Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,584
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

March 2nd/3rd Winter Storm Potential


joey2002

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Guys, keep the banter in the banter thread...for those of you north of the pike who feel you are out of the game, you have no reason to post in here if you aren't adding anything other than saying you think you are out of the game...that is why we have banter threads.

 

Many still want to talk about this system scientifically...esp those who have a higher chance of seeing significant snow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm thinking there will still be some model wavering. This is such an West/East system by the time it gets here. A little shift north or south affects a bunch of New England for better or worse.

 

That being said, a bulk of the moisture is still in the Pacific (looks awesome on the water vapor loop!), and it will be interesting where that feature ends up

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guys, keep the banter in the banter thread...for those of you north of the pike who feel you are out of the game, you have no reason to post in here if you aren't adding anything other than saying you think you are out of the game...that is why we have banter threads.

Many still want to talk about this system scientifically...esp those who have a higher chance of seeing significant snow.

Yes, so can you please answer my scientific question?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

FWIW, NCEP's thoughts...

 

...GUIDANCE EVALUATION AND SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

SOLUTIONS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF GRADUALLY CONVERGING FOR THE WAVE SFC/ALOFT THAT SHOULD GENERATE QUITE A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW...AND TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH A SIGNIFICANT TRANSITIONAL ZONE OF DANGEROUS SLEET/FREEZING RAIN...FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLC/SRN NEW ENGLAND.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We've seen these wavering models all winter.  I have the feeling the models are tying to tell us something "between the lines".  With the cold air locked, in, I see the early January storm scenario again, where there is going to be a very narrow gradient, from north to south, between very little snow and a 6-12" storm.  Am I mistaken, or have the majority of storms ended up kicking north of their modeled out to sea tracks 72 hours out, than the other way around?  It won't take more than 50-100 miles of movement and a little bit more organization than what the Euro is seeing for it to be close to a warning level storm for most of Southern New England.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I mean we are starting to get a taste this last week of powder freaks winter. Threats getting surpressed. Whatcha goin do.

I knew days ago we were done up here at the first hint of a south track, but didn't think it would threaten south of you guys. You would think at some point the seasonal transition would lift the battle ground further north (that's what I thought was happening in Feb when we got in on a couple events) but it just keeps hammering the boundary as far south as possible.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If you loop the following image found here ...  http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/flash-wv.html, you will see that this thing off the California coast is just stoked with torsional momentum, and it is going to be interesting to see if the models are correct in spinning it down so fast as it moves inland.  Note what appears to be dry air seclusion; I checked the IR channel and that is definitely warm in that core.  This/that type of phenomenon is more typical in only the more powerful mid latitude cyclones.  

 

"The warm seclusion or mature stage of the extratropical cyclone lifecycle often has structural characteristics reminiscent of major tropical cyclones including eye-like moats of calm air at the barotropic warm-core center surrounded by hurricane force winds along the bent-back warm front. Many extratropical cyclones experience periods of explosive intensification or deepening (bomb) as a result of nonlinear dynamical feedbacks associated with latent heat release. ..."  Read more here: http://udini.proquest.com/view/warm-seclusion-extratropical-goid:876024275/

 

wv-l.jpg

 

inland this is supposed to weaken considerably in the models, but this thing really has established some ear marks as being a special entity in the atmosphere, and it is going to be interesting to see what happens (if anything at all) to change the handling of this impulse once it gets over land

Link to comment
Share on other sites

...for those of you north of the pike who feel you are out of the game, you have no reason to post in here if you aren't adding anything other than saying you think you are out of the game...that is why we have banter threads.

Many still want to talk about this system scientifically...esp those who have a higher chance of seeing significant snow.

So we can only comment if we think this system is coming north

Ok. Navgem came north. That is optomistic for snow lovers

Their are plenty who see this as more likely to trend south of pike (not bc they are non scientific but that is what most models have trended last 36 hours? these ppl who are def still following it, bc one never knows at 3.5 days out . I think to imply they shouldn't post bc its essentially non snowier talk ignores the model trends and opens door to more wish casting and non sensical weenie posts imo.

I didnt see anyone imply that they are out of game, more like odds are decreasing N of pike ATM

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...