IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Hour 93 moderate snow area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Shortwave looks really good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Can it have a happy medium ? Absolutely. See 12zgfs/12z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Obviously someone just trying to get a rise out of poople...err people here Anyway, here are some of my thoughts on this system. 1.There is no room IMO for the amplification that the Euro was showing yesterday, my main concern is and will be suppression/and dry air eating on the northern side of the precip shield. 2. Be careful assuming that Hp to the north means higher ratios, that is a SFC high and will only aide in keeping the surface colder 3. That PV means business and that confluence to the north is nothing to laugh at, this is also why I expect a solution most consistent with where the models seem to be today. Also, i'd be very cautious accepting such long durations/and waves towards the end, the PV will likely shear this out pretty quickly and I think we are left with an 18-24 hour event and even that may be pushing it in the end. 4. I can't say i'm entirely thrilled at the setup, yes there is a massive storm crashing into the west coast but what I think we are left with by the time it gets here is a shearing out system that will provide us with a significant overrunning event and probably not too much more than that. 5. Im reluctant(very much so) to start throwing numbers around but if I were to guess on where we were with this system id place the heaviest (6-12) running from WMd thru SEPA thru the tri state with a significant cutoff north of NYC and south of PHL. I agree with what you're saying, good analysis as always. I think though that given the origins of this storm that it should have a good amount of juice. There looks to be a great overrunning zone as well, into a strong high. I definitely don't expect a PDII or anything like that, but there could be a zone that has 12"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Hour 96 heavy snow, it's not going to be drier than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 This looks a lot like the euro just warmer for dca-baltimore….tight gradient north of hpn. nyc-phl jackpot Jetspens thoughts are pretty much rolled up into one on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Trying to phase in at H5 hour 96 instead of shearing it out, it's enhancing the precip shield!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 GFS so consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 sorry guys jump the gun….this is a huge hit for the metro area…similar to euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Heavy snow hour 99, what a hit, unless you're more than 50 miles north of NYC this is going to be an awesome run for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 So much consistency from the GFS with this storm scares me. Its like the first time this season i see run fom run showing a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Wow. 99 heavy snow continues. This is some run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Mega hit, heavy snow right into Monday night. Reminds me of the 00z GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 STILL Heavy snow at 102. TOSS THE WEENIES! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 03z tuesday still heavy snow in the area jeez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Huge hit, QPF already >1" for >90% of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I love the way the GFS is handling this system. Something HAS to be said here for its consistency to this point. Obv little fluctuations one way or the other, but wow im quite impressed with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 What's going on, a phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 This will extend well into Tuesday morning, what a run, all courtesy of the much improved H5. The PV attempts to phase in with the southern vort at exactly the right time and instead of shearing it out, boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 hr 108 06z tuesday moving out…this is the best run yet for the metro area and amazing how lock in the gfs has been for the last 3 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 SV is 12-15" for most of the area and surrounded by a large swath of 10"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I love the way the GFS is handling this system. Something HAS to be said here for its consistency to this point. Obv little fluctuations one way or the other, but wow im quite impressed with it. Its amazing. When the gfs is good its really good but when its bad its completely and utterly hopeless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 What's going on, a phase? Not quite, but close. A powerful vort swings south from MN and tries to interact with the southern vort as it hits the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 So it snows from hour 72 to 108? Back to a 36 hour event, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 jetspan and yanks are def going to be correct on how there will be a tight gradient in snowfall north of where the best lift is………usually is the case when we have the pv around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 This will extend well into Tuesday morning, what a run, all courtesy of the much improved H5. The PV attempts to phase in with the southern vort at exactly the right time and instead of shearing it out, boom. Wow, this was not expected from me. I don't know if I buy this but this is a development that will certainly HAVE to be monitored in future runs and will be the difference between 18-24 hours and 24 plus hours. If the overrunning hits us and THEN the vort attempts a phase in afterwards like the GFS is showing than we could see some LP enhanced bands and coastal like features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Well Im right in between the Phil-NYC corridor so not complaining but hopefully this works out so everyone in the viewing area can get in on the good stuff. there are plenty of storms I'm on the either on the Southern or northern fringe and miss the real good stuff. I'm not going to dive full-on into this until tomorrow at the earliest. The PV can still relax some in future runs and allow a shift north. That's what the NE forum is banking on, anyway. I think still that mixing is a much bigger concern than suppression, unless you're way north of the city, like I-84 north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Not quite, but close. A powerful vort swings south from MN and tries to interact with the southern vort as it hits the area. Hmmm… I wonder with the system nearing the sample grid, its picking up onto something. At the very least, that scenario the 18z just depicted needs to be watched for in future runs. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Not quite, but close. A powerful vort swings south from MN and tries to interact with the southern vort as it hits the area. The GFS show this yesterday too. An even bigger piece of PV. It's been kinda off and on from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The GFS show this yesterday too. An even bigger piece of PV. It's been kinda off and on from run to run. We are back to the 12z run from yesterday with temps. Monday it's snow heavy and in the teens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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