JetsPens87 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 What impact do you think sudden stratospheric warming might have on the dendritic snow growth region above my house, i.e., do you think that will affect the chances of getting at least 12" of snow in Metuchen? Sorry, couldn't resist... What impact do you think sudden stratospheric warming might have on the dendritic snow growth region above my house, i.e., do you think that will affect the chances of getting at least 12" of snow in Metuchen? Sorry, couldn't resist... I'd be more concerned with cosmic dust perpetrating through to the snow growth region and binding with otherwise perfect dendrites creating a little known phenom known as cosmites. These cosmites if they don't melt however can result in 55:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 That uber close phase on the 18z gfs run really raised some eyebrows in here. The GFS has really been pretty good with this system overall, the GL phase if it were to happen would need to thread the needle timing wise. Key word is IF it happened The problem with not realizing how far out 96 hours is in numerical modeling is because you`ve been pinned here since hour 168 . And not just you , but all of us . So it`s normal to say , what about now , what about now . I always want to be inside 48 hours before talking amounts . Does it look great , DEF , But you are going to know soon enough . If the GFS is right then John will be right with this amount from earlier . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I'd be more concerned with cosmic dust perpetrating through to the snow growth region and binding with otherwise perfect dendrites creating a little known phenom known as cosmites. These cosmites if they don't melt however can result in 55:1 ratios. nice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 If that first wave happens like the NAM and GGEM show it almost guarantees the 2nd system is snow for almost everyone in here because it will likely result in the entire thermal gradient being pushed more south...its likely thats why the GGEM was as far south as it was on the 12Z run...the NAM at 84 hours is actually fairly suppressed given its tendency, that would probably be a big hit for SNJ more so than NYC if it extended out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 If that first wave happens like the NAM and GGEM show it almost guarantees the 2nd system is snow for almost everyone in here because it will likely result in the entire thermal gradient being pushed more south...its likely thats why the GGEM was as far south as it was on the 12Z run...the NAM at 84 hours is actually fairly suppressed given its tendency, that would probably be a big hit for SNJ more so than NYC if it extended out. That's why they have the dgex...and that's what it has shown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Do not even consider the solution the NAM after 54 hours is not very useful. Look at the GFS and ECMWF then discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 If that first wave happens like the NAM and GGEM show it almost guarantees the 2nd system is snow for almost everyone in here because it will likely result in the entire thermal gradient being pushed more south...its likely thats why the GGEM was as far south as it was on the 12Z run...the NAM at 84 hours is actually fairly suppressed given its tendency, that would probably be a big hit for SNJ more so than NYC if it extended out. This is the "worry" with the usually amped models being more suppressed at the end of their range. It would likely result in a less significant and shorter duration event however on the other hand it'd be much colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Do not even consider the solution the NAM after 54 hours is not very useful. Look at the GFS and ECMWF then discuss. +1 The NAM is a useless model until 24-48 hrs and under and then it is sometimes still useless! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I cannot really tell where the RGEM is going through the end of it's run it is definitely thermally similar to the nam but otherwise more like the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 +1 The NAM is a useless model until 24-48 hrs and under and then it is sometimes still useless! The ggem showed something similar. Wouldn't completely discount a solution like that though as long as the gfs/euro don't start a suppression trend we should be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 +1 The NAM is a useless model until 24-48 hrs and under and then it is sometimes still useless! Ind. solutions may be garbage, however trend/ and "tells" can actually be quite useful especially when compared/blended with the rest of the guidance. I doubt you'd find one respectable met that would base a forecast off of the long range NAM(trust me I've seen it done though). But certain tells, like a usually overamped model being suppressed is a tell to be on the lookout for track changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Ind. solutions may be garbage, however trend/ and "tells" can actually be quite useful especially when compared/blended with the rest of the guidance. I doubt you'd find one respectable met that would base a forecast off of the long range NAM(trust me I've seen it done though). But certain tells, like a usually overamped model being suppressed is a tell to be on the lookout for track changes. This would ultimately be a case of the NAM backing it's way into the right idea, if for whatever reason it sees the first wave which the GFS does not and that ends up being right the NAM will nail the 2nd wave purely because physics will force it to, I'd score this a cheap win for the NAM if it somehow does end up correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Ind. solutions may be garbage, however trend/ and "tells" can actually be quite useful especially when compared/blended with the rest of the guidance. I doubt you'd find one respectable met that would base a forecast off of the long range NAM(trust me I've seen it done though). But certain tells, like a usually overamped model being suppressed is a tell to be on the lookout for track changes. A few times this winter the end of run NAM had the weaker solution. This may be the case again, time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 We still have 12 more NAM/GFS and 6 more GGEM/ECMWF runs to go just to get to Sunday night. To expect things to end up exactly how the show up tonight and even tomorrow is un wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yup that was the famous Snowmageddon for DC, Baltimore and Philly. If I'm not mistaken the largest snow gradient on record between NYC and PHL in a single storm. ~20" at PHL, T at NYC. 28" in Philly right? I have a few flurries on the south shore of Nassau Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Cold pressing down harder and the wave out west is stronger, couldn't ask for more so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 thru hr 48 i really don't see many changes…pv position looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 thru hr 48 i really don't see many changes…pv position looks great Shortwave out west looks a tad stronger, PV a tick SE (better), but reeally nothing crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 We still have 12 more NAM/GFS and 6 more GGEM/ECMWF runs to go just to get to Sunday night. To expect things to end up exactly how the show up tonight and even tomorrow is un wise. All weather models are perfect machines of mathematical calculation. It is only human misinterpretations of their inconsistencies with reality that are in error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 All weather models are perfect machines of mathematical calculation. It is only human misinterpretations of their inconsistencies with reality that are in error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Looking really good, its a touch colder than 18z and the shortwave out west is stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Light snow over northern sections Sunday mid day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 hr 69 light snow in area 540/850/surface by phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Light over running snows now pretty much from about noon on during Sunday. Extending out the event, what I like to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 That shortwave looks amazing. Going to to be a great run for the area imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Very small differences from 18z regarding our sensible weather thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 hr 72 850's to mason dixon line…surface just south of baltimore..540 phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Light over running snows now pretty much from about noon on during Sunday. Extending out the event, what I like to see. Very very light lol. Could even be virga with the drier colder air pushing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 HP over plains looks north of 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 hr 75 light snow continues…surface below dca…everything else the same as hr 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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