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March 2nd/3rd Winter Storm Potential


joey2002

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So the NAM went from 0.75-1" QPF north of the Pike last run to 0.1" at 12z.

That is certainly why it is one of the more respected models out there.

 

It's a POS when it comes to synoptics. I guess it's worth all the money put into it because it can nail a line of tstms 8 hrs out.

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So the NAM went from 0.75-1" QPF north of the Pike last run to 0.1" at 12z.

That is certainly why it is one of the more respected models out there.

I give the peeps in our subforum a lot of credit this winter. The NAM was treated as a farce the whole season, the DGEX was barely mentioned, the JMA was only jokingly referenced, and we've all finally tossed the SREFs.
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So the NAM went from 0.75-1" QPF north of the Pike last run to 0.1" at 12z.

That is certainly why it is one of the more respected models out there.

Lol yea, actually this past ten days have seen pretty epic fails from all the suites, Monday, Wed, Monday  , like Scott said at least we had the squalls predicted right, that was the NAM that showed them with long lead, guess its only use is convection. Well whats next? Great call Freeman by the way. 

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I will go to my grave saying this though, better sampling stuff meant nothing here unless you call it better sampling of the PV, the models have stayed the course on the evolution of the moisture just suppressed it due to PV location.

I agree to a point. Subtle timing issues with s/w in Cali played a role too.

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I will go to my grave saying this though, better sampling stuff meant nothing here unless you call it better sampling of the PV, the models have stayed the course on the evolution of the moisture just suppressed it due to PV location.

 

That is an overused weenie term. The sampling idea applies more for the polar areas anyways, not a high traffic area like off the west coast.

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