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March 2- 4 Snowstorm Potential


NEG NAO

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Snowing moderately still well after dark on Monday night for almost all areas. Surface is a little warm for Northern Central NJ and Eastern LI but 850's look cold. Ice for Philly area and southern PA extending eastward towards Sandy Hook. GSP from about exit 117 south looks like plain rain.

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This looks like a monstrous QPF producer and an ultra long duration event (days). Snow begins Sunday @ 7am and precip does not end until late Tuesday night. That duration is increadible (of course with lulls in between, but never completely shuts off). 

 

Verbatim the 6z GFS was 4-8" of snow, then sleet/ice, then eventually rain with the main low, but still would be a formidable winter storm even as currently depicted. And if it were to trend colder....look out.

ok Zel - I changed the title of this thread to March 2 - 4 ............

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long duration slop. we'd be lucky to get more than 2" on the ground at any time

Currently on the GFS it is not the greatest setup for copious accumulating snows. We'd need it to trend further south and colder to have some better/ snowier solution for the entire area. Saying PDII redux is not very smart that was walls of heavy snow and widespread 20"+ amounts with which no model currently shows

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I'd love to see the 12z GFS verify just from the magnitude of the duration. Quite honestly if the subsidence to the north was just a bit stronger this would have jackpotted the Mid-Atlantic. Colder probably equals less precip.

 

Ask the New England folks, Boston is barely 0.50" this run.

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I'd love to see the 12z GFS verify just from the magnitude of the duration. Quite honestly if the subsidence to the north was just a bit stronger this would have jackpotted the Mid-Atlantic. Colder probably equals less precip.

 

Ask the New England folks, Boston is barely 0.50" this run.

that's a concern too, that it gets shunted south and we get zilch b/c the PV is too far south.

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Early signs are:

 

Balt South: Some ice/sleet inland, mostly rain

Balt - Phl: Some snow (1-3), some sleet/ice, some rain

Phl-C NJ: Some snow (2-4/3-6), some ice/sleet, some rain

N NJ- S SNE: Snow (4-8+), some ice/sleet, maybe a little rain

C SNE North: Snow (more south, less north)

 

Course this will change depending on strength of Low vs. High

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long duration slop. we'd be lucky to get more than 2" on the ground at any time

yes thats what usually happens in March when you have boarderline temps - would be a different story though if the temps trend a few degrees colder which is still possible

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