kevbo81 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 i haven't seen this much agreement with the models since the 2/10-11/2010 storm...doesn't mean it has to be right, but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 No offense, but this is the New York City Subforum Jeepers... give him a break. I'm a bit closer to Albany than NYC but this is still basically my "home" forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Cmon late week storm now (yes I'm greedy)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 1.3 QPF CNJ thru NNJ SENY boarder I80 across KNYC onto Long Island . This is a wide spread 12- 15 plus 1.5 Just W of Philly 1.4 thru Metro Philly WB QPF . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Gfs has been on lock down mode with this one.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Oh really? Because it shows .01" precip over 6 hours on Sunday means it much longer lol? In essence the bulk of accumulating snowfall is from 81to 99. ^ This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Hate being in the bullseye 4 days out!! So much could change in one day!!!! Hope it doesn't but a little worried it might...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I'm not going to get into a spitting contest with you over a day 4 GFS run. Not all of what it shows for Sunday won't actually fall. Well you laughed at my comment and chose to disagree. So I'd like to hear your side. Im quite civil sir. No spitting contest will be had by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Oh really? Because it shows .01" precip over 6 hours on Sunday means it much longer lol? In essence the bulk of accumulating snowfall is from 81to 99. It's flurries and light snow sunday night. Real storm is 06z Monday to 00z Tuesday 18 hours.. Storm is done by 00z Tuesday on GFS .. only .01" after hour 96.. storms always end quicker than modeled and starts quicker especially with overrunning, I can see this starting Sunday night but ending before the Monday evening commute if the GFS is right. We will see if the whole thing trends slower.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Can someone post an NCEP map and see if this is close . Many Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I try to cover all areas, not just my backyard, or yours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It's flurries and light snow sunday night. Real storm is 06z Monday to 00z Tuesday 18 hours.. Storm is done by 00z Tuesday on GFS .. only .01" after hour 96.. storms always end quicker than modeled and starts quicker especially with overrunning, I can see this starting Sunday night but ending before the Monday evening commute if the GFS is right. We will see if the whole thing trends slower.. Thank you. Like I said bulk appears to come in a 12-18 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Jeepers... give him a break. I'm a bit closer to Albany than NYC but this is still basically my "home" forum. No offense, but this is the New York City Subforum I agree. Lay off yanks fan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Guys , stop being disrespectful to Red Taggers who are nice to enough to post here . This is getting serious now . I can`t tell you how bad this comes across Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Guys , stop being disrespectful to Red Taggers who are nice to enough to post here . This is getting serious now . I can`t tell you how bad this comes across Thank you, completely fine if he disagrees with my opinion, but I could have done without being laughed at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Guys , stop being disrespectful to Red Taggers who are nice to enough to post here . This is getting serious now . I can`t tell you how bad this comes across This..unbelievable!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 So few hours ago this storm was going to be a 24-48hr storm. Now it shows a short duration... and more snow..and we are mad about it? Im lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NCEP is generally around 1" QPF for all of us, a bit less north, a bit more south. Weatherbell seems overdone and unnecessarily detailed with qpf bullseyes and holes everywhere.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Thank you, completely fine if he disagrees with my opinion, but I could have done without being laughed at. But there was nothing to disagree with you over. So no worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Guys , stop being disrespectful to Red Taggers who are nice to enough to post here . This is getting serious now . I can`t tell you how bad this comes across Agree…hopefully a mod steps in. report the posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I think it's quite clear from looking at the GFS run, that any accumulating snow would begin in the early morning hours Monday Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 most storms projected to be long duration never pan out, it's just model uncertainty that gets ironed out as the model figures it out closer in, but I can see how there is light snow and flurries all day sunday maybe some light accumulations.. but again the real snow is sunday night and first 2/3rds of Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 With all due respect, I whole heartedly disagree with you, and the lol was a point of emphasis. That's fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 most storms projected to be long duration never pan out, it's just model uncertainty that gets ironed out as the model figures it out closer in, but I can see how there is light snow and flurries all day sunday maybe some light accumulations.. but again the real snow is sunday night and first 2/3rds of Monday.yes I have learned this over the years. I laughed when this was shown as 48-60+ hour event. I do want to experience one of those once in my life. Probably will have to be in the mountains of Cali or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 This in essence is a 12 to maybe 18 hour event on the gfs. Sounds about right. 18+ hour events, let alone 24 hour events are so hard to come by without great blocking. PD2 is obviously a great example of a true long duration event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Its all semantics. The "event" lasts about 30 hours but the bulk of the accumulations fall in an 18-20hr window Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I wasn't arguing that the bulk of the storm isn't Monday, but what happens to all the QPF that falls Sunday and Sunday night? Whether light or not, it's still part of the same storm. Come Sunday we'll see who's buying and who's crying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 That's fine.And I meant no disrespect. I just don't see how you can call that run on the low end a 12 hour event, especially when WAA snows almost always arrive faster than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Uggggh, please just stop bickering and stick to analysis and hoping the good run continues. At least use the banter thread. We've chased away enough mets and good contributors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 He said essence, and he's right. Laughing at a red tag is a sure fire way to get suspended. You're lucky I'm not still a mod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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