the DGEX was barely mentioned, the JMA was only jokingly referenced, and we've all finally tossed the SREFs. I think my biggest disappointment of the model world right now is how useless the SREFs are. We used to use those all the time on the Eastern forum, though I don't remember using them much last season or this season. They were usually one of those "good" ensembles that folks wanted to be on their side to feel confident. Now no one cares at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I think my biggest disappointment of the model world right now is how useless the SREFs are. We used to use those all the time on the Eastern forum, though I don't remember using them much last season or this season. They were usually one of those "good" ensembles that folks wanted to be on their side to feel confident. Now no one cares at all. every single event has turned into a nowcast is whats the saddest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I had almost totally forgotten about the DGEX. Ahhhh. Good times good times Wheeeeee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 i believe you have stated publicly that you use blends and the NAM being part of that blend? If not , smart move. I do think it did excellent with the convective Windex I do find the NAM useful in some situations... This situation not being one of them. Complex synoptic interaction 48+ hours out is not exactly the NAM's strong suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I think my biggest disappointment of the model world right now is how useless the SREFs are. We used to use those all the time on the Eastern forum, though I don't remember using them much last season or this season. They were usually one of those "good" ensembles that folks wanted to be on their side to feel confident. Now no one cares at all. The SREFs went through an upgrade a year or two ago that really has made them struggle in a lot of our winter setups. Unfortunately that gives us oneless reliable piece of guidance in the "inside of 60 hour" range. There was a period in about 2000-2011 when they really were performing well after an upgrade in 2007-2008 or somewhere thereabouts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 At 12z gfs initialization, the Cali low is already stronger than 06z at 6 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The SREFs went through an upgrade a year or two ago that really has made them struggle in a lot of our winter setups. Unfortunately that gives us oneless reliable piece of guidance in the "inside of 60 hour" range. There was a period in about 2000-2011 when they really were performing well after an upgrade in 2007-2008 or somewhere thereabouts. They performed remarkably well this winter vs last winter up until the storm that hit SNE 2 weeks ago, since then however they have been bad with just about every system. The Euro too seems to have gone back to sucking after it had that 1 month period where it did well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 So how about them Red Sox....... LOL Medium range modeling has gone to Mendoza batting averages, too much tinkering and upgrades it appears. oh well, going to have to watch this nowcast style to see if we can get a 50 mile shift in the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The SREFs beyond 42 hrs or so have been pretty bad. Inside 24-36 they can be used for trends and finalizing amounts, but you're better off sticking with the globals at that time...beyond 36-42 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Hoping for a miracle shift is always fret with danger but without hope there is sun cold, well at least there is a glacier to slide on, man are the runs fast, and painful I may add. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Gfs is a total miss outside of extreme s coast. Also watch dry air eating away at northern edge of precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Should be a nice day Monday on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Actually nice to see the areas east of DC hit for once this winter. They've been screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Actually nice to see the areas east of DC hit for once this winter. They've been screwed. Funny how March 1980 was all over the analogs about a wee to 10 days ago in this time period....March 1980 had a big "SE of DC" Special...crushed E VA/RIC. Not all that dissimilar to this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Should be a nice day Monday on the GFS. lol that fell apart really pretty quickly. To think this started off jackpotting me by the Canadian border last Monday, and by Saturday it's a DCA/BWI event. These PVs and the cold has meant business this year. I know I've poo-pood a lot of systems this year but all for the same reason, go cold and if a PV is in the area, go south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Thread unpin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Funny how March 1980 was all over the analogs about a wee to 10 days ago in this time period....March 1980 had a big "SE of DC" Special...crushed E VA/RIC. Not all that dissimilar to this one. The 1 out of 30 times where the PV will squash a srn stream system...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Should be a nice day Monday on the GFS. Dear god what a bust. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Dear god what a bust. Oh well. Kevin told me he'd take me places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 It's over. Amazing bust really. Hopefully we have more chances going forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I get 3 on the GFS and NAM...I might actually be happy with that given the trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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