HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 LOL at the manic nature of this thread. The PV is strong but it's a March storm and I keep thinking back to Will's comments yesterday about it being later in the season and convection being stronger down South and not handled well by models. With the players just entering the field this could very well swing the other direction tomorrow. Either way this could very well end up another situation where things still aren't completely clear saturday morning. I feel like much of SNE is getting plowable snow monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 LOL at the manic nature of this thread. The PV is strong but it's a March storm and I keep thinking back to Will's comments yesterday about it being later in the season and convection being stronger down South and not handled well by models. With the players just entering the field this could very well swing the other direction tomorrow. Either way this could very well end up another situation where things still aren't completely clear saturday morning. I feel like much of SNE is getting plowable snow monday. We've been preaching that for a couple of days. However, you have to respect that vortex too...that doesn't care what month it is. Maybe we will go down in flames, but I'm not completely on board with a suppressed euro op based on those reasons...but I would be a horrible meteorologist if I just ignored that big polar pig to our NW. My feeling is that the next 48 hrs tickle north. I think Will and perhaps Ryan agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Now that's a new weenieism! actually Chris Ocean State Weather talked about it yesterday, you might have missed that class in school, beer does that. You want weenie, feast your eyes on this big boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It's fukked up. You give an objective analysis and you're accused of being a snow watcher vs snow lover. Sometimes the bb just isn't worth precious time. lOl It was directed at Ray bro, he said he was done with snow, geezus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It's fukked up. You give an objective analysis and you're accused of being a snow watcher vs snow lover. Sometimes the bb just isn't worth precious time.You don't truly love snow unless you discuss the snowiest outcome possible. Mother Nature is always watching too...she'll penalize you for those negative thoughts.It's all just a joke though...we bust balls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 We've been preaching that for a couple of days. However, you have to respect that vortex too...that doesn't care what month it is. Maybe we will go down in flames, but I'm not completely on board with a suppressed euro op based on those reasons...but I would be a horrible meteorologist if I just ignored that big polar pig to our NW. My feeling is that the next 48 hrs tickle north. I think Will and perhaps Ryan agree. This met sure agrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Sig worthy. Salt Nuclei is the phrase of the week. yea well sometimes talking about Meteorology when you are not a degreed one is taboo I know, lol but if you grew up reading Mr Drags AFDs they stick in your head. Nobody jumped on Chris when he brought it up yesterday though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 You don't truly love snow unless you discuss the snowiest outcome possible. Mother Nature is always watching too...she'll penalize you for those negative thoughts. It's all just a joke though...we bust balls. -32 baby enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 We've been preaching that for a couple of days. However, you have to respect that vortex too...that doesn't care what month it is. Maybe we will go down in flames, but I'm not completely on board with a suppressed euro op based on those reasons...but I would be a horrible meteorologist if I just ignored that big polar pig to our NW. My feeling is that the next 48 hrs tickle north. I think Will and perhaps Ryan agree. Agreed - I think it's definitely possible but this synoptic setup is pretty messy. Monster meat grinder to the north and a huge closed low in the Pacific waiting to come ashore. actually Chris Ocean State Weather talked about yesterday, you might have missed that class in school, beer does that. You want weenie, feast your eyes on this big boy No, I didn't miss that class actually. Sea salt particles have nothing to do with getting "good ratios" and to be honest mean nothing in a case like this when you have a saturated column from 200 hpa to the ground. The sea salt nuclei allows ice crystals to form at relatively high temperatures. In many parts of the country having lift and saturation with a cloud no colder than -4C will give you freezing drizzle. Along the coast we have a bit more wiggle room and we can get heterogeneous nucleation at somewhat warmer temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I did write a blog post about Monday - http://ryanhanrahan.com/2014/02/27/significant-snow-for-monday-possible-but-not-a-lock/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Who devised that map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Hmm...looks like we close the books on this one north of the pike...or not. Has the Pacific energy been perfectly sampled? The arctic energy, yet? And does everyone do an about face if the models tick north tomorrow? This has been the story of almost the entire winter...nail biting almost to the end! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 You don't truly love snow unless you discuss the snowiest outcome possible. Mother Nature is always watching too...she'll penalize you for those negative thoughts. It's all just a joke though...we bust balls. Law of attraction, Rev. Kev. preaches and practices it from atop Mt Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 This met sure agrees That's a confidence booster. I bet James does too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 actually Chris Ocean State Weather talked about yesterday, you might have missed that class in school, beer does that. You want weenie, feast your eyes on this big boy The gradient north of the mass pike makes me sad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I did write a blog post about Monday - http://ryanhanrahan.com/2014/02/27/significant-snow-for-monday-possible-but-not-a-lock/ Wow, nice write up Ryan. You addressed all the moving parts in a really concise and easy to understand explanation. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The whole energy sampled argument is overrated to a point. We have great remote sensing and reports from aircraft to substitute for adequate data. I think the sampling issue is real to a point because nothing substitutes for good, hard data....but it's not going to miraculously cause a snowstorm. We've heard that argument before and the results we are hoping for didn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The gfs (18Z/27) does dump a lot of snow on most of sne but the concern is where it is trending. There is credence to what Kevin is saying but it's not near a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Who devised that map? Bufkit shows the same Jerry, cold airmass 140303/1200Z 90 35010KT 15.0F SNOW 16:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.084 16:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10 100| 0| 0 140303/1500Z 93 36010KT 16.6F SNOW 11:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.074 14:1| 2.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.17 100| 0| 0 140303/1800Z 96 01011KT 18.4F SNOW 11:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.082 13:1| 3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.25 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 140303/2100Z 99 02012KT 18.9F SNOW 12:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.091 12:1| 4.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.34 100| 0| 0 140304/0000Z 102 02011KT 18.8F SNOW 11:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.099 12:1| 5.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.44 100| 0| 0 140304/0300Z 105 02012KT 18.4F SNOW 13:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.098 12:1| 6.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.54 100| 0| 0 140304/0600Z 108 01013KT 17.3F SNOW 14:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.038 12:1| 7.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.58 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 140304/0900Z 111 01014KT 15.5F SNOW 19:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 13:1| 7.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.60 100| 0| 0 Jerry gives you 7.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 That's a confidence booster. I bet James does too. If 00z and 12z tomorrow hold in the same general area or tick north a shade, then we've definitely seen our southern goalposts with this one. The biggest question mark in my mind is north of the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Obviously different set up and what not, but this could have a very sharp cut off. Similar to what we saw in The two January events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Ryan, good write up. To others, look at all the crap we have to evaluate and monitor lol. Lots of moving parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Ryan, good write up. To others, look at all the crap we have to evaluate and monitor lol. Lots of moving parts. Thanks Scooter. There's really not much else to say now other than some snow is a good bet and a warning event is possible but at this point less than a 50/50 proposition. Lots to figure out with this one... but I do think there's an "upper bound" for this storm. Probably 10" or 12" in most areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 This met sure agrees Why do you insist on calling yourself a meteorologist? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 That cold means business. It can be an enemy. Exactly what I'm afraid of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Why do you insist on calling yourself a meteorologist? Didn't that meteorologist say we were starting with 6-10 and could adjust up from there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Thanks Scooter. There's really not much else to say now other than some snow is a good bet and a warning event is possible but at this point less than a 50/50 proposition. Lots to figure out with this one... but I do think there's an "upper bound" for this storm. Probably 10" or 12" in most areas. Really not much more you can say at this point. Hopefully the 00z runs stabilize a bit. One other idea I sort of entertained is if we get more of a front end thump later Sunday Night and Monday and then a second wave is the one that effects NJ on south. The 18z GEFS almost hunt at this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Really not much more you can say at this point. Hopefully the 00z runs stabilize a bit. One other idea I sort of entertained is if we get more of a front end thump later Sunday Night and Monday and then a second wave is the one that effects NJ on south. The 18z GEFS almost hunt at this. Yeah I could see that there seems to be some uncertainty as to which wave delivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yeah I could see that there seems to be some uncertainty as to which wave delivers. Yeah just another idea I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 That cold means business. It can be an enemy. Ha, Its a well known fact here, Its a lot more comforting when your living further south away from the source Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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