March 2- 4 Snowstorm Potential

[green tube]

 I'll be in Guatemala starting Saturday AM

 

bummer,  

 

if the the storm materializes, i hope you'll still be posting from under a palm tree.

[JetsPens87]

I thought it doesn't really matter where the DGZ is in terms of geopotential height, as long as the layer of optimal temps intersects the best vertical ascent?

Optimally the best lift would go through the DGZ, but generally the best DGZ occurs from 600 to 700 mb with the temps that JM had mentioned. Dry air in this zone would pretty much kill the DGZ.

 

I guess what you are saying is if the -12 to -18 temps were to correspond with a different layer? For instance if we had a saturated layer at 850mb with -16c temps there? If the best lift were to somehow occur at 850mb (frontogenesis I suppose at this layer would be an instance of this) and the 850mb layer was saturated then your DGZ would be in this area and you would be correct. Though there would still need to be support from the 700mb layer for this instance to occur AND the best lift would have to be at the 850mb layer and not at the 700mb layer. For most purposes the DGZ would typically be in the 600-700mb region, though your point about geopotential height is technically correct and there could be instances where the best omegas could intersect that at a different layer.

[Juliancolton]

Optimally the best lift would go through the DGZ, but generally the best DGZ occurs from 600 to 700 mb with the temps that JM had mentioned. Dry air in this zone would pretty much kill the DGZ.

But is the height something that is fixed because of pressures/thicknesses, or is that simply where the -12 to -18C temp range tends to fall? In other words, if you had strong omega between 800 and 700, and temps there were around -15C, would your snow growth be equally efficient as if it had occurred between 700 and 600, all else being equal?

 

Edit: you may have already answered but I'm one of them simple-minded folk; I need it pretty much spelled out for me. Thanks in advance!

[snow1]

GGEM is pretty much awful for everybody here, especially compared to the GFS. It's 2-4 for everyone here, except slightly more in SNJ.

Maps??

[jm1220]

If this comes and makes its potential, this will be the first storm I can think of that came on a "silver platter" without any freak out and panic periods. That superstitious thing also kinda scares me too. We never get those kind of storms here it seems unlike places in more established climate zones like Boston (2/8/13 was progged to slam them for days) and DC (2/6/10). I'm still in skeptic mode but hopefully I can change that soon. Knocks on wood...

[nyblizz44]

It's fine man, as I told you I was not upset and always welcome good discussion and debate. I just wish you had approached it in a different manner than you chose to do.

If everyone here was THIS civilzed then I think we would all enjoy the experience of understanding and appreciating the weathe rthat much more. That this comes from a Red Tagger makes it all the more impressive. Hats off to you Jets # Respect

[RCNYILWX]

I don't want to imply that truly excessive amounts are on the table but this setup is somewhat reminiscent of PD2. Split flow with a very moisture laden southern stream system encountering an arctic airmass/huge banana high, is likely to result in a snowy outcome for most if not all of greater NYC given the presence of the PV to keep height rises in check and the +NAO to not force the upper wave too far I south.

Though there's still time for changes, at this point hard to see the NYC area not getting in on good snows. For those up in upstate NY and NE sweating the northern fringe, I think there's room for northward movement. Back in 03 with PD2 I was in school in central NY, and we were supposed to miss out completely on the storm ( we got down to -25 and SLK got down to -40 the night before the storm), but with the NAO flipping positive, ended up getting about 1' of snow from it. So while the PV will keep things in check some, I don't buy any far south solutions with this setup, though any changes shouldn't affect the bottom line that the NYC area will be part of the sweet spot.

[Rjay]

change the date and time and you are good to go

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

[JetsPens87]

But is the height something that is fixed because of pressures/thicknesses, or is that simply where the -12 to -18C temp range tends to fall? In other words, if you had strong omega between 800 and 700, and temps there were around -15C, would your snow growth be equally efficient as if it had occurred between 700 and 600, all else being equal?

 

Edit: you may have already answered but I'm one of them simple-minded folk; I need it pretty much spelled out for me. Thanks in advance!

 

Hey I just edited my post and added some more explanation. That may help further my answer. In short, yes you are correct.

[earthlight]

I don't want to imply that truly excessive amounts are on the table but this setup is somewhat reminiscent of PD2. Split flow with a very moisture laden southern stream system encountering an arctic airmass/huge banana high, is likely to result in a snowy outcome for most if not all of greater NYC given the presence of the PV to keep height rises in check and the +NAO to not force the upper wave too far I south.

Though there's still time for changes, at this point hard to see the NYC area not getting in on good snows. For those up in upstate NY and NE sweating the northern fringe, I think there's room for northward movement. Back in 03 with PD2 I was in school in central NY, and we were supposed to miss out completely on the storm ( we got down to -25 and SLK got down to -40 the night before the storm), but with the NAO flipping positive, ended up getting about 1' of snow from it. So while the PV will keep things in check some, I don't buy any far south solutions with this setup, though any changes shouldn't affect the bottom line that the NYC area will be part of the sweet spot.

 

I think the overall setup is similar to PDII (the reason I  am responding to this in the first place is because I thought the same thing), but this is a much "lighter" version of that setup. The more I look at these maps, and the fact that it could produce a moderate to major event, the more I realize how much of a beast PDII really was. Hard to see a setup like that -- a once in a lifetime event I think. 

[Thunder7842]

People aren't too concerned about the Canadian? As long as GFS and Euro agree, the Canadian solution is very unlikely?

[Juliancolton]

Hey I just edited my post and added some more explanation. That may help further my answer. In short, yes you are correct.

That definitely helps! Thanks for taking the time to answer, much appreciated.

[JetsPens87]

People aren't too concerned about the Canadian? As long as GFS and Euro agree, the Canadian solution is very unlikely?

 

It's hard for me to say very unlikely, though the consistency of the GFS certainly makes me lean towards it right now over the erratic GGEM at this point. The GFS IMO became further validated today at 12z by the Euro moving towards it.

[RCNYILWX]

I think the overall setup is similar to PDII (the reason I am responding to this in the first place is because I thought the same thing), but this is a much "lighter" version of that setup. The more I look at these maps, and the fact that it could produce a moderate to major event, the more I realize how much of a beast PDII really was. Hard to see a setup like that -- a once in a lifetime event I think.

There was some mention of 2/6/10 and that wasn't a good analog so I thought back to the synoptic setup for PDII. A lot of the same factors in place here. While I completely agree this is likely to be a lighter version of that and it shows what an extreme event PDII was, it'll be interesting to watch the impacts on the west Coast. If the rain in SOCAL overperforms a bit and we account for the added Gulf moisture via the LLJ as the system traverses the Ohio Valley, could result in slightly higher liquid amounts than currently modeled, which has been mentioned by some posters.

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

It's hard for me to say very unlikely, though the consistency of the GFS certainly makes me lean towards it right now over the erratic GGEM at this point. The GFS IMO became further validated today at 12z by the Euro moving towards it.

Bingo. My thoughts exactly.

[JetsPens87]

That definitely helps! Thanks for taking the time to answer, much appreciated.

Anytime my friend. Any other questions please don't hesitate to ask. I'll try to provide the best possible answer I can.

[Zir0b]

Anyone have the 00z GFS ensembles? I'd appreciate any info. 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Anyone have the 00z GFS ensembles? I'd appreciate any info. 

 

The 00Z GEFS is identical to the OP. 

[tdp146]

Hey I just edited my post and added some more explanation. That may help further my answer. In short, yes you are correct.

Thanks for this

[Weathergun]

The 0z GEFS has .75 - 1.25" total qpf and is cold. Simialr to the OP. The GGEM has the PV forcing the second wave further south.

 

Btw, PD II had closed 500mb low over Ohio Valley. The coastal low intensified at last moment.

[Weathergun]

96hr on the UKMET looks flatter and further south.

 

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

The 0z GEFS has .75 - 1.25" total qpf and is cold. Simialr to the OP. The GGEM has the PV forcing the second wave further south.

Btw, PD II had closed 500mb low over Ohio Valley. The coastal low intensified at last moment.

Yea GGEM is way south of the gfs and euro IMO ... It often plays catch up tho this far out

[Juliancolton]

Euro is rolling, and wow... in the immediate short range, the PV seems more consolidated still. Not sure what to think as of now.

[nyblizz44]

Euro is rolling, and wow... in the immediate short range, the PV seems more consolidated still. Not sure what to think as of now.

Implication being even more south...??

[Juliancolton]

Implication being even more south...??

No idea, I'm not in the practice of forecasting the models. I'll post any appreciable changes as I see them with the new frames.

[nyblizz44]

No idea, I'm not in the practice of forecasting the models. I'll post any appreciable changes as I see them with the new frames.

Appreciate it

[IsentropicLift]

The 00z Euro is looking really good so far

[IsentropicLift]

Light snow hour 72, 850mb freezing line south of the Mason Dixon line to south of ACY.

[JetsPens87]

Light snow hour 72, 850mb freezing line south of the Mason Dixon line.

How's the pv influence looking so far?

[GiantBlizzard2003]

Yanksfan27 thanks for the PBP.