Rjay Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Went back and found the infamous HPC message... INITIALIZATION ERRORS IN NUMEROUS DIAGNOSTIC QUANTITIES...INCLUDING HEIGHT/VORTICITY FIELDS/RH...ARE EVIDENT IN BOTH THE 12Z NAM/GFS WITH SMALL BUT LIKELY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA ALONG WITH SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH THESE AREAS ALSO NOT PARTICULARLY RESOLVED OR PREDICTED WELL BY THE 00Z ECMWF. THUS...THE SPECIFIC PREDICTIONS BY ALL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN QUESTION...WITH THE RECOMMENDATION TO FOLLOW CONTINUITY...WITH THE FINAL OUTCOME MOST BELIEVED TO LIE BETWEEN THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. Yea but they flat out tossed the nam and gfs runs before that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I'm hoping it doesn't melt with the sewers and tunnels being all warm and whatnot in March We all know the sun will turn from being a relative cinder yesterday when snow stuck to roads in Midtown in the late morning, to a twelve trillion degree blast furnace on Monday, and it will turn the Earth into a smoldering magma pit. The second the calendar makes it to March 1st, it's over for snow accumulations. Seriously, chill out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Im excited the crazy solutions the NAM will show starting tomorrow with this storm. Why would it show crazy solutions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 12z NAVGEM is 1"+ from I-78 south and 0.50"-1.00" from north to south for the rest of NJ, NYC, LI and the far southern LHV and southern New England shores. Way less north of HPN. Boston is maybe ~0.15". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Its great when the euro caves to the gfs..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Yea but they flat out tossed the nam and gfs runs before that That was from the 12z runs that day. The NAM was still OTS and the GFS came way west, for the first time. You can go back and look for yourself. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/5724-nycphl-dec-26-27-potential-part-5/page-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 12z NAVGEM is 1"+ from I-78 south and 0.50"-1.00" from north to south for the rest of NJ, NYC, LI and the far southern LHV and southern New England shores. Way less north of HPN. Boston is maybe ~0.15". I think DC may end up with more snow than Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I think DC may end up with more snow than Boston If you ignore the window washing and draw a line across the mean I believe it would jackpot the I-80 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 That was from the 12z runs that day. The NAM was still OTS and the GFS came way west, for the first time. You can go back and look for yourself. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/5724-nycphl-dec-26-27-potential-part-5/page-8 Ooooo I thought this was the following day when the 6z gfs still had a hit and the 0z euro was ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The "trend" of 12z is further south and colder. I think the 12z Euro run takes the warm threat off the table for serious consideration in the metro area. Systems this week have been further south than 5-7 day modeling had been showing. I think full suppression is unlikely for NYC, but the Northern burbs being fringed by the north of the precip field is a viable concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I think DC may end up with more snow than Boston Still way too early to say that. Hopefully the PV doesn't relax in future runs, we really need it to push down on the pattern. We have a little wiggle room now which I like, but it's hard for me to see no shift north later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 One thing's for sure, this is going to be one hugely wet storm for California, this is really a Nino like storm and pattern in general. Good for them, they need the rain. Makes me think there will be tons of liquid equivalent this way as well once the Gulf also gets tapped. The QPFs on models may go up as time goes on. One thing I noticed-the low is expected to enter CA down by maybe Santa Maria. That means the storm will exit the East around Charleston, SC-Henry M says the lows have to exit at the same US latitude as they come in, so I guess we're screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 HA, the 15z SREF's trended warmer and less suppressed again, even flips Boston to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 One thing's for sure, this is going to be one hugely wet storm for California, this is really a Nino like storm and pattern in general. Good for them, they need the rain. Makes me think there will be tons of liquid equivalent this way as well once the Gulf also gets tapped. The QPFs on models may go up as time goes on. One thing I noticed-the low is expected to enter CA down by maybe Santa Maria. That means the storm will exit the East around Charleston, SC-Henry M says the lows have to exit at the same US latitude as they come in, so I guess we're screwed. Ha I thought of that myself. And I agree with the models trending wetter as we get closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 One thing I noticed-the low is expected to enter CA down by maybe Santa Maria. That means the storm will exit the East around Charleston, SC-Henry M says the lows have to exit at the same US latitude as they come in, so I guess we're screwed. Off comes the Big Daddy hat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 HA, the 15z SREF's trended warmer and less suppressed again, even flips Boston to rain. Good lord. Model mayhem although I woudl think they are a little out of range right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 HA, the 15z SREF's trended warmer and less suppressed again, even flips Boston to rain. Pretty far out for them right? Interesting that the NAM and SREF are warmer at the very far end of their range. I tell you, it sounds corny and it's not science, but this winter I've tried (at this range) to take the ((GFS + Euro) / 2) and it's worked pretty darn well... (except maybe for the Feb 13th Miller A that the Euro dominated)... That even worked for yesterday's light snow, where the Euro had 3-6" at one point and the GFS had nothing around this range. C-2" for most of NJ... Once you get to tomorrow's 0z suite, I abandon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Ha I thought of that myself. And I agree with the models trending wetter as we get closer The SOI really went into the tank over the last few weeks. http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I'm just reporting what the SREF's are showing, yes they are at the far end of their range. Just pointing out that a suppressed solution isn't locked in yet. The Euro ensembles are coming out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I'm just reporting what the SREF's are showing, yes they are at the far end of their range. Just pointing out that a suppressed solution isn't locked in yet. The Euro ensembles are coming out now. The Euro ensemble mean hasn't really disagreed with the OP in a while so I expect a similar outcome...maybe a shade south. We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The Euro ensemble hasn't really disagreed with the OP in a while so I expect a similar outcome...maybe a shade south. We'll see The 00z ensembles were generally drier than the 00z ECWMF by quite a large margin, you could have cut QPF totals in half. Hopefully that's not the case now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It's pretty amazing when you consider how this threat has evolved over the past 7-10 days. It's gone from a bowling ball type low, to a miller A, to a miller A hybrid, to a cutter that redevelops into a miller B with good over running, to good over running with a strong back end wave, to good over running and now to great over running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The 00z ensembles were generally drier than the 00z ECWMF by quite a large margin, you could have cut QPF totals in half. Hopefully that's not the case now. I was speaking strictly track-wise. Less qpf on an ensemble mean is pretty much a given at this range but it was disconcerning to see them that much drier than the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I'm just reporting what the SREF's are showing, yes they are at the far end of their range. Just pointing out that a suppressed solution isn't locked in yet. The Euro ensembles are coming out now. They are out to lunch thermally for sure because the precip axis looks very similar to the other models, they seem to be placing features right but are too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Through hour 90 the ensemble mean looks slightly less suppressive than the Euro OP. 850mb freezing line is north of ACY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 All in all this is going to probably look similar to the OP. Steadier snows moving in hour 96. Surface freezing line slicing through Toms River and southeast of Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Hour 102 some love for Boston, but wow, wouldn't want to be north of the MA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 euro ens are beautiful…huge hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Starting to already shove this southeast hour 108 and by hour 114 or 00z Tuesday the heavy stuff is offshore. The mean for NYC is going to be about 0.6-0.7", perhaps a tenth or two wetter than the 00z mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 A few panels still showing some activity on Tuesday morning however it's probably just a few slower members skewing the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.