96blizz Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It looks like we are locking in at 12-18 inch (isolated 20 inch) snowfall area wide. I just looked at the 06 GFS and the 00Z GEFS, they are both showing 3/2 through 3/15 not breaking 32 F for a high, with 850's well below zero Celsius. Looking like emerging HECS potential such as a high end snow fall potential around next weekend or early next week based on pattern and MJO. Here is my guess for March 2014 for Central Park, keep tabs on it.... Days below 32 - 22 Days. March Snowfall 32.5 inches (snowiest March on record with one MECS and one HECS), Departure temp average -12 F, coldest March since records taken. When winter 2014 is over it may rank in #1 spot for most snow ever. I think we will crack 80 inches for NYC and LI... Just my opinion we smash all records.....Where is what you're smoking so I can get some. The 6z GFS shows a coastal RAINstorm next weekend. I will say this was entertaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 PB, the only concern is the jackpot area being just to our south due to very strong Arctic push on Sunday night, with 8-10 inches for NYC and LI and the 12-16 inch amounts about 30-40 miles to our south. A little concerned about GGEM, and NAM which is sometimes too amped at end of range showing best snow about 40 miles to our south on Monday, and would extrap to 8-10 inches between 4 PM and 4 AM Tuesday morning at best guess. If we had Greenland block and a slightly better PNA we could have phased this better and had a 20-30 inch HECS out of this. The consolation is the EURO and GFS giving our area the 12-16 inch jackpot. Mike this is a Major winter storm with close to 1.5 inches of liquid someone from I80 in NNJ through the NS of Long Island probably wind up with 18 . How much more could one want . This is a uniform 12 - 15 inches around the board . The NAM is a useful high resolution model and is ONLY to be used inside 48 hours . Its why NCEP created it . Its never used in forecast packaging when at the end of its range for that reason . The GGEM will be back , it like to lose stuff in the midrange . The entire area is jackpotted here . Should`t be too many unhappy pp early next week . ( I hope ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Where is what you're smoking so I can get some. The 6z GFS shows a coastal RAINstorm next weekend. I will say this was entertaining. as paul said the airmass a whole may be colder so I wouldn't bank on a warm rainstorm for next weekend just yet. lets get through Monday/Tuesday before looking down that road Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Inching closer and closer to a phased solution is exciting. If my eyes dont decieve me it looks the 6z GFS was close to phasing as well Well Upton is certainly aware of this possibility and cosiders it far more possible than a reduced QPF. So while they speak of a possible southern trend they are simultaneously trumpeting possibility of a phase : U can sense a bit of fear in the disco ( in a good and professional way but its between the lines ) ANOTHER SOLUTION STILL POSSIBLE IS THAT THERE IS MORE PHASING THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...THIS WOULD BRING THE LOWS...OR MORE LIKELY A SINGLE LOW TRACKING CLOSER TO THE BENCH MARK...THIS WOULD INCREASE QPF AND SNOWFALL...BUT COULD ALSO BRING THE LOW LEVEL WARM TONGUE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH. THIS IS A MORE REALISTIC POSSIBILITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 A more phased solution will bring ptype issues for a lot of us….no thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Well Upton is certainly aware of this possibility and cosiders it far more possible than a reduced QPF. So while they speak of a possible southern trend they are simultaneously trumpeting possibility of a phase : U can sense a bit of fear in the disco ( in a good and professional way but its between the lines ) ANOTHER SOLUTION STILL POSSIBLE IS THAT THERE IS MORE PHASING THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...THIS WOULD BRING THE LOWS...OR MORE LIKELY A SINGLE LOW TRACKING CLOSER TO THE BENCH MARK...THIS WOULD INCREASE QPF AND SNOWFALL...BUT COULD ALSO BRING THE LOW LEVEL WARM TONGUE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH. THIS IS A MORE REALISTIC POSSIBILITY. WOW! upton is usually not that bullish but trends on this storm are certainly leaning that way. IF it phases your talking upwards of 2' QPF/ slower mover and with the cold maybe 12:1 ratios. this is a possibility however, just pointing out what the ramifications would be if it indeed happened. this board will crash if this storm starts to look like PDII with 15"+ totals area wide with 24" lolli's if It does phase at the right time and deliver the goods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 A more phased solution will bring ptype issues for a lot of us….no thanks depending on timing though. too soon yes the coast would be in trouble and back to an inland storm but a well timed phase may not do that even down to the coast. this is still in the air whether it does happen or not allsnow, basically just opinion right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 06z gefs mean is pretty far north…tons of taint for ttn-south…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 depending on timing though. too soon yes the coast would be in trouble and back to an inland storm but a well timed phase may not do that even down to the coast. this is still in the air whether it does happen or not allsnow, basically just opinion right now Ready , Breathe , Relax . no one is in trouble .The gradient between the 2 are such that you don`t need a phase , its been rock solid . This is 1.25 - 1.50 - starts at 10 goes to 12 to 1 . Zero need to introduce P type problems for ANYONE . This is a cold storm . Just relax The 850`s on the Euro are perfect . The BL is going to be great . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 06z gefs mean is pretty far north…tons of taint for ttn-south…. South of Brick on the water maybe for a time . But this is really gona be game on here guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Ready , Breathe , Relax . no one is in trouble .The gradient between the 2 are such that you don`t need a phase , its been rock solid . This is 1.25 - 1.50 - starts at 10 goes to 12 to 1 . Zero need to introduce P type problems for ANYONE . This is a cold storm . Just relax The 850`s on the Euro are perfect . The BL is going to be great . im relaxed just stating another possibility not saying its going to phase and were going to dethrone PDII Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Ready , Breathe , Relax . no one is in trouble .The gradient between the 2 are such that you don`t need a phase , its been rock solid . This is 1.25 - 1.50 - starts at 10 goes to 12 to 1 . Zero need to introduce P type problems for ANYONE . This is a cold storm . Just relax The 850`s on the Euro are perfect . The BL is going to be great . Now it becomes time to foucs on 700 MB, does she dance? OR do we just take inches to the bank and smile? Personally Im hoping we dance with ratios most of the storm and sprinkle some banding and a nearly complete phase slightly within the BM . Nothing like a positive vibe to start out the day ( with some superstition too : Knock on wood! ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 What's up with the nam....still locked into a foot plus for Dca and va? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Now it becomes time to foucs on 700 MB, does she dance? OR do we just take inches to the bank and smile? Personally Im hoping we dance with ratios most of the storm and sprinkle some banding and a nearly complete phase slightly within the BM . Nothing like a positive vibe to start out the day ( with some superstition too : Knock on wood! ) Sux , because I cant see 700 mb temps off my pay maps . The 850`s on the Euro crash to Minus 10- for the last 6 hours and I am only ASSUMING @ 700 - we get colder too ( -12 to - 18 ) is needed for 15 to 1 , so I don't think that's in the cards . But I think we can get to 12 to 1 . Again just a guess . Looking at the NAM here would be like asking STEVE BALBONI to pinch run .Its not where the NAM is useful . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 im relaxed just stating another possibility not saying its going to phase and were going to dethrone PDII If this comes to pass the GFI has to get major kudos . I have not seen this model lock onto something 6 days out like this and hold it towithin 15 miles either side of its northern and southern fringes for this long . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Sux , because I cant see 700 mb temps off my pay maps . The 850`s on the Euro crash to Minus 10- for the last 6 hours and I am only ASSUMING @ 700 - we get colder too ( -12 to - 18 ) is needed for 15 to 1 , so I don't think that's in the cards . But I think we can get to 12 to 1 . Again just a guess . Looking at the NAM here would be like asking STEVE BALBONI to pinch run .Its not where the NAM is useful . LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL ..possible candidate for best post of the day just based on Steve balboni reference- he could form a track team with Dave Kingman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The 06Z GFS likely goes to sleet for parts of LI and maybe SRN Bklyn and Queens...there is a period where the 800-850 layer is -1 to -2C with a WSW flow of 60 knots, given how mid-level WAA is always underdone that exact scenario more likely than not ends up with some periof of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL ..possible candidate for best post of the day just based on Steve balboni reference- he could form a track team with Dave Kingman Those were some ugly days brother . I think we can get to 12 to 1 at some point . Unreal that we are going to have another major winter storm with the surface in the teens . To do it in March ,is really something . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The 06Z GFS likely goes to sleet for parts of LI and maybe SRN Bklyn and Queens...there is a period where the 800-850 layer is -1 to -2C with a WSW flow of 60 knots, given how mid-level WAA is always underdone that exact scenario more likely than not ends up with some periof of sleet. Thats fine, those of us in Queens will sacrifice an hour if it means a more phased solution for all. all for one and one for all ...Yeah yeah thata's it , that's it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 as paul said the airmass a whole may be colder so I wouldn't bank on a warm rainstorm for next weekend just yet. lets get through Monday/Tuesday before looking down that road What he said and what it is are different. I was commenting on what Mikehobbyist said he saw on the 6z GFS. Which was wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The 06Z GFS likely goes to sleet for parts of LI and maybe SRN Bklyn and Queens...there is a period where the 800-850 layer is -1 to -2C with a WSW flow of 60 knots, given how mid-level WAA is always underdone that exact scenario more likely than not ends up with some periof of sleet. At hour 78 ? I see Minus 2- 3 but the surface is in the low 20`s. The Euro is Minus 4 at that time . I really think the mixing is confined to 195 on S in NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 At hour 78 ? I see Minus 2- 3 but the surface is in the low 20`s. The Euro is Minus 4 at that time . I really think the mixing is confined to 195 on S in NJ Even if it did go over in this type of storm it would be brief and likely at the beginning, this has really transitioned away from being a true SWFE and more an initial overrunning to coastal type system deal, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Where is what you're smoking so I can get some. The 6z GFS shows a coastal RAINstorm next weekend. I will say this was entertaining. Its funny how alot of people mentioned 2/8/94 and it was on the CIPS analogs...the pattern following this is exactly like that with the big high sitting over the NE, exception is this time the southern stream wave behind it does not eject fast enough like it did on 2/11/94 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 SREFS north, NAM south. looks like GFS and EURO are pretty much the same. GGEM south like the NAM. Through all this the GFS hasn't waivered at all. I'm riding the GFS on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Those were some ugly days brother . I think we can get to 12 to 1 at some point . Unreal that we are going to have another major winter storm with the surface in the teens . To do it in March ,is really something . Remember em well my friend, im a HUGE Yanks fan but I used to peek in on the Metsies as well - just to see if Kingman can hit 1 out 600 feet! On more serious note: I think possibilty does exist for more phased solution & we will be all set by tonight to the tune of 90% certainty- Id say we are at 75% now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Even if it did go over in this type of storm it would be brief and likely at the beginning, this has really transitioned away from being a true SWFE and more an initial overrunning to coastal type system deal, Oh ok , then I can see that at the beginning as .01 is starting in Ocean county etc , This is such a backwards SWFE . You usually thump and end as snizzle . This one gets stronger and colder as we go on . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Its funny how alot of people mentioned 2/8/94 and it was on the CIPS analogs...the pattern following this is exactly like that with the big high sitting over the NE, exception is this time the southern stream wave behind it does not eject fast enough like it did on 2/11/94 This is a great Pacific dominated blocking snowy winter here with even stronger blocking than 1994. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 With a potential frozen 1.5 area wide QPF this could be the biggest area wide snow for THIS board this year . ( Not for every locale , but as a whole ) . In other words most people may pull out 12 to 15 , back in JAN the coast may have had more, in FEB NNJ and the LHV maxed out . This may just be uniform so everyone is happy . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Even if it did go over in this type of storm it would be brief and likely at the beginning, this has really transitioned away from being a true SWFE and more an initial overrunning to coastal type system deal, Hmm, I commented yesterday that I anticipated the trend to a more consolidated coastal and was called out as uninformed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Hmm, I commented yesterday that I anticipated the trend to a more consolidated coastal and was called out as uninformed. Dont be too offended by it some here think they're going to know the eventual outcome before it happens. I will say the phased solution would be great as it would noticably increase the snowfall area wide but also timing is key. Too soon it would cause p-type issues towards the coast and if it phases at the right time it would be a bonafide MECS+ for NYC area and all points surrounding it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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