TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Gfs is a nice hit for people south of the pike. The trends have been worse today, there's no denying that. Still 4 days away so a long time to get better or worse. My precip type fears have essentially done a 180. That vortex is strong and I think we do run the risk of a fringe crap job more than precip issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Isn't that what we are talking about all day today? That's sort of what we've been discussing the past 3 days, how far north the best snow gets, lol. Well there's some here who think New England is going to get whiffed..and there's others who think they are only getting an inch or 2. When you've been watching the wx as long as we have..you know how these systems always turn out. You get hand wringing and worry over suppression and the bigger worry ends up how far north the pelting gets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 This storm can f off if it comes through like currently modeled. LOL We've had a fine winter....who cares at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 This storm can f off if it comes through like currently modeled. Ha... weren't you feeling really good about your location like 2 hours ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Well there's some here who think New England is going to get whiffed..and there's others who think they are only getting an inch or 2. When you've been watching the wx as long as we have..you know how these systems always turn out. You get hand wringing and worry over suppression and the bigger worry ends up how far north the pelting gets Right now the trend is suppression. You'll probably do well though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Right now the trend is suppression. You'll probably do well though. Maybe in the model world that's the trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Maybe in the model world that's the trend Holy crap this is an unbelievable post...dumbfounded... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Ha... weren't you feeling really good about your location like 2 hours ago? 'If storm is CURRENTLY as modeled" LOL We've had a fine winter....who cares at this stage. I like snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Right now the trend is suppression. You'll probably do well though. I am not seeing this big shift south today on the final out come of GFS precip maps, seems pretty steady state.More than 6 z actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Until the governing dynamics, now situated still between California and Hawaii ... gets solidly sampled by the physical aspect of the detection grid, this thing may as well be an unmanned fire hose in the models. I'd say there is a 50/50 chance that 1.5 days from now we have something much more important on the docket, vs nothing at all. That's pretty much where we stand on this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Holy crap this is an unbelievable post...dumbfounded... You've been around long enough to know how it's going to play out. if you bite on what the models are showing then shame on you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 This storm can f off if it comes through like currently modeled. Same feeling here. Immediate coast has not had as epic a winter as even a few miles to our west and south has. Go big or go torch from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 if anything ratios get better with colder profile. I'd hit it hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PineHillsWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Until the governing dynamics, now situated still between California and Hawaii ... gets solidly sampled by the physical aspect of the detection grid, this thing may as well be an unmanned fire hose in the models. I'd say there is a 50/50 chance that 1.5 days from now we have something much more important on the docket, vs nothing at all. That's pretty much where we stand on this event. Love the unmanned fire hose analogy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Until the governing dynamics, now situated still between California and Hawaii ... gets solidly sampled by the physical aspect of the detection grid, this thing may as well be an unmanned fire hose in the models. I'd say there is a 50/50 chance that 1.5 days from now we have something much more important on the docket, vs nothing at all. That's pretty much where we stand on this event. Tip, not being a prick but you say this every storm, do you have any links that say modeling improves to a meaningful degree once the storms are on land? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 This threat has been tracked since like 180 hours...can you imagine people going crazy over a 96 hour solution on an overrunning event in 2008? The new age of impatience is upon us. Give it another day at the minimum before trying to narrow your goalposts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 You've been around long enough to know how it's going to play out. if you bite on what the models are showing then shame on you That cold means business. It can be an enemy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 18z GEFS are actually decent. It almost looks like the initial thump wants to be further north before getting pushed SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 That cold means business. It can be an enemy. The supplemental products under GFS run on weather.cod.edu are an awesome tool for running model comparisons, 18Z is actually further North than this mornings runs, the 250 jet streak in NNE is increased and lifted more North, 5 h pV is more north and west, its very close to being much bigger, but peeps discounting .6 qpf in this airmass with some really incredible soundings are crazy. snow lovers being done with snow in FEB?? Snow watchers would be a better term I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I mean cmon, saturated to 200mb with Atlantic salt nucelei inflow, man talk about QPF queens.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Ginxy, you need the lift too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Ginxy, you need the lift too. i looked at 7H Vv's not bad, I mean .78 qpf in this air mass ain't bad Scott. Isentrophic lift with some PVA overhead, not a slammer 3 per hour but like I said I'd hit it. could it be better, hell yea but it just might be, WAA is often underdone in this situation. As will said down to 96 so lots to look at, will say firmly Sat afternoon whether to bite or bail. I know I love snowy days, snowy ground and am definitely not done with winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 This threat has been tracked since like 180 hours...can you imagine people going crazy over a 96 hour solution on an overrunning event in 2008? The new age of impatience is upon us. Give it another day at the minimum before trying to narrow your goalposts. Haha, yeah its why I was talking about wishing the models only ran to 5 days at most, haha. You sit and see these storms for like days on end only to find out its still a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I mean cmon, saturated to 200mb with Atlantic salt nucelei inflow, man talk about QPF queens.. Now that's a new weenieism! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The supplemental products under GFS run on weather.cod.edu are an awesome tool for running model comparisons, 18Z is actually further North than this mornings runs, the 250 jet streak in NNE is increased and lifted more North, 5 h pV is more north and west, its very close to being much bigger, but peeps discounting .6 qpf in this airmass with some really incredible soundings are crazy. snow lovers being done with snow in FEB?? Snow watchers would be a better term I guess. What does this have to do with the storm occurring? I haven't heard anyone say they wish they don't get snow, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 HPC 5 day issued an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Now that's a new weenieism! Sig worthy. Salt Nuclei is the phrase of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It's fukked up. You give an objective analysis and you're accused of being a snow watcher vs snow lover. Sometimes the bb just isn't worth precious time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It's fukked up. You give an objective analysis and you're accused of being a snow watcher vs snow lover. Sometimes the bb just isn't worth precious time.Just gotta ignore it I guess in the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It's fukked up. You give an objective analysis and you're accused of being a snow watcher vs snow lover. Sometimes the bb just isn't worth precious time. Go snow or go home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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