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March 2nd/3rd Winter Storm Potential


joey2002

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As Tip stated, but Scott is skeptical of, BOX is hoping for better data to be sampled...

 

BUT AGAIN...EXERCISING CAUTION. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER

THAT UNTIL ENERGY BECOMES BETTER SAMPLED NO ONE PARTICULAR SOLUTION

IS FAVORED. HIGHLY ENCOURAGE THE RECOMMENDATIONS COMMUNICATED BY WPC

IN GIVING PREFERENCE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS AND EVALUATING CIPS ANALOGS

DERIVED FROM GFS OUTPUT WHICH CONTINUE TO GIVE THE GREATEST WEIGHT

OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWS SOUTH OF THE MA/VT-NH BORDER WITH

THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF MEETING WARNING-LEVEL SNOWS SOUTH OF THE

MASS-PIKE.

 

 

Interestingly my click forecast yesterday had 70% pops for monday but today it only shows 50% pops.

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As Tip stated, but Scott is skeptical of, BOX is hoping for better data to be sampled...

 

BUT AGAIN...EXERCISING CAUTION. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER

THAT UNTIL ENERGY BECOMES BETTER SAMPLED NO ONE PARTICULAR SOLUTION

IS FAVORED. HIGHLY ENCOURAGE THE RECOMMENDATIONS COMMUNICATED BY WPC

IN GIVING PREFERENCE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS AND EVALUATING CIPS ANALOGS

DERIVED FROM GFS OUTPUT WHICH CONTINUE TO GIVE THE GREATEST WEIGHT

OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWS SOUTH OF THE MA/VT-NH BORDER WITH

THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF MEETING WARNING-LEVEL SNOWS SOUTH OF THE

MASS-PIKE.

 

I wonder if they've noted my pet-rants about the failure to reference they have a CWA border with VT.  It's nice to see me included.

 

Let's get this north a little more.

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Watch the PV orientation to our north...the suppressed solutions sort of were rotating a stronger lobe down around the same time the southern shortwave was trying to amplify...last night's runs backed off that idea bit which is one reason we saw it come north....another reason is that the shortwave itself trended stronger.

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6Z GFS bufkit is impressive with ORH at 13.2 inches and Boston at 10.4. MHT has 5.9, SGZ is great . and to talk Ray and Jay off the ledge BED is 9.1

I was never on any ledges...first of all, I'm fine with whatever happens.

Secondly, I think s of the pike jacks...never bought the whiff BS.

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I was never on any ledges...first of all, I'm fine with whatever happens.

Secondly, I think s of the pike jacks...never bought the whiff BS.

interesting setup as the areas with less precip have higher ratios and more snow, fluff bomb in the deep cold so ORH maximizes SG .on the 6 Z GFS North of the Pike does best for snow groth

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interesting setup as the areas with less precip have higher ratios and more snow, fluff bomb in the deep cold so ORH maximizes SG .on the 6 Z GFS North of the Pike does best for snow groth

Its interesting how much this season's pace has parallelled 2009 imby.. cold and all.

If you remember, March 1 saw that final event of the season that was another instance of OCMs trying forecast well in excess of a foot, in the face of mid level centers flying to the west.

I got about 9-10" in that event, bringing me near what would end up as my sesaonal total of 82.5".

 

I'm at 72.5" right now.

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This one screams oes.

 

It might depend on the exact track, but that's some cold air coming down. That seems like it would peg further south towards pym county. The GFS actually has an awesome ribbon of VVs from near where you are down to the south coast at 700mb despite QPF being a little less to the north.

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