Juliancolton Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The takeaway IMO is that the PV is still being contorted and shifted about to our north, and the relevant s/w is changing too; the differences are still very visible from run to run. Even though the surface looks relatively consistent, I wouldn't necessarily consider this a modern marvel of NWP just yet. My amateur opinion is that there will almost certainly be not-insignificant changes to the final solution, whether they be good or bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The Euro did come in slightly drier than 12z if you compare but still a fantastic run...and that's probably just noise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The takeaway IMO is that the PV is still being contorted and shifted about to our north, and the relevant s/w is changing too; the differences are still very visible from run to run. Even though the surface looks relatively consistent, I wouldn't necessarily consider this a modern marvel of NWP just yet. My amateur opinion is that there will almost certainly be not-insignificant changes to the final solution, whether they be good or bad. You are an intelligent poster so for your sake I hope your neck of the woods can share in the jackpot. In fact, I Hope DCA-BOS can, the more the merrier I always say 1-2 FT history makers are always welcome. Lots of KU storms only came into view last 48 hrs- PD II being a perfect example Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The agreement between the Euro and GFS is pretty remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Euro is slightly north of the 12 Z run with the heaviest snows . General 12 + at 10:1 ratios from East Central PA and SE PA into NYC and LI ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 To illustrate the upper-air changes still going on, anybody who has access: compare the 500mb field this run at hour 120 with 12z for hour 132. I can hardly believe I'm looking at the same time-frame. Obviously this storm will be long gone by then, but if you kind of "retrapolate", you can get an idea of how much really changed between the two runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 EURO IS A HIT!! 12+ NYC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It's like .07" drier likely because its a bit faster, key thing I see here is the chance of more PDII like last minute phasing, not that everyone is going to get 20-30" but 12-18" seems doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 . My amateur opinion is that there will almost certainly be not-insignificant changes to the final solution, whether they be good or bad. not-insignificant? is that anything like "significant?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 not-insignificant? is that anything like "significant?" That's not necessarily not what he didn't mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 is that anything like "significant?" No. The connotations are different. It's a pretty commonly used term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 We are in the right-rear quadrant of 250mb 150kt+ jet streak between 84-90hr. This is will cause precipitation to expand well north of the storm. Most of significant winter storms this season.had similar placement of upper-level jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Temps in the low 20s during the storm on the Euro. Insane for March. If we can get a little more phasing, this will be a HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Temps in the low 20s during the storm on the Euro. Insane for March. If we can get a little more phasing, this will be a HECS. Borderline HECS already if 15:1 ratios could verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I would still lean conservative and say 6-10" right now until we continue to see agreement and we get even closer. If by Saturday evening the models still show the same thing then I'll believe the 12"+ amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Bill evens tonight gave this storm a 50% or greater chance of being between 6-12" snowfall and a 30% chance of 12 +. That's pretty big for him this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I would still lean conservative and say 6-10" right now until we continue to see agreement and we get even closer. If by Saturday evening the models still show the same thing then I'll believe the 12"+ amounts. a low tonight in the single digits,... and a low monday night in the single digits.... and 6" to 15" of snow in between. screw the lion... march is coming in like a Siberian tiger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Bill evens tonight gave this storm a 50% or greater chance of being between 6-12" snowfall and a 30% chance of 12 +. That's pretty big for him this far out.wrong lee goldberg. Anyway this belongs in the vendor thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 So whats the verdict here folks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Most of the Global models are between 12 to 15 inches of snow at 10 to 1 . I think the last 6 hours as the 850`s are crashing to Minus 10 will make me assume they are too @ . So there`s a CHANCE @ 12 to 1 on the back end of this . But I would love to see what`s going on @ 700 before I can really say that . ( I don't have access to those temps ) . Banding is not going to be seen until we are 24 hours out . So if that`s going to happen and if you are just N or the best lift , you may see a slight enhancement there . This is followed by record COLD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Most of the Global models are between 12 to 15 inches of snow at 10 to 1 . I think the last 6 hours as the 850`s are crashing to Minus 10 will make me assume they are too @ . So there`s a CHANCE @ 12 to 1 on the back end of this . But I would love to see what`s going on @ 700 before I can really say that . ( I don't have access to those temps ) . Banding is not going to be seen until we are 24 hours out . So if that`s going to happen and if you are just N or the best lift , you may see a slight enhancement there . This is followed by record COLD. PB, the only concern is the jackpot area being just to our south due to very strong Arctic push on Sunday night, with 8-10 inches for NYC and LI and the 12-16 inch amounts about 30-40 miles to our south. A little concerned about GGEM, and NAM which is sometimes too amped at end of range showing best snow about 40 miles to our south on Monday, and would extrap to 8-10 inches between 4 PM and 4 AM Tuesday morning at best guess. If we had Greenland block and a slightly better PNA we could have phased this better and had a 20-30 inch HECS out of this. The consolation is the EURO and GFS giving our area the 12-16 inch jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 PB, the only concern is the jackpot area being just to our south due to very strong Arctic push on Sunday night, with 8-10 inches for NYC and LI and the 12-16 inch amounts about 30-40 miles to our south. A little concerned about GGEM, and NAM which is sometimes too amped at end of range showing best snow about 40 miles to our south on Monday, and would extrap to 8-10 inches between 4 PM and 4 AM Tuesday morning at best guess. If we had Greenland block and a slightly better PNA we could have phased this better and had a 20-30 inch HECS out of this. The consolation is the EURO and GFS giving our area the 12-16 inch jackpot.Who cares what the nams shows first of all, the gem had the low in the perfect spot precipitation gets eaten alive on the northern edge, and I would ride the gfs considering it has been the most consistent with the ggem being the least consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jets Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Wonder what 6z gfs has? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 6z GFS certainly not backing down. Remarkable consistency over the past couple of days...Looks like it shifted the band of heavy precip north as compared to the 18z run from yesterday and the 0z run. 18z 0z 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Euro ens are beautiful. Tick south from the op...very snowy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jets Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Hopefully 12z gfs ticks back south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Euro EnsNJLincoln Park .6"Morristown .62"Mt. Holly .68"Princeton .64"Trenton .68" AC .65" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Not quite, but close. A powerful vort swings south from MN and tries to interact with the southern vort as it hits the area. The 00z GFS last night showed increased interaction between the northern and southern vorts, more so than its 18z counterpart. Now the EURO is starting to show this possibility. That makes for an interesting wildcard scenario. This is getting mighty close to a phase. If that were to occur, we'd be looking at a bonafide HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The 00z GFS last night showed increased interaction between the northern and southern vorts, more so than its 18z counterpart. Now the EURO is starting to show this possibility. That makes for an interesting wildcard scenario. This is getting mighty close to a phase. If that were to occur, we'd be looking at a bonafide HECS.Inching closer and closer to a phased solution is exciting. If my eyes dont decieve me it looks the 6z GFS was close to phasing as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It looks like we are locking in at 12-18 inch (isolated 20-25 inch) snowfall area wide, IF phased solution. I just looked at the 06 GFS and the 00Z GEFS, they are both showing 3/2 through 3/15 not breaking 32 F for a high, with 850's well below zero Celsius. Looking like emerging HECS potential such as a high end snow fall potential around next weekend or early next week based on pattern and MJO. Here is my guess for March 2014 for Central Park, keep tabs on it.... Days below 32 - 22 Days. March Snowfall 32.5 inches (snowiest March on record with one MECS and one HECS), Departure temp average -12 F, coldest March since records taken. When winter 2014 is over it may rank in #1 spot for most snow ever. I think we will crack 80 inches for NYC and LI... Just my opinion we smash all records..... Feel 60 percent confident this happens. Let's evaluate come 4/1/2014 how this verifies. If I blow this, so be it... The only thing that is ending the winter is the sun inclination, so sublimation rates will uptick greatly by March 14th - 31st, even if pattern shows cold and snow through early April. I see lots of 26-32 degree days from 3/6 through 3/15 with maybe one day above 32. Still 16-20 below normal highs for most of first half of March. Forget Morch this year... Epic times ahead..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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