Franklin0529 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Great.. So we are looking at a decent storm here. Maybe 12+ for 2/3 of state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Keep an eye out on that northern vort in the great lakes to see if it interacts with our southern vort on tonights 00z GFS run. It came perilously close to a phase at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 What will a phase mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Some shots of the storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 What will a phase mean? Longer duration / heavier snow totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 What time is the 00z run? 11pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxbowler83 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 10:30pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 What time is the 00z run? 11pm The GFS initializes at 10:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Great.. So we are looking at a decent storm here. Maybe 12+ for 2/3 of state Nothing is a lock yet ..still time for a shift south or back north but right now we have fairly decent model consensus for still being 72-84 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Is a foot + possible in most of the state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Is a foot + possible in most of the state the phase would be key that would really help ramp up some of the totals and up the QPF. however I still think S.NJ is going to have some p-type issues regardless. just keep an eye on the 0z trends tonight for that phase as it could really make this storm more special than it is now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Longer duration / heavier snow totals What will a phase mean? Depends when the phase occurs, if it phases too early it would rain, if the phase happens when it is to our east then we would get a heavier snowstorm possible a blizzard. In my opinion the chances for a phase up are very small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Depends when the phase occurs, if it phases too early it would rain, if the phase happens when it is to our east then we would get a heavier snowstorm possible a blizzard. In my opinion the chances for a phase up are very small. this as it would be a true thread the needle. the way this winter has gone though would it surprise you though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 If the 00z holds serve or little colder. Will you guys be confident in saying a foot for Monmouth county north to Hudson valley? With locally higher amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 If the 00z holds serve or little colder. Will you guys be confident in saying a foot for Monmouth county north to Hudson valley? With locally higher amountsi'd wait until 0z friday night to even get serious about amounts. Maybe even saturday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 If the 00z holds serve or little colder. Will you guys be confident in saying a foot for Monmouth county north to Hudson valley? With locally higher amounts PLEASE stop with the IMBY Franklin. listen to the analysis, take notes on the setup etc and find some sites that carry the model runs so you can see and learn yourself. I know your trying to learn and you are a weenie but im giving you a heads up as this gets closer and possibly bigger these posts are going to be dealt with accordingly. you probably mean well but be more intuitive and more comprehensive here first ok? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 If the 00z holds serve or little colder. Will you guys be confident in saying a foot for Monmouth county north to Hudson valley? With locally higher amounts For most areas, maybe 10-15".....but between Belford and Keansburg, probably more like 2-4"...ocean influence bringing in warmer air should really cut it down for those areas specifically Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 If the 00z holds serve or little colder. Will you guys be confident in saying a foot for Monmouth county north to Hudson valley? With locally higher amounts haha relax buddy -- things look pretty good but the devils in the details and thats always ironed out within 24 hours -- no need to ask with each run how monmouth county does on each run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 haha relax buddy -- things look pretty good but the devils in the details and thats always ironed out within 24 hours -- no need to ask with each run how monmouth county does on each run.. PB GFI will handle that. spokesperson on here for Monmouth county, NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The 00z NAM might end up like the GGEM, a warmer first part but a colder and snowy second. The PV was a bit slower to get in position but the shortwave in the southwest is slower & deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAMSTORM22 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 For most areas, maybe 10-15".....but between Belford and Keansburg, probably more like 2-4"...ocean influence bringing in warmer air should really cut it down for those areas specifically Sent from my iPhone That's low, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 If the 00z holds serve or little colder. Will you guys be confident in saying a foot for Monmouth county north to Hudson valley? With locally higher amounts Short answer.... no. It's hard to put any good amount of confidence in an amount forecast on Thursday night when the event is coming Sunday. I know you mean well, but the IMBY questions (now matter how you try to word them lol) are just not going to be well received here. Follow the discussion, follow the models (grrr) and you will garner an idea of where this is headed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 @ 54 hours the NAM has a stronger shortwave out west, the cold is a bit slower, HOWEVER, that might be okay...I'd love for the energy out west to trend stronger as long as the cold gets in here eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 PB GFI will handle that. spokesperson on here for Monmouth county, NJ Thank you , there are like 5 of us on here and all those guys are real good . Once inside 72 hours , the door starts to close and the amounts get real tight . We are getting close Ryan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Thank you , there are like 5 of us on here and all those guys are real good . Once inside 72 hours , the door starts to close and the amounts get real tight . We are getting close Ryan That uber close phase on the 18z gfs run really raised some eyebrows in here. The GFS has really been pretty good with this system overall, the GL phase if it were to happen would need to thread the needle timing wise. Key word is IF it happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILiveforThis! Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 What time is the 00z run? 11pm http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboututc.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Short answer.... no. It's hard to put any good amount of confidence in an amount forecast on Thursday night when the event is coming Sunday. I know you mean well, but the IMBY questions (now matter how you try to word them lol) are just not going to be well received here. Follow the discussion, follow the models (grrr) and you will garner an idea of where this is headed. What impact do you think sudden stratospheric warming might have on the dendritic snow growth region above my house, i.e., do you think that will affect the chances of getting at least 12" of snow in Metuchen? Sorry, couldn't resist... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 What impact do you think sudden stratospheric warming might have on the dendritic snow growth region above my house, i.e., do you think that will affect the chances of getting at least 12" of snow in Metuchen? Sorry, couldn't resist... Depends on how many ships are sailing within a couple hundred miles of the coast.....could trigger a narrow band of ocean effect snow Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Nam is quite robust and warm with the initial wave. Unfortunately a plausible solution as the PV hasn't started to press yet so we are left with the flow coming around the SE ridge. Therefore temps start in the sauna and begin to crash as precip moves in (albeit quite warm and slow to drop initially) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yeah Jets, NAM is kind of like the GGEM at 12z, 2 part system, I think it is too slow with the PV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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