Heisy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Remember, surface temps don't mean anything to ratios, you need good VVs and colder 500-700mb temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 We will see lots of jumps on the NAM. Waaaaaay out of its range still. You don't have to tell me that, however at 48 hours the NAM has a better setup than the EURO, its just a "FWIW".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Remember, surface temps don't mean anything to ratios, you need good VVs and colder 500-700mb temps. The ratios will not be spectacular due to a slightly warmer layer near 800-850 showing temps near -4 to -5C at times....12 to 1 is definitely possible but I don't know about 15 to 1 or better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 You don't have to tell me that, however at 48 hours the NAM has a better setup than the EURO, its just a "FWIW"....I know lol. The NE subforum is amazingly quiet for a threat of a foot crossing the 100 hr mark.You'd think they've had enough of winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Only seven 00z ECWMF ensemble members gave KLGA 10" or greater. 19 members had 2" or less. Places further inland were not that much better. The EPS control run was still a solid hit for the area, looks like the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 06z DGEX was not all that great and really suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 06z DGEX was not all that great and really suppressed Today should be fun to put it lightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Now I see what the problem was with the Euro ensembles, the mean only had 0.5"-0.6" QPF and even less for Central and Southern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Way out there still but the 09z SREF's are still warm on Sunday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Way out there still but the 09z SREF's are still warm on Sunday afternoon. They trended way colder, cold is still pressing at 87 hours, the PV is in better position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 They trended way colder, cold is still pressing at 87 hours, the PV is in better position. I didn't look at the previous run for comparison, I just know that at hour 87 the surface and 850mb freezing lines are still northwest of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I didn't look at the previous run for comparison, I just know that at hour 87 the surface and 850mb freezing lines are still northwest of the area. Yeah they are horrific with surface and mid level temps at the long range with the storm that hit the southeast us 2 weeks ago they were off 5-10c beyond 60 hours...the funny thing about the SREFs right now though is their precip axis matches up well at 87 hours with most other models but temps aren't even close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 1/22/12 now the #1 analog at 120 hours over the east. 3/24/90 is the #1 analog over the east at 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Only seven 00z ECWMF ensemble members gave KLGA 10" or greater. 19 members had 2" or less. Places further inland were not that much better. The EPS control run was still a solid hit for the area, looks like the OP. Are the 2" members suppressed/Warm or both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I know lol. The NE subforum is amazingly quiet for a threat of a foot crossing the 100 hr mark. You'd think they've had enough of winter! To be honest, in this setup it's probably bad for us if they start going crazy in the NE forum. There's likely going to be a fairly sharp gradient between where there's a large accumulation and just sleet/slop/rain. These WAA type storms are often like that. And it's always especially a nailbiter when you have to wait for cold air to come in as the storm starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 SREFs will continue to trend colder and colder with each run, don't worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Are the 2" members suppressed/Warm or both? Dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Becoming a little clearer that supression is much more of a concern than rain/warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Most of the guidance is south and colder for our area with the euro being the warmest. Dgex is a great hit but further south then most guidance. Hopefully we see the euro take another step towards the colder guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Becoming a little clearer that supression is much more of a concern than rain/warm. I have to disagree. I don't think suppression would be a worry here. Maybe north of I-90. These very often trend north at the end, so we would want some wiggle room between the rain/mix/snow line. The Feb 4th event was expected to be cold enough for almost all snow at one point, even up to 48 hours out, but then trended markedly warmer/north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 SREFs will continue to trend colder and colder with each run, don't worry. Yeah I don't even know why they are being look at. 84 hr Srefs are like the 384 hr gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Becoming a little clearer that supression is much more of a concern than rain/warm. A few days ago I thought the opposite but with all the current data I agree with your statement. This should only trend colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 06z DGEX was not all that great and really suppressed That looks pretty good for most in this sub forum. Do you not like how it's further south then most? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Becoming a little clearer that supression is much more of a concern than rain/warm. I sort of agree with this. If we don't get good moisture up here it won't matter what the temps are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Yeah I don't even know why they are being look at. 84 hr Srefs are like the 384 hr gfs agreed, that and the snow ratio talk leads me to think we're in a model lull lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 A few days ago I thought the opposite but with all the current data I agree with your statement. This should only trend colder. Once south of PHL/TTN I would nOt worry about surpession. I think your good from that standpoint....north of NYC has concerns IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Man the 06z gfs is cold that's all snow from Phl-north. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Its not really about trending...Its about what happens in SE Canada with the ULL, if it doesnt push SE enough it will be warm, if it does, cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Its not really about trending...Its about what happens in SE Canada with the ULL, if it doesnt push SE enough it will be warm, if it does, cold... The trends on the overnight models and 6Z was a better PV positioning in SE canada leading to better confluence and correlating to colder temps. We'll what the 12z suite brings today starting with the GFS which seems to be the most consistent with the track and temps combine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 That looks pretty good for most in this sub forum. Do you not like how it's further south then most? It's obviously still a warning criteria snowfall for the southern half of the forum, I just don't like 1) Being on the northern edge of a storm like this and 2) Seeing a normally over amped model showing a more suppressed solution. I wasn't really concerned until I looked at the 00z ECMWF ensemble mean and saw not how suppressed they were, not how warm they were, but how dry the were. 0.5"+ on a 24 hour plus event is not exactly encouraging for big snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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