IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 He is in the Albany CWA lol.. smh Oh, well southern portions of that CWA should still do well according to the Euro/GFS blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Are you saying GGEM gives us no snow at all? Is this a joke? From what I can tell it is plenty cold but further south then gfs. Hits dca reall well, those worried about being in the bullseye 3 days out will like this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Ggem is a two wave idea. First is weak and warm and second is cold but further south 2-4 NYC north 4-8 central nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYStorm Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It's not a misconception, it's happened this year and in years past numerous times. If the shortwave trend more amplified or stronger then you can bet things can adjust north somewhat, but I doubt it'll be dramatic the way the pattern is forecast to evolve. It still doesn't mean it's gonna happen with every single storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Ggem is a two wave idea. First is weak and warm and second is cold but further south 2-4 NYC north 4-8 central nj Is that snow from the 1st or 2nd wave? How much does DCA get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Is that snow from the 1st or 2nd wave? How much does DCA get? 2nd wave. And idk how much they get, I got the info thru weathergun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Is that snow from the 1st or 2nd wave? How much does DCA get? I read 6-8 in their sub forum, not sure if correct tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I would be shocked in the euro remained north at 12z. Pretty much all the guidance is south and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I would be shocked in the euro remained north at 12z. Pretty much all the guidance is south and cold. It's probably past the point where the Euro makes huge shifts. I could see a tick colder/south though, it did the same at 0z. I'm liking the trend with the PV, hope that keeps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I would be shocked in the euro remained north at 12z. Pretty much all the guidance is south and cold. The way these models have been lately- wouldn't shock me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It's probably past the point where the Euro makes huge shifts. I could see a tick colder/south though, it did the same at 0z. I'm liking the trend with the PV, hope that keeps up. 3-4 days out is past the point for major shifts for the Euro? I'd agree if this was tomorrow night's 0z run or Saturday's 12z run but I think the Euro can still shift plenty at this stage of the game. It has plenty of times at this range just this winter alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The recent runs of the European definitely have trended away from the amplified, "phased" solution. The key is for the PV to remain in a good position and to see the two shortwaves staying seperate. The trends for the southern vort being more consolidated on the GFS is very encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 How much melting due to march subsurface magma issues? Recent seismic activity definitely argues for all snow melting on contact: http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/LCSN/recenteqs/ I recommend asbestos footwear for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Frontogenesis will be pretty strong with this event, and we have a beautiful 150+ knot jet streak just north of Maine, which places us in the right-entrance region. The jet streak is uniform and not too narrow, so lift will be enhanced in a wide area, as opposed to a supreme amount of lift being concentrated in a small area, thus the more uniform snowfall amounts. That being said, with enhanced frontogenesis, precipitation amounts could still go up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 When is the next euro run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 When is the next euro run? 1pm and 1am, runs twice a day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 When is the next euro run? now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 EURO slightly better with the PV so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNAO Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 EURO slightly better with the PV so far I feel like you said that for the past couple runs of the EURO it spat out worse solutions each time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 EURO slightly better with the PV so far Yeah, definitely a bit stronger and further south, as much as I hate to say that. The differences are rather prominent at hour 30 vs 00z hour 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I feel like you said that for the past couple runs of the EURO it spat out worse solutions each time. Last night's euro was not bad..just warm aloft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 12z GEFS mean was 0.75"+ for northern areas and 1.00"+ for southern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 At hour 60 the 850mb freezing line extends from Richmond VA eastward through DC and off the southern DE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 At hour 66 you can really see the PV flexing its muscles as it begins to rotate southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The PV over Western Canada is going to try and bridge with the ridging south of Alaska, not sure if that's something new or not. Edit: Just went back and looked, did the same thing at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I feel like you said that for the past couple runs of the EURO it spat out worse solutions each time. Well, I haven't...I only compare to the previous runs....You can already tell the HP is building in better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Pv is stronger and a bit south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 This should be coming south, heights are beginning to lower along the coast. Precip out in western PA looks aligned for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Way colder at hr 84. Surface by ttn and 850 phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Height lines are probably 50 to 75 miles further south through Sunday versus their 00z positioning for the same time, with the biggest differences over Quebec and the Hudson Bay. I don't expect a major change but there will almost certainly be a southward adjustment with the whole system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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