IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Unless you're on the immediate Jersey coast, Eastern LI or southeast of 95 in SNJ you won't have much plain rain to deal with per the current 12z GFS run. North of that area will be periods of moderate snow, poor ratio snow, sleet, freezing rain and maybe even a little of plain rain depending on your exact location. It's truly the kitchen sink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Navgem Luckily that model is garbage and has a southeast bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Unless you're on the immediate Jersey coast, Eastern LI or southeast of 95 in SNJ you won't have much plain rain to deal with per the current 12z GFS run. North of that area will be periods of moderate snow, poor ratio snow, sleet, freezing rain and maybe even a little of plain rain depending on your exact location. It's truly the kitchen sink. Good post covering all areas!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 From what the 12z GFS says verbatim, we just need it to trend a couple ticks colder then we'll be in good shape as far as snow with minimum impacts of ice. That being said, with the way these models have been this winter, its a good bet King Euro will give us an entire different good or bad scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 12z GGEM looks similiar to the GFS. Long duration event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 A bit off topic but brutal cold returns again mid-March as we have yet another visit from the PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 CAD overruning special on 12z GFS like 0z Euro ens with weak waves of low pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Ice storms in March are a rarity but we may have one on our hands early next week.I'd rather get rn+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 CAD overruning special on 12z GFS like 0z Euro ens with weak waves of low pressure. LGA.png OKX.png No rain at all. Much colder than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 The 12z GFS is 6-12" snow and mix from central Kansas east to southern New England including NYC Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 12z GGEM also came in much colder and further south. Mostly frozen for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Not that it was really brought up but to put to bed any PDII comparisons. PDII 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 No rain at all. Much colder than 6z. We need the waves of LP to stay weak with sheared pieces of energy ejecting from the SW to pull this off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 We need the waves of LP to stay weak with sheared pieces of energy ejecting from the SW to pull this off.bingo...was trying to get this thru to ppl earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 We need the waves of LP to stay weak with sheared pieces of energy ejecting from the SW to pull this off. Exactly. A strong low is going to bring in warm air and track inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 PD II looks nothing like this IMO, this is a frontal boundary, overrunning storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 We need the waves of LP to stay weak with sheared pieces of energy ejecting from the SW to pull this off. All you really need is for the PV in Western Canada to stay put with either late phasing or no phasing. The moisture riding up the gradient will produce prolonged periods of over running precip/snows. The danger exists if this completely phases out west, but that would still be quite the marvel to see and we'd still get good front end snows. If the CAD ends up stronger and the low ends up stronger it could end rather ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 The 12z GGEM is a MECS. 850mb, 925mb, 2m temps are very cold with overrunning and coastal. Over 1" over qpf. 10-15" of snow for our area, through 168hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 The 12z GGEM is a MECS. 850mb, 925mb, 2m temps are very cold with overrunning and coastal. It's very similar to the GFS. Sharp cut off 75-100 miles north of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 12z GEFS ensemble mean is gorgeous. Gets a little warm at the immediate coast for a short period but it's 1"+ area wide mostly frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 PD II looks nothing like this IMO, this is a frontal boundary, overrunning storm anytime a storm has a decent duration of overrunning, people just spit out PDII Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Nice HP on the GGEM, ton of moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 12z GEFS ensemble mean is gorgeous. Gets a little warm at the immediate coast for a short period but it's 1"+ area wide mostly frozen. Where do you get the mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 12z GEFS ensemble mean is gorgeous. Gets a little warm at the immediate coast for a short period but it's 1"+ area wide mostly frozen. the individuals are all over the place though, so its kind of a skewed mean, so right now take it FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Where do you get the mean? Storm Vista. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 It's very similar to the GFS. Sharp cut off 75-100 miles north of NYC. It's much colder aloft. The 850mb low tracks into West VA then transfers south of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 12z GGEM snowmap shows 12+ for the NYC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I'll give you the high res breakdown of the 12z GGEM... Light snow moving in Sunday around noon. Periods of light snow pretty much all afternoon Sunday and overnight into Monday morning. Moderate snow moving in around Monday at noon. Heavy snow Monday afternoon and evening. Heaviest snows 6PM Monday night through about 6AM Tuesday morning. Light snow persisting through Tuesday afternoon. 12"+ from Cape May County northward to southern portions of the LHV. 24"+ for northern West Virginia. <6" for Boston area. <3" for NNE. Zippo for most of Maine. Most of Upstate NY is under warning criteria outside of the Upton Zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 For those complaining about BL issues or mixing problems I have just one question for you... What are you going to do next year when we go 3 weeks or more without even having something to track? That's normal winter for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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