REDMK6GLI Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 PD II esque.... Ahh even with this setup your comparing it to #3 on the NESIS chart, a VERY tall order for this storm to achieve PDII would have to produce 6-12"+ in the DC area. Its #3 for a reason, does it look like it? Yea but will it verify just as good as that its going to be a tall order even as we stand here right now looking at the models today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Still want to take a step back but to have most globals showing this scenario is pretty astounding so agreement thus far is as good as you'd want I agree, Red. Normally I would be woofing it up right now, Like I said in an earlier post, The EURO might just show a biggie, and it just did! With the tenuous setup we're in, I'd like to get this under 100 hours before I toot my horn. Although the other models have agreed on a much snowier solution, which is very encouraging. Couldn't ask for a better 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Ahh even with this setup your comparing it to #3 on the NESIS chart, a VERY tall order for this storm to achieve PDII would have to produce 6-12"+ in the DC area. Its #3 for a reason, does it look like it? Yea but will it verify just as good as that its going to be a tall order even as we stand here right now looking at the models today Look at the maps of PDII Look at the monster high pressure that was perfectly situated. This isn't really like PDII except for the long duration/overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 PD II esque.... I think storms like that stand on there own . Lets see if you get the 0z then the 12z to look similar . When you are this far out figuring out a moving baroclinic zone from run to run takes time . 1 OP run or 1 suite doesn`t do it for me . Have to let the spray narrow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Its hard for me to believe we will get over a foot of snow in March... plus a lot could change and will change on these models.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 One more time.... PDII 2014 Really no comparison at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Honestly the day ten threat looks closer to PDII than the first one. Wicked high pressure over New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 The euro is fairly warm at the start. Surface and 850s right at freezing Sunday 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 The euro is fairly warm at the start. Surface and 850s right at freezing Sunday 18z That's for the initial frontal qpf. The main storm is plenty cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 That's for the initial frontal qpf. The main storm is plenty cold so the 850's remain around TTN at the height of the storm and as progged bby the king NYC is ALL snow? or is it mostly frozen with no rain being shown? from what I have gathered general agreement in 12 z suite a FT+ ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 The euro is fairly warm at the start. Surface and 850s right at freezing Sunday 18z The main event has 850 mb temperatures in the -5°C to -3°C range and surface temperatures around -5°C in NYC, as an example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 so the 850's remain around TTN at the height of the storm and as progged bby the king NYC is ALL snow? or is it mostly frozen with no rain being shown? from what I have gathered general agreement in 12 z suite a FT+ ? The euro is all snow for the main part of the storm on Monday. No ice except a bit to start on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 so the 850's remain around TTN at the height of the storm and as progged bby the king NYC is ALL snow? or is it mostly frozen with no rain being shown? from what I have gathered general agreement in 12 z suite a FT+ ?We get some light rain Sunday morning from NYC-south. By 12z Monday..surface is south of dca and 850's through Phl. By hr 150 850's to ttn and surface is still south of dca. Hr 156 temps are plenty cold for snow from dca-Boston. Verbatim ttn-south will have issues. But it's a mute point as it will change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 We get some light rain Sunday morning from NYC-south. By 12z Monday..surface is south of dca and 850's through Phl. By hr 150 850's to ttn and surface is still south of dca. Hr 156 temps are plenty cold for snow from dca-Boston. Verbatim ttn-south will have issues. But it's a mute point as it will change If wer are at same solution or emotly similar by Friday we can then all begin to get excited til lthen its beautiful eye candy though. Thx 4 headsup AllSnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 The euro is all snow for the main part of the storm on Monday. No ice except a bit to start on Sunday Thx 'Dude' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Still a lot of time for this to trend back north, weaker, etc. I wouldn't get excited about anything yet, just note this as a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 The 12z GGEM ensemble mean is just fantastic for our entire area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 It's nice to have agreement but yeah a lot can happen, but I love seeing a large widespread PV stretching across the northern US and southern Canada. Given the potential for a lot of confluence and subsidence, I'd say we are in a better spot then SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 One more time.... PDII 2014 Really no comparison at all. Idk what you're seeing Yanks, look at 500mb, PDII was a big ULL that bowled its way East...This is a stationary front that develops a weak LP but has a lot of moisture with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Yeah I think he's showing that so comparisons will not be drawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Idk what you're seeing Yanks, look at 500mb, PDII was a big ULL that bowled its way East...This is a stationary front that develops a weak LP but has a lot of moisture with it. I was posting how they are not similar..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 long duration slop. we'd be lucky to get more than 2" on the ground at any timeim not saying you are wrong.. but see.. things could change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 im not saying you are wrong.. but see.. things could change.the gfs changed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 the gfs changed? It was colder than previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 It was colder than previous runsyou missed my point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Hr 132 surface low over Tn surface and 850s below NYC euro ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Euro ensemble mean is a huge hit. Heavy snow hour 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Hr 144 mod snow for area...looks a bit warmer for the mid Atlantic on ens..other then that looks snowy for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Hour 150 heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Hour 156 snow pulling away. Runs from Sunday at noon through Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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