IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I love the way the GFS is handling this system. Something HAS to be said here for its consistency to this point. Obv little fluctuations one way or the other, but wow im quite impressed with it. The Northern Stream's PV position is probably giving the GFS the advantage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 DGEX looks suppressed, north of NYC sharp cutoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 DGEX looks suppressed, north of NYC sharp cutoff Same as earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 DGEX is just an extension of the NAM, its a waste of a model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 DGEX is just an extension of the NAM, its a waste of a model. Yeah but the nam and dgex are notoriously amped at this range most of the time that definitely adds weight to this possibly being more along the lines of a GEM or Euro track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The cutoff in DGEX reminds me of that storm a few years ago (forgot exactly when but you folks with elephant memories would know) where the precip hit a brick wall thru central jersey and nicked southern Staten Island-was nightmarish! Obviously the cutoff is further north in this scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The 18Z GFS has a twelve hour period of moderate snow on Monday 03/03/14. I'll take it as we move towards the all time NYC sesonal snowfall record. Anyway, for fair disclosure: its the 18Z model, just one model, and the storm to be sampled is still off the pacific coast of California. Need to wait and monitor upcoming modeling over the next two days before this system is a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The cutoff in DGEX reminds me of that storm a few years ago (forgot exactly when but you folks with elephant memories would know) where the precip hit a brick wall thru central jersey and nicked southern Staten Island-was nightmarish! Obviously the cutoff is further north in this scenario.2/6/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Thoughts on ratios from any Met? I think 12:1 is easily possible when the heavy snow comes in. Looks cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Thoughts on ratios from any Met? I think 12:1 is easily possible when the heavy snow comes in. Looks cold. 12 to 1, there is an "inversion" and mid level warming in the 800-870 layer where temps are as warm as -3 to -5c so the optimal temps at 700mb may be negated a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Thoughts on ratios from any Met? I think 12:1 is easily possible when the heavy snow comes in. Looks cold. yea IF the 18z verified it would be in the teens a lot of places including the coasts maybe getting to the low 20's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Yeah but the nam and dgex are notoriously amped at this range most of the time that definitely adds weight to this possibly being more along the lines of a GEM or Euro track The NAM at 84 hours looked really good, cold was beginning to anchor in and VVs over the midwest were lighting up...The shortwave looked really good at 84 hours, I think the DGEX uses GFS physics though Iam not sure..... I promise you guys once we get closer the NAM will show some crazy QPF amounts with the tight gradient. I will almost bet a 15 day ban that there will be a run or 2 that show 1.5+ for Philly/NYC lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 12-15:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 2/6/10 Yea that's the one. Man the radar on that storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The NAM at 84 hours looked really good, cold was beginning to anchor in and VVs over the midwest were lighting up...The shortwave looked really good at 84 hours, I think the DGEX uses GFS physics though Iam not sure..... I promise you guys once we get closer the NAM will show some crazy QPF amounts with the tight gradient. I will almost bet a 15 day ban that there will be a run or 2 that show 1.5+ for Philly/NYC lol. Models are already showing 1.25" so 1.5" isn't too crazy. And this isn't the type of system to yield 2" plus runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Yea that's the one. Man the radar on that storm! some said that if that would've turned the corner it would have been EPIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 This is during the peak of the storm, temps are very cold for a March snowfall, WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 12 to 1, there is an "inversion" and mid level warming in the 800-870 layer where temps are as warm as -3 to -5c so the optimal temps at 700mb may be negated a bit Thanks Bud. That's why some of the IWM maps are showing the LVH with a foot plus with less QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 some said that if that would've turned the corner it would have been EPIC Last OT question related to this: was the brick wall modeled correctly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 This is during the peak of the storm, temps are very cold for a March snowfall, WOW Salt is not going to be effective at those temps... sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 12 to 1, there is an "inversion" and mid level warming in the 800-870 layer where temps are as warm as -3 to -5c so the optimal temps at 700mb may be negated a bit What happens when well-formed dendrites from the DGZ fall through a warmer layer that is still below 0C? Is the crystal structure compromised? I can't imagine any melting takes place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Last OT question related to this: was the brick wall modeled correctly?Yes. More or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Last OT question related to this: was the brick wall modeled correctly? The nam nailed it the GFS with it's lower resolution was much further north, nobody ever bought the nam would be correct as a matter of fact most thought the GFS would verify too far south hence upton going 3-5 for NYC but being unsure since it could be nothing or double that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The nam nailed it the GFS with it's lower resolution was much further north, nobody ever bought the nam would be correct as a matter of fact most thought the GFS would verify too far south hence upton going 3-5 for NYC but being unsure since it could be nothing or double that Thanks, who knows we could have a similar scenario this time tho in a diff spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pstar3182 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The 18Z GFS has a twelve hour period of moderate snow on Monday 03/03/14. I'll take it as we move towards the all time NYC sesonal snowfall record. Anyway, for fair disclosure: its the 18Z model, just one model, and the storm to be sampled is still off the pacific coast of California. Need to wait and monitor upcoming modeling over the next two days before this system is a lock. I find it troubled to see TV mets jumped on the 18z so fast?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU4Real Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 This is during the peak of the storm, temps are very cold for a March snowfall, WOW If those temps verify the winds are gonna be screaming across the Chesapeake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I find it troubled to see TV mets jumped on the 18z so fast?!?! True, when torn between ratings, director pressure and the responsibility to inform the public of a potential winter storm 3 days away the TV mets walk a fine line. At this time frame it is best to frame the potential winter storm in probabilities and wait on any talk of accumulations. Weather forecasting is very challenging and nothing should be considered absolute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The nam nailed it the GFS with it's lower resolution was much further north, nobody ever bought the nam would be correct as a matter of fact most thought the GFS would verify too far south hence upton going 3-5 for NYC but being unsure since it could be nothing or double thatI was working at OKX that day and also remember looking at the NAM with forecasters leading up to the event and wondering if it could be right with that insane cutoff. As a snow lover, it was pretty painful to experience with good bands up to the immediate south shore of LI, southern BK, SI and Union County NJ and heavy snow in Monmouth County. The vertically pointing radar at Stony Brook University had at least a 9hr long virga storm, with only a few periods where the snow survived through the dry layer. NYC conceivably could have ended up over 50" that February if not for the near miss on 2/6/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Gefs mean is amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I was working at OKX that day and also remember looking at the NAM with forecasters leading up to the event and wondering if it could be right with that insane cutoff. As a snow lover, it was pretty painful to experience with good bands up to the immediate south shore of LI, southern BK, SI and Union County NJ and heavy snow in Monmouth County. The vertically pointing radar at Stony Brook University had at least a 9hr long virga storm, with only a few periods where the snow survived through the dry layer. NYC conceivably could have ended up over 50" that February if not for the near miss on 2/6/10. Is this that infamous storm where ACY wound up with a major blizzard at 20 inches and KNYC wound up with 20 flurries and areas as near as S.I had 3-6? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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