Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Here we go with the bs pbp all snow says great hit yanks says heave stuff off shore can't make this stuff up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 If anything i think the mean is colder then the op…... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Starting to already shove this southeast hour 108 and by hour 114 or 00z Monday night the heavy stuff is offshore. The mean for NYC is going to about 0.6-0.7", perhaps a tenth or two wetter than the 00z mean. I think given the origin of the system there will be a lot of liquid with it. I don't buy solutions that are very dry. I could see 1.50"+ liquid in a swath in the best overrunning area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Here we go with the bs pbp all snow says great hit yanks says heave stuff off shore can't make this stuff up He means it as it has gone thru the area….they match the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 We'll wait for the individual members to come out after 4:00. Overall it was good for our area and probably a tad wetter than the 00z mean. Not worried about QPF on an ensemble mean at day 3-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Here we go with the bs pbp all snow says great hit yanks says heave stuff off shore can't make this stuff up Not for nothing but him and i spend money for this info, and for the last 24 hrs the pbp has been great…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I think given the origin of the system there will be a lot of liquid with it. I don't buy solutions that are very dry. I could see 1.50"+ liquid in a swath in the best overrunning area. Agreed, I believe we'll see some NAM runs giving the area 30". It's that kind of storm where the high res will probably over due it a bit but they will have the advantage of picking up on where the heaviest banding will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Not for nothing but him and i spend money for this info, and for the last 24 hrs the pbp has been great….i personally like your play by plays I mis read yanks statement my apologies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 114 is 06z Tuesday correct? Most of the precip would be long gone on all the models by then anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Not for nothing but him and i spend money for this info, and for the last 24 hrs the pbp has been great…. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 IDK man, days and days of endless heavy snow, if I were you I would run to the grocery store now and stock up. Could be snowed in for weeks. get that shovel ready homie! What a post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 back to information on the storm. latest briefing from NWS. def has the strip of heaviest precip much further N and W than the Euro... http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 We definitely need storm mode so JM could mod and get rid of the nonsense. Perhaps a part 2 of this thread with stronger moderation would be appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mwien Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Based on current data, when will the worst of the storm be for NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 18z NAM starting to get into better range now, spitting out about 0.10"+ for Sunday night for the area. 0.25"+ for most of PA. 0.50"+ for Pittsburgh and points west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Based on the 12Z EUROWx snowfall maps, it has 12"+ of snow from HPN to TTN and 15"+ from PHL into MDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Based on current data, when will the worst of the storm be for NYC? Between the hours of midnight and 12AM on Sunday through Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 18z NAM starting to get into better range now, spitting out about 0.10"+ for Sunday night for the area. 0.25"+ for most of PA. 0.50"+ for Pittsburgh and points west. It has cold air at the surface which sounds good based on the north wind direction. There would likely be a period of sleet/ZR to start before snow in this scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It has cold air at the surface which sounds good based on the north wind direction. There would likely be a period of sleet/ZR to start before snow in this scenario. I'm ignoring the NAM's specific temperature profiles until Saturday, it's still too far out of range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Based on current data, when will the worst of the storm be for NYC? Banter: correct way to ask a question on americanwx.com for your first post Looks like it will be mainly a very early monday to some models lingering it into tuesday from slower ens. Members. Accumulation around NYC from what ive seen is around 10"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 NYC, middle of March. Sunspots, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 18z NAM starting to get into better range now, spitting out about 0.10"+ for Sunday night for the area. 0.25"+ for most of PA. 0.50"+ for Pittsburgh and points west. 0Z surface sunk south from North Jersey/NY border to Trenton/Staten Island from 12Z to 18Z for 3/3 0Z, in other words, a significant move south. Forget where the line is given the range it's at, but is trend S from previous run to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Banter: correct way to ask a question on americanwx.com for your first post Looks like it will be mainly a very early monday to some models lingering it into tuesday from slower ens. Members. Accumulation around NYC from what ive seen is around 10"+ One could argue that will be the "best" part of the storm, not the "worst". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 27, 2014 Author Share Posted February 27, 2014 Upton saying only light snow accumulations - but they say the qpf will be 1 inch ??? 460 FPUS51 KOKX 272017 ZFPOKX ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 317 PM EST THU FEB 27 2014 NYZ072-280930- NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)- 317 PM EST THU FEB 27 2014 SATURDAY NIGHT CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT. SUNDAY INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT. SUNDAY NIGHT PERIODS OF SNOW. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS AROUND 20. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT. MONDAY PERIODS OF SNOW. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT. MONDAY NIGHT PERIODS OF SNOW. COLD WITH LOWS 5 TO 10 ABOVE. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 5 BELOW. TUESDAY PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 10 BELOW IN THE MORNING. TUESDAY NIGHT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Something I've noticed the past couple of days with this upcoming storm, are the features on the maps have been trending stronger. Not only has the high to the north been strengthening / pressing further south, but the southern vort has been getting more consolidated as each run goes by. Can't wait till this system gets on shore, and is fully sampled. Don't be surprised if you see an uptick of qpf in future runs. That working in tandem with the1048mb high north of us i.e. higher ratios- mind you if this takes a favorable track, would cause higher snow totals than expected. By no means a forecast, but something that needs to be watched over the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 NYC, middle of March. Sunspots, I guess. wow great pic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Some trolling for us by HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Upton saying only light snow accumulations - but they say the qpf will be 1 inch ??? 460 FPUS51 KOKX 272017 ZFPOKX ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 317 PM EST THU FEB 27 2014 NYZ072-280930- NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)- 317 PM EST THU FEB 27 2014 SATURDAY NIGHT CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT. SUNDAY INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT. SUNDAY NIGHT PERIODS OF SNOW. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS AROUND 20. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT. MONDAY PERIODS OF SNOW. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT. MONDAY NIGHT PERIODS OF SNOW. COLD WITH LOWS 5 TO 10 ABOVE. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 5 BELOW. TUESDAY PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 10 BELOW IN THE MORNING. TUESDAY NIGHT Just being cautious/conservative in their official NWS forecast as this potential snowfall is three days out. They talk about the 8" of snowfall in their Hazardous Weather Outlook if the favored models verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Updated 3:54pm Upton HWO UPDATED TO INCLUDE 8 INCH OR MORE POTENTIAL.THE POSITION OF THE FRONT WOULD BRING IN N TO NE WINDS THRU THEEVENT...FEEDING THE COLD AIR. A BLEND OF THE PURE GFS AND ECMWFMODEL DATA GIVES TEENS TO LOWER 20S FOR HIGHS MON...AND TEMPS FROMZERO INTO THE LWR TEENS MON NGT. THIS DATA WAS ACCEPTED FOR THE FCSTWITH THE EXPECTATION THAT GUIDANCE LIKELY INFLUENCED BY CLIMO.ANY DEVIATION TO THIS TRACK COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANTLY LESS PCPN IFTHE CONVERGENCE ZONE SETS UP S...OR TO MORE RAIN AND/OR ICY MIX IFIT SETS UP FURTHER N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Hmmm HPC likes the southern guidance. PV is on roids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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