N. OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 My hunch from the beginning is there was significantly more risk this ended up south and I'm still holding to it, I do think it's going to end up more north than the 18z GFS shows, the 06z GFS was definitely a hiccup and it's very possible the 18z is too i think (not sure) but the orientation and/or positioning of the polar vortex wil really decide how far north precip gets.... but if we can get that Polar vortex more SW and flow alligned for SW-NE i would think models that show this give precip a better shot at hitting SNE with some decent impact /accums like CMC and ukmet to a degree. i mean look at how flat the flow is at 5h on 12z gfs at 12z monday compare with the cmc with polar vortex positioned more SW....w other reliable modeling seems a bit in the middle wrt 12z mon 5h flow. little changes in that orientation as was mentioned seems to mean alot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 i think (not sure) but the orientation and/or positioning of the polar vortex wil really decide how far north precip gets.... but if we can get that Polar vortex more SW and flow alligned for SW-NE i would think models that show this give precip a better shot at hitting SNE with some decent impact /accums like CMC and ukmet to a degree. i mean look at how flat the flow is at 5h on 12z gfs at 12z monday compare with the cmc with polar vortex positioned more SW....w other reliable modeling seems a bit in the middle wrt 12z mon 5h flow. little changes in that orientation as was mentioned seems to mean alot Yes it's not just the PV itself..it's the orientation and any lobe of vorticity coming SE. But those are all inherent risks if the PV is nearby. I can't believe how different the mesos are from the globals. Maybe we'll just have an initial overrunning and then it pushes SE. That was hinted at yesterday too. Or, the mesos are on Toronto mayor type crack...which is possible too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 At least I got a snow squall yesterday. At least we're holding on to some cooler temps to help keep the remaining snow in tact in spite of the strengthening sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 It's clear as day how much stronger the NAM is with the srn vort. That's what we've been speaking of as one of those things to watch. However, excuse me if I don't seem elated that the NAM shows this. Although RGEM seems to agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 SREFs just took a big shift south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 that storm near California looks very potent and is anomalous to say the least. im not so sure this southern stream vort gets sheared out that some models say. 00z model suite is going to be pretty telling, if they're isn't more marked jog north then I would be concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 SREFs just took a big shift south Not the trend we are looking for in SNE. Still not giving up on this one, too many uncertainties still. Maybe we get the overnight models more amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Srefs are loaded with 18z so not surprising they are south vs 12z (15z srefs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Not the trend we are looking for in SNE. Still not giving up on this one, too many uncertainties still. Maybe we get the overnight models more amped. dunno if you can include the srefs in any trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 If the NAM bails, might be time to mail this one in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 ?6z GFS got the mixing line up to Manhattan, 18z GFS has largely a miss north of me. Most outlets have 8 to 12 or 6 to 12 up to Boston at least now, seems like enough of a sharp cutoff on the north end for that to miss if the south trend continues. I think personally it's a burp but with the way this winters gone who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 If the NAM bails, might be time to mail this one in... we cant mail around here if the nam bails. we are way too close to jump on or off based off that thing, it has been complete garbage with this system so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogue Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 6z GFS got the mixing line up to Manhattan, 18z GFS has largely a miss north of me. Most outlets have 8 to 12 or 6 to 12 up to Boston at least now, seems like enough of a sharp cutoff on the north end for that to miss if the south trend continues. I think personally it's a burp but with the way this winters gone who knows. Challenging forecast for sure (or perhaps not if the south trend continues on the 00z model suite). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 If the NAM bails, might be time to mail this one in...Said no one ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack66 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 SREF from 15z to 21z, Keene dropped from 6 inches to 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Said no one ever. anyone who bails over the nam is the medium range uses poor judgement to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 SREF from 15z to 21z, Keene dropped from 6 inches to 4 inches. it's like a slow bleed--by game time they will be zip for many of us unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 it's like a slow bleed--by game time they will be zip for many of us unfortunately what is with all these premature bridge jumping posts?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 it's like a slow bleed--by game time they will be zip for many of us unfortunately NAM looks a little junked up, you purchasing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 what is with all these premature bridge jumping posts??Its the New England forum with less wiggle room on this event? I still think (maybe hope) a lot of us will be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Harvey's map? Not looking good tonight. I don't know what the phuck to think.Will be interesting to see if the GGEM/UK hold serve. NAM is still irrelevant right now and 18Z GFS tends to continue the same trend as the 12z run,so I'd toss that. So that leaves us with 12z GFS/12z Euro vs the 12z GGEM and 12z UK. If things stand that way by the end of the 0z runs,ride the EURO/GFS. at this point,I'd definitely still be saying snow likely for Dorchester, but instead of snow I'd call it snow showers or light snow. Sent from my VS980 4G Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Its the New England forum with less wiggle room on this event? I still think (maybe hope) a lot of us will be happy. 00z nam looks pretty wet to tell you the truth at 33 compared to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 00z nam looks pretty wet to tell you the truth at 33 compared to 18z There could still well be an ok front end dump despite a S trend. Nothing epic but a few inches for many in SNE. I'll take any accumulating snow over dry and cold. The glacier out here is looking a little worn and in need of a refresher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 NAM is a little interesting for Sunday PM, but unfortunately it's usually synoptically challenged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Said no one ever. The Nam....bawaaaaaaa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack66 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 00z NAM has the low off California going from 980 to 1005 mb in 24 hours. A couple posts had stated that with such a strong storm, warm cored, that it would take a while to wind down, is 24 hours too soon? As everyone says it is the NAM, but thoughts on the dramatic wind down in 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Is it that dramatic since it is going from over the ocean to over dry land? Not arguing I just figured that makes a difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 i like the nam. nice run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 That front leading wave idea has been on the meso models...but its hard to trust it yet until global models jump on board. That might be the easier way to get decent snows in this if the main shortwave keeps crapping out on us with each run. Either way, its an interesting convoluted setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.