Juliancolton Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 What a shift for northern areas. Jackpot to major fringe job in one run. The Euro seems even drier than the GFS up here, having gone from the northernmost solution to the southernmost. Quite a shame for anybody north of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Trend on the guidance since overnight is for a stronger PV over SE Canada. Not worried about suppression though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 What a shift for northern areas. Jackpot to major fringe job in one run. The Euro seems even drier than the GFS up here, having gone from the northernmost solution to the southernmost. Quite a shame for anybody north of NYC. No worries....yet, the end of the week system is still on majority of the models in some way shape or form, however being 8+days out thats as far as i will go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Remember models often over correct on a solution so it could shift further north next run given such a significant southward shift that we've just seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooter13 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I remember the boxing day storm having similar consistency from like 3 days out or so. Memory is fuzzy, but i believe that was the case. I'm pretty sure it was just the opposite. Models changed on Christmas Day and people mainly ignored the weather which led to the whole Bloomberg plowing disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Joy in these parts. 72hrs+ out and the King caves to the GFS. just plain wow but thats the way this winter has gone... a beautiful beautiful sight! A few more runs to go. Hope the suppression trend ends. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The interesting questions will now be : 1.) does this shift upwards into HECS cat. with the NAM coming into play tomorrow? 2.) does the shift to the south continue as the PV continues to be stronger than intially progged? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Move the cold in faster and strengthen the shortwave... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Cue the "who wants to be the bullseye 4 days out"-mongers. What a start to March this storm would be, then bone chilling Arctic cold behind. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 If the PV wasn't so suppressive this would have dragged on well into Tuesday morning. It has a lot of leftover moisture to work with but everything it just a little far south and the low guts punted offshore fairly quickly once it reaches the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Cue the "who wants to be the bullseye 4 days out"-mongers. What a start to March this storm would be, then bone chilling Arctic cold behind. Wow. I think the bulls eye is now south of us so a last minute north bump would be ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 You can see the PV suppressing the flow compared to the run yesterday. So we have some wiggle room now if this trends a little further north under 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I remember the boxing day storm having similar consistency from like 3 days out or so. Memory is fuzzy, but i believe that was the case. The boxing day storm which is not even close to this set up was consistently shown on the models and then was lost ots in the medium range only to be brought back 36-48 hrs before the storm. The 18z gfs showed it first. Then the other models got on board and then finally the Euro. The day that it got brought back was my favorite day ever on this board...even though I only lurked at that point and hadn't signed up yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I'm pretty sure it was just the opposite. Models changed on Christmas Day and people mainly ignored the weather which led to the whole Bloomberg plowing disaster. Hmm Like i said, my memory is fuzzy. You are prolly right. I do believe one of the storms from that season was modeled pretty consistently from 3 days out. I cant remember which one though. If this verifies, though, it will pretty remarkable to see such consistency so far out. From the GFS no less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dieselbug Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Nice to hear the Euro is further south...does it appear to show anything frozen for lower DE? Thanks for the pbp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The boxing day storm which is not even close to this set up was consistently shown on the models and then was lost ots in the medium range only to be brought back 36-48 hrs before the storm. The 18z gfs showed it first. Then the other models got on board and then finally the Euro. The day that it got brought back was my favorite day ever on this board. The 18z gfs brought it back from the dead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CSheridan12 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 And now we sit and wait for the EURO to hopefully trend more towards the GFS so we can all applaud the GFS today! I suspect it won't budge very much. We'll have to see. At this point the gfs has been so consistent I'm willing to lean towards its solution more All applaud the GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Nice to hear the Euro is further south...does it appear to show anything frozen for lower DE? Thanks for the pbp. verbatim, southern DE gets about 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The 18z gfs brought it back from the dead I'll never forget HPC tossing the gfs at 18z and then tossing the nam and gfs at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Ha, the 12z JMA looks like yesterdays 12z ECMWF that was really warm and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I'll never forget HPC tossing the gfs at 18z and then tossing the nam and gfs at 0z It was the revenge storm for March 2001, awesome positive bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 All applaud the GFS! I'll applaud Monday night when I have a foot of snow on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I'll never forget HPC tossing the gfs at 18z and then tossing the nam and gfs at 0zYes, the hpc then going no way it's correct and the next run every model comes in huge.Edit: something about incorrect initializations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 This was the hour 60 simulated radar forecast for the Boxing Day event, just to show you how far things were off at day 2.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I'll never forget HPC tossing the gfs at 18z and then tossing the nam and gfs at 0z That is what made the next morning run so good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Wow, nobody posting EURO snow maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I think the bulls eye is now south of us so a last minute north bump would be ok I'll certainly take the foot of snow it seems to show for most of the area. I still don't think suppression is a major concern, I think the concern for that is north of I-90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Wow, nobody posting EURO snow maps? I don't get the obsession over the snow maps. Who cares? The algorithm for the Weeniebell maps include sleet and freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Went back and found the infamous HPC message... INITIALIZATION ERRORS IN NUMEROUS DIAGNOSTICQUANTITIES...INCLUDING HEIGHT/VORTICITY FIELDS/RH...ARE EVIDENT INBOTH THE 12Z NAM/GFS WITH SMALL BUT LIKELY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVETROUGHS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA ALONG WITHSASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH THESE AREAS ALSO NOT PARTICULARLYRESOLVED OR PREDICTED WELL BY THE 00Z ECMWF. THUS...THE SPECIFICPREDICTIONS BY ALL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN QUESTION...WITHTHE RECOMMENDATION TO FOLLOW CONTINUITY...WITH THE FINAL OUTCOMEMOST BELIEVED TO LIE BETWEEN THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Im excited to see the crazy solutions the NAM will show starting tomorrow with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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