Randy4Confluence Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The gradient north of the mass pike makes me sad... Yeah the PV may dry up the NW quadrant as what happened in that January storm. Sent from my VS980 4G using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 If it hadn't been for feb this year this winter would have been meh.....Here in west Hartford anyway.....and honestly last year if it hadn't been for the blizzard in feb las winter Would have been meh too....feb saves the daysame here, in fact last year we were just at normal....thanks to feb...missing out on the early nov event, march firehose, and a few others... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Euro came back north...not like 00z last night, but not the suppressed solution from 12z. Probably has warning snows for pike region southward...jackpot on the south coast and Cape...perhaps advisory snows up to S NH. We'll see how things trend at 12z tomorrow. But there's still some pretty big swings with how the 500mb energy is being handle to our north. Off to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Lol yeah that's pretty awesome. I agree it started off where the two bigger events were south of Boston centric. Since then, not really. It's a perception thing. People don't remember when south and east areas are slop or rain, they only remember when they are the only place getting snow. Anyways I digress, I do think the fear now over everything is suppression. I'm curious too see if the euro holds steady or comes north after a pretty large swing at 12z. Hopefully we have the southern goal post set up i disagree as i remember everything and the area from south central ct to inland ri to s-se mass but somewhat excluding the cape has had a run for the ages over the past ten to fifteen years, esp the past five. also the nyc metro area. no offense taunton has really cleaned up in many events over the past few years both big and small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I did write a blog post about Monday - http://ryanhanrahan.com/2014/02/27/significant-snow-for-monday-possible-but-not-a-lock/ Nice write up.....like the discussion.....I spent all day in the air today and landed at SFO a couple hours ago.....made it before the storm comes ashore....here's what's about to destroy the west facing coastal range south of San Francisco.....if it has to go through a meat grinder I'm happy I got here before it does.....This is how CA does storms....tons of rain....mudslides....flooding.....wind.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Nice write up.....like the discussion.....I spent all day in the air today and landed at SFO a couple hours ago.....made it before the storm comes ashore....here's what's about to destroy the west facing coastal range south of San Francisco.....if it has to go through a meat grinder I'm happy I got here before it does.....This is how CA does storms....tons of rain....mudslides....flooding.....wind.... Better charge the phone soon... 14 % battery.... Are you a Star Trek fan.. Left symbol on bottom reminds me of those things they communicated into on their shirts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 February made up for some of those storms earlier that were suppressed in January. ORH has had over 41 inches of snow this month, so it can't be that bad. Only the 4th snowiest February on record. Damn, 4th snowiest. We are coming in again at or below normal in snowfall on the mountain for February up here. November still the only month above normal, haha. Looking at the 00z GFS, wow at NJ. Congrats to those guys on like their 5-6th warning event haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 06z GFS Lola like a good hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I like the overnight trends so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 That was only the beginning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 06z GFS Lola like a good hit. Yeah that's much better for SNE. It's important to get into that 0.25-0.5" QPF bracket for at least one 6-hour period if you want to see it snow steadily...the 30-hours of .1" every 6-hours is fun, but can be like watching paint dry to get to 5-6" total. The 6z GFS has a much better, concentrated burst of WAA and frontogenic forcing, rather than a strung out shredded appeal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Well it is certainly above normal here but it's not even close to a top ten winter and we are behind last years totals (granted still a ways to go however) and the surrounding area has cleaned up quite a bit in comparison, We're ahead of last year. To date BOS has 56.4. Last year at the same point was 42.8. If we get a decent hit Monday top 10 status is well within reach and arguably probable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 OT but the 06z gfs is incredible start to finish, comical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 OT but the 06z gfs is incredible start to finish, comical. Bomb after bomb..lol. GEFS are juicy for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Any love N of the Pike? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Any love N of the Pike? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Ride the Rev folks. I'll take you places Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Bomb after bomb..lol. Maybe it'll snow up here too! Haha. Long range storms are the only ones we seem to get. Just a fascinatingly persistent pattern. I can't believe spots like ALB and ORH are top 5 snowiest February and we struggled to just get in the vicinity of normal. But Feb was a 200% increase over the Dec/Jan abortions. For the upcoming storm, ride the GFS/ECM. They are pretty similar for the most part. GGEM was strung out suppressed but only has the NAM on its side, so I think we know which way to lean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Ride the Rev folks. I'll take you places No one's taking the bait on that one...... The 06z run is a nice improvement for SNE to be sure. Let's keep the trend going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 nobody is in the long range thread. how does march 7-14 look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 This will bring snow as far north as the GYX forecasting area and mixing to the Ct shore at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Well those overnight runs did not suck. Don't care what the GGEM showed. Euro was like 12"+ S of a C CT line over into SE MA. 6" up into S NH and a few inches up to the Canadian border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Well those overnight runs did not suck. Don't care what the GGEM showed. Euro was like 12"+ S of a C CT line over into SE MA. 6" up into S NH and a few inches up to the Canadian border. 00z GFS and 06 GFS looked pretty similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 This will bring snow as far north as the GYX forecasting area and mixing to the Ct shore at least Agree for the most part, but this one's cold, not sure I see any mixing unless you're talking about the beginning of the storm. Anyway, looks like a good/great event for CT/MA/RI as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 00z GFS and 06 GFS looked pretty similar. 6z was more expansive. Hopefully a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 6z was more expansive. Hopefully a trend. Yeah, but the general idea was about the same to me. Today should really start the narrowing of track, if it already hasn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 As Tip stated, but Scott is skeptical of, BOX is hoping for better data to be sampled... BUT AGAIN...EXERCISING CAUTION. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTERTHAT UNTIL ENERGY BECOMES BETTER SAMPLED NO ONE PARTICULAR SOLUTIONIS FAVORED. HIGHLY ENCOURAGE THE RECOMMENDATIONS COMMUNICATED BY WPCIN GIVING PREFERENCE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS AND EVALUATING CIPS ANALOGSDERIVED FROM GFS OUTPUT WHICH CONTINUE TO GIVE THE GREATEST WEIGHTOF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWS SOUTH OF THE MA/VT-NH BORDER WITHTHE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF MEETING WARNING-LEVEL SNOWS SOUTH OF THEMASS-PIKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Euro and 6z gfs look really good. That's a solid warning event south of the pike, with some 12"+ amounts if that depiction verified. Still early, but starting to gain confidence on a plowable event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 As Tip stated, but Scott is skeptical of, BOX is hoping for better data to be sampled... BUT AGAIN...EXERCISING CAUTION. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT UNTIL ENERGY BECOMES BETTER SAMPLED NO ONE PARTICULAR SOLUTION IS FAVORED. HIGHLY ENCOURAGE THE RECOMMENDATIONS COMMUNICATED BY WPC IN GIVING PREFERENCE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS AND EVALUATING CIPS ANALOGS DERIVED FROM GFS OUTPUT WHICH CONTINUE TO GIVE THE GREATEST WEIGHT OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWS SOUTH OF THE MA/VT-NH BORDER WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF MEETING WARNING-LEVEL SNOWS SOUTH OF THE MASS-PIKE. Well to be clear, I did say it does matter...my argument is that this is not 2002 anymore and remote sensing (especially where the s/w is) is darn good. Any wobble north or south is likely a function of inherent wobbles in the PV and heat and moisture fluxes from rain and convection down south. FWIW, GEFS have 0.75" to the NH border now. Almost an inch everywhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Well to be clear, I did say it does matter...my argument is that this is not 2002 anymore and remote sensing (especially where the s/w is) is darn good. Any wobble north or south is likely a function of inherent wobbles in the PV and heat and moisture fluxes from rain and convection down south. FWIW, GEFS have 0.75" to the NH border now. Almost an inch everywhere else. Yeah, we aren't going to see storms magically appear/disappear. Wobble N/S/E/W, yes. This may be one of the bigger storms of the season if it breaks right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.