IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 This run of the GFS should be good, already cold enough by Sunday night, although not quite as cold as 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 GFS is much more organized and amplified with the shortwave trof when compared to its 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The GFS is a lot more optimistic about snow beginning on Sunday rather than overnight into Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 GFS has snow moving in Sunday morning. I wouldn't count on that...really very light precipitation (0.01") and those usually end up trending drier on the models when they have the elongated fronts like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Hr 90 light snow from Phl-north Surface from dca-acy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Snowing steadily by Monday morning all areas from the LHV southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I wouldn't count on that...really very light precipitation (0.01") and those usually end up trending drier on the models when they have the elongated fronts like that. I'm not counting on that. I am not expecting anything until late Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Really good lift over the area now at 96 hours (12z Mon) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Moderate snow hour 96, looking really good as far as Monday is concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 GFS is much more organized and amplified with the shortwave trof when compared to its 06z run. More amplifed than 0z too. PV looks a little further north. It will still be cold for us though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 As Earthlight mentioned, the southern stream vort is considerably more organized this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Hr 99 heavy snow from Phl-north Surface still south of dca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 As Earthlight mentioned, the southern stream vort is considerably more organized this run. We need the PV to press this as south as possible. An organized vort=the storm will push north as far as it can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Really just a perfect track with a well positioned shortwave and a good amount of moisture...you can count on significant snows north of the thermal gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 We need the PV to press this as south as possible. An organized vort=the storm will push north as far as it can. The surface low tracks from Tennessee to Ocean City MD...I would not be concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Snowing steadily right into Monday night. It's definitely focusing the heavier precip right over our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 If the GFS idea is correct mostly everyone in this sub forum will get 10-15"...the exception in this region being Southeast NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 We need the PV to press this as south as possible. An organized vort=the storm will push north as far as it can. I'll take the better organized vort, that will help to extend the storm out some as it moves away Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Just a crush job for everyone in this sub forum. Gfs really holding steady Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Pretty good overall consistency from gfs, 06z was def way too cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Ever since our little snafu yesterday the pbp, by Allsnow & yanks has been excellent. Very detailed, easy to follow. Well done, gents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 If the GFS idea is correct mostly everyone in this sub forum will get 10-15"...the exception in this region being Southeast NJ. yup this run (right or wrong) for the 7th time shows incredible consistency with itself...and is beautiful.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 GFS throwing back light snow well into Monday night, nice to see. Probably doesn't wrap up until just after midnight. QPF is 0.75"+ for most of the region. Thinking we'll need to wait for the NAM inside of 48 hours for a better shot at what totals might be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 GFS consistency has been superlative - with exception of 18z yesterday-. Consistently showing all snow and in and around 1 ft. If it plays out as progged we will close in on all time Snow mark for KNYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Well hopefully the GFS is correct.. its consistency has been good with this storm apart from that crappy 18z the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAMSTORM22 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Just a crush job for everyone in this sub forum. Gfs really holding steady Wheres the cutoff in coastal NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Ever since our little snafu yesterday the pbp, by Allsnow & yanks has been excellent. Very detailed, easy to follow. Well done, gents. I agree. Good pbp guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Wheres the cutoff in coastal NJ? Toms River flips to taint Monday afternoon. Probably sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It'll probably be another 6-10" storm if the gfs is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Wheres the cutoff in coastal NJ? South of ttn a sharp cutoff as southern nj deals with mixing issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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