96blizz Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Some trolling for us by HPC ouch. doesn't match mt. holly's briefing at all. here we go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 NYC, middle of March. Sunspots, I guess. Great picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doosh Magoosh Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Some trolling for us by HPC Is blue snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 27, 2014 Author Share Posted February 27, 2014 Hmmm HPC likes the southern guidance. PV is on roids. this looks to 100 % snow from Central NJ north - Upton forecasting periods of snow no snow accumulation Monday with temps in the 20's is insanity at its worst especially after they are mentioning the possibility of over 8 inches of snow . now we know why people get confused Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Is blue snow?This a QPF chart which shows accumulated liquid. .75 inches with 10:1 ratios yields roughly 7.5" of snow and if its colder the ratios go up and more snowfall you'll recieve.Example the 1/3 storm this year some got almost 15" with ratios of 20:1 and temps in the single digits with around .5-.6 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 For the EPS control run you can tack on about another 0.10-0.20" over what the numbers I posted for the mean except for the LHV which was the same. Snow maps show 6-8" for the I-80 corridor, 10"+ for central NJ and touching the south shore of LI. <6" LHV and nothing north of Boston. 6-10" for southern NJ and 6"+ for central and northern DE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 7 inches aint bad. my car can handel that no problem... i was worried we were getting like 2 feet or something No the QPF chart by HPC looks too dry compared to guidance today which argues for 10"+ around NYC and south shore of LI. Not everyone is going to be on the same page however. Prepare for upwards of 10-12" which is still a good bit. Bit of advice as well- try using proper english and asking educated and well thought out questions to avoid flaming. You first few posts were nothing short of ball busting material, oh P.S. weather channel blows chunks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Upton saying only light snow accumulations - but they say the qpf will be 1 inch ??? 460 FPUS51 KOKX 272017 ZFPOKX ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 317 PM EST THU FEB 27 2014 NYZ072-280930- NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)- 317 PM EST THU FEB 27 2014 SATURDAY NIGHT CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT. SUNDAY INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT. SUNDAY NIGHT PERIODS OF SNOW. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS AROUND 20. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT. MONDAY PERIODS OF SNOW. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT. MONDAY NIGHT PERIODS OF SNOW. COLD WITH LOWS 5 TO 10 ABOVE. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 5 BELOW. TUESDAY PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 10 BELOW IN THE MORNING. TUESDAY NIGHT Yeah Obviously playing it off VERY conservatively actually too conservatively for what has been shown today. On other hand the Radio is already on the hype train with storm calling it winter storm Titan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 While we wait for the 18z GFS 19 ensemble members showed at least 6" of snow at KLGA and 8 or 9 showed more than 10". A lot of the members had hits for the system at the end of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 27, 2014 Author Share Posted February 27, 2014 Yeah Obviously playing it off VERY conservatively actually too conservatively for what has been shown today. On other hand the Radio is already on the hype train with storm calling it winter storm Titan. I think their monday forecast was a typo or something how do you get little of no accumulaiton with temps in the low 20's with periods of snow forecasted ? I can see getting little or no accumulations with temps in the low 30's but not low 20's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 His Airport code in his profile is "POOP" LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 A snowstorm on March 2nd or 3rd is nothing new for some great winters...March 2nd 1996 had 4.6"...That broke the record for seasonal snowfall in NYC...March 2-3, 1994 had 5" of snow and sleet...March 3rd 1978 had 5"...1969 had a 2.8" event on the 3rd but eastern L.I. got nearly a foot and Port Jervis N.Y. got 31" from a snow band for the ages... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I imagine the NAM will end up showing some QPF bombs because it loves to show copious amounts of precip whenever there are tight gradients like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 A snowstorm on March 2nd or 3rd is nothing new for some great winters...March 2nd 1996 had 4.6"...That broke the record for seasonal snowfall in NYC...March 2-3, 1994 had 5" of snow and sleet...March 3rd 1978 had 5"...1969 had a 2.8" event on the 3rd but eastern L.I. got nearly a foot and Port Jervis N.Y. got 31" from a snow band for the ages... OMG Uncle 31 inches from a deform band while rest of area only saw 1 ft maximum??! am I understanding correctly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Any word on gfs?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Any word on gfs?? Just started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Any word on gfs?? Out to hr 51….early guess is its going to hold serve..pv position looks great again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 OMG Uncle 31 inches from a deform band while rest of area only saw 1 ft maximum??! am I understanding correctly? yea when it happened I couldn't believe it especially when Brooklyn got shafted between heavy bands...The local weather almanac at the time said there was a "super imposed jet stream over that area"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 hr 63 surface and 850's south of ttn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 His Airport code in his profile is "POOP" LOL His Airport code in his profile is "POOP" LOL Obviously someone just trying to get a rise out of poople...err people here Anyway, here are some of my thoughts on this system. 1.There is no room IMO for the amplification that the Euro was showing yesterday, my main concern is and will be suppression/and dry air eating on the northern side of the precip shield. 2. Be careful assuming that Hp to the north means higher ratios, that is a SFC high and will only aide in keeping the surface colder 3. That PV means business and that confluence to the north is nothing to laugh at, this is also why I expect a solution most consistent with where the models seem to be today. Also, i'd be very cautious accepting such long durations/and waves towards the end, the PV will likely shear this out pretty quickly and I think we are left with an 18-24 hour event and even that may be pushing it in the end. 4. I can't say i'm entirely thrilled at the setup, yes there is a massive storm crashing into the west coast but what I think we are left with by the time it gets here is a shearing out system that will provide us with a significant overrunning event and probably not too much more than that. 5. Im reluctant(very much so) to start throwing numbers around but if I were to guess on where we were with this system id place the heaviest (6-12) running from WMd thru SEPA thru the tri state with a significant cutoff north of NYC and south of PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Light snow Sunday morning on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Obviously someone just trying to get a rise out of poople...err people here Anyway, here are some of my thoughts on this system. 1.There is no room IMO for the amplification that the Euro was showing yesterday, my main concern is and will be suppression/and dry air eating on the northern side of the precip shield. 2. Be careful assuming that Hp to the north means higher ratios, that is a SFC high and will only aide in keeping the surface colder 3. That PV means business and that confluence to the north is nothing to laugh at, this is also why I expect a solution most consistent with where the models seem to be today. Also, i'd be very cautious accepting such long durations/and waves towards the end, the PV will likely shear this out pretty quickly and I think we are left with an 18-24 hour event and even that may be pushing it in the end. 4. I can't say i'm entirely thrilled at the setup, yes there is a massive storm crashing into the west coast but what I think we are left with by the time it gets here is a shearing out system that will provide us with a significant overrunning event and probably not too much more than that. 5. Im reluctant(very much so) to start throwing numbers around but if I were to guess on where we were with this system id place the heaviest (6-12) running from WMd thru SEPA thru the tri state with a significant cutoff north of NYC and south of PHL. I agree with all your points but I'm encouraged by the modeling generally becoming better organized with the southern vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 the pv is really strong this run…this will def come in drier then 12z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Moderate snow knocking on the door Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I agree with all your points but I'm encouraged by the modeling generally becoming better organized with the southern vort. Yes, perhaps I should have worded it differently. I don't want to make it seem like I'm saying that it's just going to dissipate. I guess my point there is that I would not expect this to turn into a coastal like situation. I'm still on the fence about going for the banding associated with a stronger LP system I guess would be what I'm saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 hr 84 steady snow moving in 540 to phl, surface south of dca, 850's around baltimore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 the pv is really strong this run…this will def come in drier then 12z... And this is my main worry, double edged sword with that PV. It will keep this further south and colder but it is going to do a number on the precip shield IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Hour 87 light snow moving up to Boston, moderate snow over the area. To me so far it looks like it will be a really nice hit, especially from NYC south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 hr 90 mod snow from mason dixon line north….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 And this is my main worry, double edged sword with that PV. It will keep this further south and colder but it is going to do a number on the precip shield IMO. Can it have a happy medium ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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