Allsnow Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Looks like the euro ens are a bit north of op..surface and 850's get to ttn. This will change a million times. But signal is there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Hr 144 mod snow for area...looks a bit warmer for the mid Atlantic on ens..other then that looks snowy for our area That's heavy snow. Rarely are you going to get an ensemble mean to show 0.25"+ in one panel on a storm six days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 That's heavy snow. Rarely are you going to get an ensemble mean to show 0.25"+ in one panel on a storm six days away.I'm just looking for track, could care less about rate of preciep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Smooth out mean has about .75 all snow for NYC...the op is a bit stronger then the ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 That's heavy snow. Rarely are you going to get an ensemble mean to show 0.25"+ in one panel on a storm six days away. pretty pointless to debate snow intensity 5 days out on an ens. only thing to take away from this afternoons runs is there is a good signal for a storm and precip types as always will be determined in the SR once we get some sampling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 If anything this is similar to Feb 8,1994 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Odds are this trends north late. SWFE type events almost always do so at the end. So I think you would want some wiggle room between the 850 zero line and you to be safely snow, and also have the 850 low track southeast of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Odds are this trends north late. SWFE type events almost always do so at the end. So I think you would want some wiggle room between the 850 zero line and you to be safely snow, and also have the 850 low track southeast of you. Very much agree with this - you never want to be on the borderline of an event like this regarding precip types -- euro and CMC looked good but 5 days out we know they'll change run to run - either way it should be a major storm, just a question of whether its wet or white... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 pretty pointless to debate snow intensity 5 days out on an ens. only thing to take away from this afternoons runs is there is a good signal for a storm and precip types as always will be determined in the SR once we get some sampling... Agree! Very good post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 16 of the 50 individual Euro ensemble members give KLGA at least 10" of snow for the March 2-4 threat. 25 members have at least 6" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 16 of the 50 individual Euro ensemble members give KLGA at least 10" of snow for the March 2-4 threat. 25 members have at least 6" of snow. 33% chance of 10"+ and 50% chance of 6"+ isn't horrible for 5 days out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 A few individual members have 24"+, especially for the Morristown area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Yanks, hows Philly look in the individuals? I don't have the pay EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Ensemble mean at KLGA is 14". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Yanks, hows Philly look in the individuals? I don't have the pay EURO 12 members with at least 10" of snow for the first storm. 21 members with at least 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Upton starting to go bullish 'AT THIS TIME...BELIEVE THAT THE FRONT REMAINS JUST TO THE SOUTH LATE THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THENORTH. LEANING TOWARD COLDER SOLUTIONS...THUS MORE SNOW WITH THISOVERRUNNING EVENT. STAY TUNED.' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Any update on the 18z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Any update on the 18z GFS? Not at the time of this potential storm yet. Out to 102, will be another 10 minutes or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Not at the time of this potential storm yet. Out to 102, will be another 10 minutes or so. either going to Bermuda or wrapped up and going over the GL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 It's warmer and further North than 12z at the onset around 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 18z GFS is rain for the WAA. Just noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNAO Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Rain rain rain this run. It's just the GFS but who knows. Isn't this a northern stream? something the euro isnt good at and gfs is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I would say it's quite a bit warmer from 120-129 so far at both the surface and 850. Freezing line is N of NJ so far where it was in Central NJ at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 To many people doing analysis. Let Yanks do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 GFS starting to cool, main event looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 There's nothing to analyze. It's still raining for everyone South of the HV out to 141. The GFS is free and it's not hard to see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Am i the only one that remembers how the GFS literally crapped the bed with the last big snowstorm? Why are we even looking at it till we are 24 hrs out from the event? The GFS is literally a garbage in garbage out model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNAO Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 GFS starting to cool, main event looks better. What are you even seeing dude, I am looking at the same GFS run, its not better. Its rain bro. No need to sugar coat it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Am i the only one that remembers how the GFS literally crapped the bed with the last big snowstorm? Why are we even looking at it till we are 24 hrs out from the event? The GFS is literally a garbage in garbage out model While true, it did beat the Euro on the non event tomorrow that the Euro loved AND that was a totally different type of set up than this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.