SnowGoose69 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 That front leading wave idea has been on the meso models...but its hard to trust it yet until global models jump on board. That might be the easier way to get decent snows in this if the main shortwave keeps crapping out on us with each run. Either way, its an interesting convoluted setup. The RGEM does look stronger with the 2nd wave at 48 hours but its impossible to tell how far north its coming, based on the setup it would seem it would ultimately end up north of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PineHillsWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 6z GFS got the mixing line up to Manhattan, 18z GFS has largely a miss north of me. Most outlets have 8 to 12 or 6 to 12 up to Boston at least now, seems like enough of a sharp cutoff on the north end for that to miss if the south trend continues. I think personally it's a burp but with the way this winters gone who knows. I don't know what you are watching for outlets but I saw and heard all the Boston news and NOBODY is talking those numbers. Keep dreaming, most I saw was 6 inches and it was south of Boston (South Coast over to the Cape). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 0z gfs seems to have .1 to .5 region-wide, but it's still a couple days out and models can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 0z gfs seems to have .1 to .5 region-wide, but it's still a couple days out and models can change. 0z GFS looks like a scared dog cowering under the firm, cruel hand of it's PV master. I'm just having a hard time buying that much suppression but I'm heading below zero as I type so maybe the arctic air is not to be dissed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The posts that deserve to go, IMO, are the "X model shows 6-8", but nothing's set in stone and things can change depending on the next model run" ...over and over again. It's literally insanity. The same person/people do this and you know who they are, and THAT adds no value but isn't deleted. I'd rather see "wow" or "wee" pop up as it takes up less space. 0z gfs seems to have .1 to .5 region-wide, but it's still a couple days out and models can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 So much for Kevin's north trend... this is looking worse and worse for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Unless kev hacked the bos news stations nobody i heard is 6/8-12 up to boston. Would love a link to that met forecast Nam says nice overrunning sunday nite for pike region and thats it. I'd be happy to get that Monday stuff (of consequence) on nam ya nam is LL to ginxy to tan or so .. Gfs says maybe a cpl sun nite nada for nyc north monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Sarcasm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 Once the energy comes ashore the Pacific is sampled tonight you'll see it come like 200-300 miles north at 00z Oops... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Unless kev hacked the bos news stations nobody i heard is 6/8-12 up to boston. Would love a link to that met forecast Nam says nice overrunning sunday nite for pike region and thats it. I'd be happy to get that Monday stuff (of consequence) on nam ya nam is LL to ginxy to tan or so .. Gfs says maybe a cpl sun nite nada for nyc north monday I saw 4-8" up to Boston, but that's the highest I've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Sarcasm I know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Not really a great run for this area. Actually kind of crappy. I'll be honest, I don't like where this is heading. The models seem to getting a handle on how strong the PV actually is, and obviously it isn't working in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 I saw 4-8" up to Boston, but that's the highest I've seen. Yeah, I probably wouldn't forecast more than 2-4" though. Brad Field @BradNBCCT 29m first estimate of the Sun. night / Mon. snowfall...forecast is extremely complicated, stay with us on-air, on-line... pic.twitter.com/3FcWLEPSml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 So much for Kevin's north trend... this is looking worse and worse for us. You started the thread so you at least need to hold some vigilant juju through tomorrow's model runs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 To be honest I like Jeremy Reiner of channel 7s map. That is probably not a bad bet at the moment, may even have to drop those numbers a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Not really a great run for this area. Actually kind of crappy. I'll be honest, I don't like where this is heading. The models seem to getting a handle on how strong the PV actually is, and obviously it isn't working in our favor. Yup confluence is damn impressive , even w a a stronger vort this confluence would suppress it as modeled at 0z gfs and this is a trend. Right now we can hope that some anomalous storms strength off Cali translates into model mayham working in our favor but really its more wish casting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 You started the thread so you at least need to hold some vigilant juju through tomorrow's model runs! The way things are looking, this might be the first and last winter storm thread I start, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yup confluence is damn impressive , even w a a stronger vort this confluence would suppress it as modeled at 0z gfs and this is a trend. Right now we can hope that some anomalous storms strength off Cali translates into model mayham working in our favor but really its more wish casting We will see what happens, but some need to be more realistic. This isn't looking as impressive as it was. I don't know if I would forecast a complete whiff, but some nuisance snows are where this is headed IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 We will see what happens, but some need to be more realistic. This isn't looking as impressive as it was. I don't know if I would forecast a complete whiff, but some nuisance snows are where this is headed IMO. Probably got more snow from the squalls yesterday than we'll get from this, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Not really a great run for this area. Actually kind of crappy. I'll be honest, I don't like where this is heading. The models seem to getting a handle on how strong the PV actually is, and obviously it isn't working in our favor. It's already -.0.5 here. Some deep cold entrenched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 It's already -.0.5 here. Some deep cold entrenched. Yup, very impressive for sure. I truthfully thought the extent of the cold was being overdone. Not only is that not the case, it's actually looking more impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Sure anything is possible but we should tomm am either get kev posting some never used model run that trended north or some met text tweet "shabby says 8-14 for ct " either that or "i hope all those that wanted no snow are happy that this looks less " Instead of hoping gfs ens are north ...we should imo hope at least that globals can perk up waa snows sunday nite bc the writing is close to on the wall that is our best shot at advisory snows away from s coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yup confluence is damn impressive , even w a a stronger vort this confluence would suppress it as modeled at 0z gfs and this is a trend. Right now we can hope that some anomalous storms strength off Cali translates into model mayham working in our favor but really its more wish casting Just have to hope it's more juiced than modeled on the GFS and we get a few inches from the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yup, very impressive for sure. I truthfully thought the extent of the cold was being overdone. Not only is that not the case, it's actually looking more impressive PF may get to enjoy some single digit highs monday and tuesday while admiring the passing cirrus on the slopes of Stowe.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Unless kev hacked the bos news stations nobody i heard is 6/8-12 up to boston. Would love a link to that met forecast Nam says nice overrunning sunday nite for pike region and thats it. I'd be happy to get that Monday stuff (of consequence) on nam ya nam is LL to ginxy to tan or so .. Gfs says maybe a cpl sun nite nada for nyc north monday Inaccuweather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 And to think I and some colleagues canceled some business earlier today for Monday b/c clients were coming from out of state. Seems totally unnecessary now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Inaccuweather This made me laugh. A lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 And to think I and some colleagues canceled some business earlier today for Monday b/c clients were coming from out of state. Seems totally unnecessary now. Eh' give it another day but it is starting to look advisory at best for parts of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Sunday night is definitely starting to look like our best shot for accumulating snows...the main shortwave just isn't going to have enough room to amplify unless that PV to the north changes in orientation with that lobe swinging south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Sunday night is definitely starting to look like our best shot for accumulating snows...the main shortwave just isn't going to have enough room to amplify unless that PV to the north changes in orientation with that lobe swinging south. I told everyone on the NYC forum hope for some type of mesoscale deal to go down in the 51-57 hour period with the overrunning because that may be the best shot, the GFS seems the least excited about that part with the ukmet and RGEM better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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