dryslot Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Had this discussion this am with some others, Until you get better clustering north or south on the ensembles your going to have these Op model swings, That why the ensembles should be keyed on until some of this gets sorted out, The pv is what will drive the bus one way or the other, Ultimately, Its comes down to its positioning and strength Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Maybe this run was a hiccup, but it also could be argued that 06z was a hiccup as well. If the euro is south I will be concerned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Had this discussion this am with some others, Until you get better clustering north or south on the ensembles your going to have these Op model swings, That why the ensembles should be keyed on until some of this gets sorted out, The pv is what will drive the bus one way or the other That is pretty much it...the OP models are fun to look at because they have the nice graphics and pretty QPF colors painted on them...but they are essentially just another ensemble member right now. Granted, the most skilled ensemble member, but in this type of spread that doesn't mean much...not as much as it would mean if we had a tighter cluster of solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Looking good for sw ct yet again. Supression or amping still gives it to us. Tpipping the scales from a great to a historic winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The modelology and overall discussion the past few days is a total bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 a 100 miles swing either way is not abnormal 48-72 hrs either way which is what the Euro and GFS have been doing since yesterday, the issue here is that b/c it's a n to s gradient, it takes alot of the region out of the big snows with the south shift.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 a 100 miles swing either way is not abnormal 48-72 hrs either way which is what the Euro and GFS have been doing since yesterday, the issue here is that b/c it's a n to s gradient, it takes alot of the region out of the big snows with the south shift.... Correct and this has been a pretty low confidence forecast from the get go. Look at all the pieces that need to come into place. Doesn't exactly scream high predictability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The modelology and overall discussion the past few days is a total bummer. I think the discussion of the players at stake and previous experience with these has been good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I think the discussion of the players at stake and previous experience with these has been good. You think maybe the international are the way to go since this one's a Southern streamer? Sent from my VS980 4G using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Maybe this run was a hiccup, but it also could be argued that 06z was a hiccup as well. If the euro is south I will be concerned IMO I don't think it'll be time to feel anything positive or negative about the system until 12z tomorrow. It hasn't exactly been a season of spectacular modeling performance and while that doesn't necessarily mean they'll perform poorly with this one, the overall delicacy of the situation in terms of PV strength, the nature of the southern stream system and the possibility of a tight gradient makes it seem as though this will be yet another storm where even the night before has a high degree of uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I think the discussion so far on this has been good as well, As good as can be expected with the amount of uncertainty that involved, There really has been no trend established yet, This really is not much different then most systems this year, For the most part, They all have resolved themselves late in the period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Wow at the 12z GFS. I expected weenie suicides in here after seeing that depiction. Pleasantly surprised not to see that. We'll see what the EURO throws out at 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 You think maybe the international are the way to go since this one's a Southern streamer? Sent from my VS980 4G No, I think it's too early to really say. We can discuss if there is an overall trend if every piece of guidance is south...but all the shifting around makes it a tough forecast. Even still, we may very well have shifts through tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The weenies on the bus go round and round round and round round and round, go ens until Sat. I am very very surprised to see some Mets making some bold tweets based on todays GFS run south. I think it had basically 8 runs in a row that were very similar but if that's how they forecast who am I to question, that's why they make the big bucks. Me? watching and waiting not speculating other to say I like this storm . Nice Bufkit outputs for some meager qpf again. Saturation to 200mb will do that, congrats SCT SE MA on the GFS, good lift down there. Save a horse ride the Euro naked and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 GGEM was well north of 00z....but considering 00z might have been worse than today's 12z GFS, that isn't saying a ton. But it looks like prob a 4-7" type deal for SNE...with highest south. It actually might have a period of ZR south of the pike initially on Sunday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Seems to be a very tough system for guidance to resolve. Kind of fascinating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 GGEM was well north of 00z....but considering 00z might have been worse than today's 12z GFS, that isn't saying a ton. But it looks like prob a 4-7" type deal for SNE...with highest south. It actually might have a period of ZR south of the pike initially on Sunday evening. How does N NJ/NYC look on the GEM? Thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 This does baffle me but he is the man. Harvey Leonard @HarveyWCVB 19m @Nick_SNEwx @stormchaserjs Not just 1 run of 1 model….consensus of all models has been shifting So. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I don't envy those who make their living doing this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 fYI GFS through day ten is pure porn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 watching and waiting not speculating other to say I like this storm . LOL. I'll forget you said 6-12" here a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The weenies on the bus go round and round round and round round and round, go ens until Sat. I am very very surprised to see some Mets making some bold tweets based on todays GFS run south. I think it had basically 8 runs in a row that were very similar but if that's how they forecast who am I to question, that's why they make the big bucks. Me? watching and waiting not speculating other to say I like this storm . Nice Bufkit outputs for some meager qpf again. Saturation to 200mb will do that, congrats SCT SE MA on the GFS, good lift down there. Save a horse ride the Euro naked and cold.Bufkit meager even for your area? Sent from my VS980 4G using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 This does baffle me but he is the man. Harvey Leonard @HarveyWCVB 19m @Nick_SNEwx @stormchaserjs Not just 1 run of 1 model….consensus of all models has been shifting So. The larger picture has definitely shifted south from, say, 36-48 hours ago. If you took a consensus on Wednesday and then another right now, it would definitely be south. But the spread definitely is still quite high for an event 3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yeah, when was the last time a multi-wave heavy overunning event got suppressed here? The February 94 classic events had the heaviest axis of snow further north than the GFS is showing. This looks like when the GFS was trying to lead a few weeks back and all the other guidance went the other way. Suppression is still the least likely outcome for most of us as far as I'm concerned. I'd rate the odds at mixing cutting down on snow totals a good bit higher than that, at least near the city. I think I-90 and north have more to worry about on that end. The UKMET actually went north from last night, so if the Euro does the same I think the GFS just had a fluke run. I thought these were two pretty good posts from the NYC forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 fYI GFS through day ten is pure porn march 10th is what I'm watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 GEFS were a little north of the op, but did shift south from 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 LOL. I'll forget you said 6-12" here a few days ago.unless you are doing your normal trolling or I forgot please link me to the post where I forecasted 6-12. Although today thats not far-reaching. See nothing wrong with discussion of liking a storm,model output.Nor nothing wrong with the opposite, I do want you to back your statement with a link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 GEFS were a little north of the op, but did shift south from 06z. Did you look at the individual members? Was there any spread to the north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I realize the solutions are still all over the place but what looks to be the end time on this? Does this clear western areas by Tuesday AM commute? Midday? or sooner? thanks for any input Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 fYI GFS through day ten fifteen is pure porn FYP. Deep winter there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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