TalcottWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Of course all of us didn't want to see 12z go south. However, I think it is an outlier. Gem/uk/euro are all solid hits, gfs seems to be southern outlier until 12z euro comes out. If euro goes south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 On 2/28/2014 at 5:12 PM, H2Otown_WX said: Did you look at the individual members? Was there any spread to the north? They aren't out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 LOl on the GFS lR fantasy land huge NAO block, energizer bunny winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Still some spread, but it's not ridiculous. Some are north, some look a little like the GEM, and some almost want a little follow up wave action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 On 2/28/2014 at 5:21 PM, sbos_wx said: Of course all of us didn't want to see 12z go south. However, I think it is an outlier. Gem/uk/euro are all solid hits, gfs seems to be southern outlier until 12z euro comes out. If euro goes south... Seems they are behaving towards their normal biases. Besides my weenie sentiments, I do think the international models are the way to go with Southern stream systems like these. Euro at 1PM will follow the GGEM/UK IMO. Sent from my VS980 4G using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 On 2/28/2014 at 5:34 PM, Randy4Confluence said: Seems they are behaving towards their normal biases. Besides my weenie sentiments, I do think the international models are the way to go with Southern stream systems like these. Euro at 1PM will follow the GGEM/UK IMO. Sent from my VS980 4G It's a volatile pattern. I'd advise against feeling great towards any forecast snowfall for YBY until the snow os actually on the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Trending toward advisory for southern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 On 2/28/2014 at 4:42 PM, Ginxy said: fYI GFS through day ten is pure porn How can one believe a run that takes NYC down to 1F on day 4? Not only is that 10F colder than they've seen in March since 1967, it's 2F colder than their record for the month. At least it's less worse than yesterday when gfs had NYC getting below zero next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 On 2/28/2014 at 5:39 PM, cpick79 said: Trending toward advisory for southern areas.Lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 On 2/28/2014 at 5:32 PM, CoastalWx said: Still some spread, but it's not ridiculous. Some are north, some look a little like the GEM, and some almost want a little follow up wave action. Thanks Scott. Hopefully The King looks like the 06z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 On 2/28/2014 at 5:37 PM, sbos_wx said: It's a volatile pattern. I'd advise against feeling great towards any forecast snowfall for YBY until the snow os actually on the radar. Believe me, I know we're in trouble up here...could see it a week ago with the strong PV directly north of me. Had a similar scenario in Jan. where every model was showing us getting in on the NW quadrant of one of those cold storms,only to see it all shrivel up @game time. You should do well. Sent from my VS980 4G using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 On 2/28/2014 at 4:35 PM, weathafella said: Seems to be a very tough system for guidance to resolve. Kind of fascinating. Are you surprised? I've said it before,but I can't recall a more trying season amongst contemporary modeling schemes. Utter chaos, but I guess that is pretty indicative of sesaon characterized by progressive regimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 On 2/28/2014 at 5:21 PM, sbos_wx said: Of course all of us didn't want to see 12z go south. However, I think it is an outlier. Gem/uk/euro are all solid hits, gfs seems to be southern outlier until 12z euro comes out. If euro goes south... On 2/28/2014 at 5:21 PM, sbos_wx said: Of course all of us didn't want to see 12z go south. However, I think it is an outlier. Gem/uk/euro are all solid hits, gfs seems to be southern outlier until 12z euro comes out. If euro goes south... Wouldn't surprise me. I'd just hold tight for abother 48 hrs, regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 On 2/28/2014 at 5:39 PM, cpick79 said: Trending toward advisory for southern areas. Coating to and inch, give or take an 1/8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Looks like euro may go south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 On 2/28/2014 at 6:03 PM, CoastalWx said: Looks like euro may go south. LOL Figures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 On 2/28/2014 at 5:41 PM, sbos_wx said: Lol..? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Euro is definitely going to be flatter this run. GFS/Euro south...GGEM/Ukmet north for the 12z trends. Probably not the combo we wanted, but there's still so much complexity to this setup that its probably going to be at least until early tomorrow to really get confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 You know..a piece of the nrn stream tries to get infused last minute to boost this a bit. It's not a big difference at 500 from 00z. Just a little tick here and tick there with features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Hours and hours of 15F sand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 On 2/28/2014 at 6:10 PM, CoastalWx said: You know..a piece of the nrn stream tries to get infused last minute to boost this a bit. It's not a big difference at 500 from 00z. Just a little tick here and tick there with features. Unfortunately, most of the tics have been "there" of late, rather than "here". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 On 2/28/2014 at 6:08 PM, cpick79 said: ?That would be disastah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 On 2/28/2014 at 6:13 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Unfortunately, most of the tics have been "there" of late, rather than "here". Eh, it is what it is. Just nothing what it showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 On 2/28/2014 at 6:12 PM, ORH_wxman said: Hours and hours of 15F sand.What do the amounts look like im not home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 On 2/28/2014 at 6:15 PM, CoastalWx said: Eh, it is what it is. Just nothing what it showed. Oh, I know. Like I said, I think we could see these oscillations for another 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Does euro show a more consolidated system or more of a two piece? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 On 2/28/2014 at 6:13 PM, sbos_wx said: That would be disastah I mean we are starting to get a taste this last week of powder freaks winter. Threats getting surpressed. Whatcha goin do. Hopefully NAO /MJO phase 8 stay consistent in modeling over weekend. That will set us up for a nice shot in a week and iit will send natural gas prices to the moon again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Someone mentioned Harvey Leonard's take on this storm, but I can't find it. Anyone want to say what it is? He's generally pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 On 2/28/2014 at 6:20 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Oh, I know. Like I said, I think we could see these oscillations for another 48 hrs. Nah. Clean out your lockers, boys. Season's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 On 2/28/2014 at 6:22 PM, jgordonjr said: Someone mentioned Harvey Leonard's take on this storm, but I can't find it. Anyone want to say what it is? He's generally pretty good. Basically the trend has been south since Wednesday or so. But like Ray said...I'm hesitant to say this is set in stone by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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