78Blizzard Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 After that Euro run, for anyone so inclined, I hear they are taking reservations on the Tobin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 What do the amounts look like im not home About quarter inch of qpf along the pike. A tenth in S NH, to about 0.60" along the south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 lol, All the worrying, That's usually reserved for the NNE crew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 About quarter inch of qpf along the pike. A tenth in S NH, to about 0.60" along the south coast. 2-3" ORH max, then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 lol, All the worrying, That's usually reserved for the NNE crew No worrying here... just realizing I have freed up many hours of time that would be otherwise glued to the computer/phone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 What's with this reference to "sand"? Poor snow growth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 About quarter inch of qpf along the pike. A tenth in S NH, to about 0.60" along the south coast. LOL That's pitiful. At least we get to freeze our balls off before and after.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 What's with this reference to "sand"? Poor snow growth? Yup... little needles and tiny flakes ground to a pulverized flour... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The spread on the Euro Ens will obviously give a better idea how strong the trend is. I won't loose hope until at least tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 No worrying here... just realizing I have freed up many hours of time that would be otherwise glued to the computer/phone... You have adapted to the MPM approach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Guys, keep the banter in the banter thread...for those of you north of the pike who feel you are out of the game, you have no reason to post in here if you aren't adding anything other than saying you think you are out of the game...that is why we have banter threads. Many still want to talk about this system scientifically...esp those who have a higher chance of seeing significant snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Not horrible south of the pike. ~6". Not good trends though. Hopefully we can get a potent system to kick north some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I'm thinking there will still be some model wavering. This is such an West/East system by the time it gets here. A little shift north or south affects a bunch of New England for better or worse. That being said, a bulk of the moisture is still in the Pacific (looks awesome on the water vapor loop!), and it will be interesting where that feature ends up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 No one in sne is out of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Guys, keep the banter in the banter thread...for those of you north of the pike who feel you are out of the game, you have no reason to post in here if you aren't adding anything other than saying you think you are out of the game...that is why we have banter threads. Many still want to talk about this system scientifically...esp those who have a higher chance of seeing significant snow. Yes, so can you please answer my scientific question? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 FWIW, NCEP's thoughts... ...GUIDANCE EVALUATION AND SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...SOLUTIONS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF GRADUALLY CONVERGING FOR THE WAVE SFC/ALOFT THAT SHOULD GENERATE QUITE A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW...AND TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH A SIGNIFICANT TRANSITIONAL ZONE OF DANGEROUS SLEET/FREEZING RAIN...FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLC/SRN NEW ENGLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 We've seen these wavering models all winter. I have the feeling the models are tying to tell us something "between the lines". With the cold air locked, in, I see the early January storm scenario again, where there is going to be a very narrow gradient, from north to south, between very little snow and a 6-12" storm. Am I mistaken, or have the majority of storms ended up kicking north of their modeled out to sea tracks 72 hours out, than the other way around? It won't take more than 50-100 miles of movement and a little bit more organization than what the Euro is seeing for it to be close to a warning level storm for most of Southern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I mean we are starting to get a taste this last week of powder freaks winter. Threats getting surpressed. Whatcha goin do. I knew days ago we were done up here at the first hint of a south track, but didn't think it would threaten south of you guys. You would think at some point the seasonal transition would lift the battle ground further north (that's what I thought was happening in Feb when we got in on a couple events) but it just keeps hammering the boundary as far south as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 lol, All the worrying, That's usually reserved for the NNE crew Worrywart? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Still a tremendous amount of spread in the GEFS members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Shabbs likes 6-12 or 8-14 for CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Shabbs likes 6-12 or 8-14 for CT Start there and just bump up if necessary? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Euro ensembles are a bit northwest of the OP run...but not a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 No one in sne is out of the game. People should listen to this post and the 48hr time left here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 If you loop the following image found here ... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/flash-wv.html, you will see that this thing off the California coast is just stoked with torsional momentum, and it is going to be interesting to see if the models are correct in spinning it down so fast as it moves inland. Note what appears to be dry air seclusion; I checked the IR channel and that is definitely warm in that core. This/that type of phenomenon is more typical in only the more powerful mid latitude cyclones. "The warm seclusion or mature stage of the extratropical cyclone lifecycle often has structural characteristics reminiscent of major tropical cyclones including eye-like moats of calm air at the barotropic warm-core center surrounded by hurricane force winds along the bent-back warm front. Many extratropical cyclones experience periods of explosive intensification or deepening (bomb) as a result of nonlinear dynamical feedbacks associated with latent heat release. ..." Read more here: http://udini.proquest.com/view/warm-seclusion-extratropical-goid:876024275/ inland this is supposed to weaken considerably in the models, but this thing really has established some ear marks as being a special entity in the atmosphere, and it is going to be interesting to see what happens (if anything at all) to change the handling of this impulse once it gets over land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Euro ensembles are a bit northwest of the OP run...but not a huge difference. The NYC thread said they're way south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The NYC thread said they're way south.Of the 12z op...no. Of the 00z ens...yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Good point here Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 57m 2 big problems in storm snow amounts 1) liquid 2) ratios.Liable to be 2 10 -15 inch areas,1 in 10 to 1 ratio,other in bitter cold, 20 to 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 ...for those of you north of the pike who feel you are out of the game, you have no reason to post in here if you aren't adding anything other than saying you think you are out of the game...that is why we have banter threads. Many still want to talk about this system scientifically...esp those who have a higher chance of seeing significant snow. So we can only comment if we think this system is coming northOk. Navgem came north. That is optomistic for snow lovers Their are plenty who see this as more likely to trend south of pike (not bc they are non scientific but that is what most models have trended last 36 hours? these ppl who are def still following it, bc one never knows at 3.5 days out . I think to imply they shouldn't post bc its essentially non snowier talk ignores the model trends and opens door to more wish casting and non sensical weenie posts imo. I didnt see anyone imply that they are out of game, more like odds are decreasing N of pike ATM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 15z sref's far n and w .. Likely means NAM is NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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