IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Hour 150 secondary now off the VA coast, snow filling back in for northern sections. Ice for Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 As the hours go on the main bands of precipitation continue to get forced further and further south.Can you explain how that effects C NJ away from the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 All areas are already well in excess of 1" QPF through hour 156 alone, except 0.75"+ for LHV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Can you explain how that effects nj away from the coast? For a period of time the bands of precip shift more to central and southern NJ but northern NJ never completely shuts off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Snowing moderately still well after dark on Monday night for almost all areas. Surface is a little warm for Northern Central NJ and Eastern LI but 850's look cold. Ice for Philly area and southern PA extending eastward towards Sandy Hook. GSP from about exit 117 south looks like plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Good improvements with the GFS over last night and early this morning. If this trends any colder, dare I say PD 2 redux? Rest of the 12z suite just got mighty interesting. If they trend colder too, then I'll start getting excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I would think that the Euro will handle this better than the GFS since its a southern stream storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 25, 2014 Author Share Posted February 25, 2014 This looks like a monstrous QPF producer and an ultra long duration event (days). Snow begins Sunday @ 7am and precip does not end until late Tuesday night. That duration is increadible (of course with lulls in between, but never completely shuts off). Verbatim the 6z GFS was 4-8" of snow, then sleet/ice, then eventually rain with the main low, but still would be a formidable winter storm even as currently depicted. And if it were to trend colder....look out. ok Zel - I changed the title of this thread to March 2 - 4 ............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 A lot of overrunning. The main low goes off the Del Marva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 System moves OTS by Monday night with light snow moving back in early Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 QPF is 0.75"+ from KSWF to High Point, NJ. Then 1"+ for all of NJ increasing as you move southward. Heaviest is 1.75" from the Philly area and points east in a narrow band but that area has a ton of mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 long duration slop. we'd be lucky to get more than 2" on the ground at any time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 long duration slop. we'd be lucky to get more than 2" on the ground at any time Yes on this run but this run came in much flatter and colder. I wouldn't be shocked to see it trend more colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 long duration slop. we'd be lucky to get more than 2" on the ground at any time who cares, better than rain. and depends on location. N and W of NYC could do quite well in this setup. and it's just one of many possible solutions, 5 days out, this will change to some extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 long duration slop. we'd be lucky to get more than 2" on the ground at any time Currently on the GFS it is not the greatest setup for copious accumulating snows. We'd need it to trend further south and colder to have some better/ snowier solution for the entire area. Saying PDII redux is not very smart that was walls of heavy snow and widespread 20"+ amounts with which no model currently shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 long duration slop. we'd be lucky to get more than 2" on the ground at any time Maybe for the immediate, immediate coastal plain but it's a high end warning criteria snowfall for the NW suburbs and a lot of ice for some people as well. And it's still a day 6+ event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 long duration slop. we'd be lucky to get more than 2" on the ground at any time Hah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I'd love to see the 12z GFS verify just from the magnitude of the duration. Quite honestly if the subsidence to the north was just a bit stronger this would have jackpotted the Mid-Atlantic. Colder probably equals less precip. Ask the New England folks, Boston is barely 0.50" this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Looks very 93-94 ish, the PV will be key in this setup as it could trend either way at this point. Very long duration and someone could really get a ton of snow. Hopefully it's not an icy scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I'd love to see the 12z GFS verify just from the magnitude of the duration. Quite honestly if the subsidence to the north was just a bit stronger this would have jackpotted the Mid-Atlantic. Colder probably equals less precip. Ask the New England folks, Boston is barely 0.50" this run. that's a concern too, that it gets shunted south and we get zilch b/c the PV is too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 A lot of overrunning. The main low goes off the Del Marva. If that track is accurate this will probably mainly snow from Central NJ on north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 If that track is accurate this will probably mainly snow from Central NJ on north. Depends on the 850 low. Could be a VD2007 repeat and give us mostly sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Ice storms in March are a rarity but we may have one on our hands early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Early signs are: Balt South: Some ice/sleet inland, mostly rain Balt - Phl: Some snow (1-3), some sleet/ice, some rain Phl-C NJ: Some snow (2-4/3-6), some ice/sleet, some rain N NJ- S SNE: Snow (4-8+), some ice/sleet, maybe a little rain C SNE North: Snow (more south, less north) Course this will change depending on strength of Low vs. High Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 25, 2014 Author Share Posted February 25, 2014 long duration slop. we'd be lucky to get more than 2" on the ground at any time yes thats what usually happens in March when you have boarderline temps - would be a different story though if the temps trend a few degrees colder which is still possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Ice storms in March are a rarity but we may have one on our hands early next week. Ice storms in early March are not uncommon. The first few days of March are like an extension of February, like if February had 30 or 31 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Ice storms in early March are not uncommon. The first few days of March are like an extension of February, like if February had 30 or 31 days.but climatologically speaking much different than early jan-mid feb when they are most common Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 who cares, better than rain. and depends on location. N and W of NYC could do quite well in this setup. and it's just one of many possible solutions, 5 days out, this will change to some extent. 06Z GFS run had 5" of snow before the flip to ZR up here at KSWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 yes thats what usually happens in March when you have boarderline temps - would be a different story though if the temps trend a few degrees colder which is still possible Disagree, the problem on the GFS is 850 temps, the surface stays pretty cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Navgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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