Weathergun Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 We kinda need the shortwave a little amplified, so we can see stronger thermal gradient, enhance snowfall rates during the day. As long the PV is strong over SE Canada and isn't too far too far north, most of us here will be probably be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It'll probably be another 6-10" storm if the gfs is correct. As Earthlight already indicated looking more in range of 10-15 inches - class MECS . Once the SLP is sampled tonight we should be golden if GFS holds serve tonight and just work out final details tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Even the really conservative SV maps have 10-12" from about KEWR to KHPN and a large swath of 8"+ blanketing the rest of this sub forum. This is without any banding that might occur with a slightly more organized low pressure system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAMSTORM22 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Thanks for the response...hoping everyone gets crushed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It'll probably be another 6-10" storm if the gfs is correct. More Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I keep seeing 6-10" and that run looked like more than that to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 We kinda need the shortwave a little amplified, so we can see stronger thermal gradient, enhance snowfall rates during the day. As long the PV is strong over SE Canada and isn't too far too far north, most of us here will be probably be fine. Agreed, too flat and it will get more easily sheared out on the backend. That PV is a double edged sword for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 We kinda need the shortwave a little amplified, so we can see stronger thermal gradient, enhance snowfall rates during the day. As long the PV is strong over SE Canada and isn't too far too far north, most of us here will be probably be fine. Agree! I know everyone north of NYC thinks it will trend north as been the case in the pass with swfe. The pv is going to tell the tale and only allow it to come so far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 More Gfs is a solid 1" of qpf so definitely 9-12". Temps 18-21 during the heaviest portion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I am seeing 1.2 inches of liquid . Between CNJ and I 80 right through NYC and Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I keep seeing 6-10" and that run looked like more than that to me... If the GFS verifies most areas should have no problem seeing 10"+. Thinking 12"+ will be common rather than the exception. As usual the higher elevations of NW NJ and the LHV should get in on some up sloping. Most of the high res modeling shows JP's for that region despite slightly less QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Not an encouraging run for those of us in the no-man's land of the mid-HV. 6-8" deal at best with that QPF, assuming decent ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 If the shortwave ends up more organized then probably 10"+ but it looks just a bit less going off of 10:1 ratios. If ratios are a little higher than it will be 10"+ as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Total QPF for everybody: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Not an encouraging run for those of us in the no-man's land of the mid-HV. 6-8" deal at best with that QPF, assuming decent ratios. I think you need to be almost into the Albany CWA before you have to worry about major issues. Sunday night might be a bit dry north of NYC but those areas do just fine on Monday and especially Monday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I like how the models have been showing a more consistent long duration moderate rate throughout the storm. Definitely a better outcome when compared to yesterday's 12Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Not an encouraging run for those of us in the no-man's land of the mid-HV. 6-8" deal at best with that QPF, assuming decent ratios. What's your snowpack up there? 30"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Not an encouraging run for those of us in the no-man's land of the mid-HV. 6-8" deal at best with that QPF, assuming decent ratios. you're complaining about 6-8? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Total QPF for everybody: gfs_apcpn_neus_20.png Usually BOS crushes NYC (climo wise) , a storm like this goes a long way to helping NY bridge the gap & we have had a couple of others this winter where we outperformed BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 you're complaining about 6-8? He's not complaining. He's just stating the gfs looks less for his area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I like how the models have been showing a more consistent long duration moderate rate throughout the storm. Definitely a better outcome when compared to yesterday's 12Z GFS Part of the reason for the shorter duration is that earlier the models were painting a snowier picture for Sunday morning. All I will say is that typically with SWFE events the moisture arrives sooner than modeled, so hopefully that happens here. Really think the NAM will have the best handle on timing once it gets into range due to its higher resolution. The smoothed out QPF fields on the globals can be deceiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 heck of a gradient on the GFS just south of Philly for snowfall totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 you're complaining about 6-8? It's human weenie nature to want the solution that dumps the most snow on your backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 heck of a gradient on the GFS just south of Philly for snowfall totals Yeah very difficult forecast for AC over to philly burbs and north of Baltimore/dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 heck of a gradient on the GFS just south of Philly for snowfall totals The stationary front ticks just far enough north to taint those areas. It's better though for us because the best lift will be just to the north of the low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 How much melting due to march subsurface magma issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Don't really like being in the jackpot 5 days out. Would rather have this be suppressed south on the GFS at this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Their is going to be some bright banding on the radar come Monday afternoon to the south of us, that's going to be sleet and melting snow. This isn't the kind of event where you're going to get 40dbz echo's over your house and 2-4" per hour snowfall rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 But the sun angle will kill all the snow, darn March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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