Rjay Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 looks nice-- seeing around 10" for NYC metro through 120... Mod snow still at hr 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Quicker storm.....but this often happens on models. A 60-70 hour storm turns into a 24 hour storm and a 24 hour storm turns into a 12 hour storm.....it's expected.....but as long as it dumps some snow, it's fine Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 qpf output .75 gets to orh 1.00 mmu-nyc 1.25 monmouth and ocean county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Not for nothing but if you take away the 18z run from yesterday the gfs has been pretty darn consistent on a snowy solution from trenton north. as snowy as this season has been , we never really had the gfs consistently showing us the goods as it has with this storm so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It's the PV that helps to make this possible and what eventually punts it east at the end. The 12z GFS dug that PV energy much further south and allowed for a less progressive flow, still hoping that scenario somehow comes back, though the more progressive nature makes perfect sense this season. Still we're talking Sunday afternoon until really late Monday night, that's nothing to sneeze at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 it went toward the euro with a less sheared southern vort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 But the earlier run with the 72 hr storm was more drawn out and light. Yes it accumulates, but I'll take a thump of heavy pasting snow in a minute over the lighter variety but that's just me. That's where we differ, I would love to experience a really long duration snow event, regardless of duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 But the earlier run with the 72 hr storm was more drawn out and light. Yes it accumulates, but I'll take a thump of heavy pasting snow in a minute over the lighter variety but that's just me.And who could possibly complain about a 24 to 30 hour storm?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 And who could possibly complain about a 24 to 30 hour storm?? I don't think anyone is complaining at all, but the 12z GFS was just epic, like as if Snow88 had run it directly from his smart phone. Plus it would be a nightmare for the general non weather weenie public, and I would enjoy that immensely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Everyone should be happy. If this happens as depicted tonite NJ may reach all time records and NY will be very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 And who could possibly complain about a 24 to 30 hour SNOWstorm??FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 it went toward the euro with a less sheared southern vort Thats fine by me as long as thaty ULL in Canada does its part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 qpf output .75 gets to orh 1.00 mmu-nyc 1.25 monmouth and ocean county Any idea what temp profiles look like when the heavy thumping is taking place? Can we take advantage of any ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 NNE is under 0.50" this run and in spots way under. The 0.75"+ barely makes it north of Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 it went toward the euro with a less sheared southern vort One thing is for sure I think at this point and thats that the Euro's idea of this being entirely a rain event for the coast won't be correct, the positioning of the high is too good before the event starts for this to at least not be a decent front end deal for most people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The less sheared out southern vort would be awesome as long as the northern stream somehow ends up like what the 12z GFS showed. Still not totally giving up on a back end event as the last of the energy is ejected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 One thing is for sure I think at this point and thats that the Euro's idea of this being entirely a rain event for the coast won't be correct, the positioning of the high is too good before the event starts for this to at least not be a decent front end deal for most people. It can also be a setup for an ice storm. The WAA is modeled too weak on the GFS to really warm the upper and mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The key will be that piece of energy swinging around the PV north of Minnesota, we do not want to see that attempt to phase in with the southern vort over the U.S....at this point it looks too weak to me and too separated to do so, but that could be what turns this storm into a disaster for alot of people if it did happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The key will be that piece of energy swinging around the PV north of Minnesota, we do not want to see that attempt to phase in with the southern vort over the U.S....at this point it looks too weak to me and too separated to do so, but that could be what turns this storm into a disaster for alot of people if it did happen. Yes agreed, if it phases = bad, but it also could help to kind of squash the low a bit farther S if is aligned right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It can also be a setup for an ice storm. The WAA is modeled too weak on the GFS to really warm the upper and mid levels. 850s do climb up to about -1.5c at 18z Monday while surface is around 20. Seems like a change to sleet could occur for phl and even ttn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Quicker storm.....but this often happens on models. A 60-70 hour storm turns into a 24 hour storm and a 24 hour storm turns into a 12 hour storm.....it's expected.....but as long as it dumps some snow, it's fine Sent from my iPhone this is an 18-24 storm not a 12 hr storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The key will be that piece of energy swinging around the PV north of Minnesota, we do not want to see that attempt to phase in with the southern vort over the U.S....at this point it looks too weak to me and too separated to do so, but that could be what turns this storm into a disaster for alot of people if it did happen. Ageed as long as is stays POS tilted it will work its way under the confluence . VG run for KNYC . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I think we should all wait until Friday nights model suite. The way this winter has gone,nothing is a lock until 48 hours or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Leaving out the sun angle, sub-surface magma melting factor etc banter.... ~10" seems reasonable based on this run for many on here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Everyone plays nice when we see a good run, just wait till models turn ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 this is an 18-24 storm not a 12 hr storm.. I'm aware. I was giving examples of how long duration storms then into shorter ones. This one is still long duration, but not ridiculously long Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Everyone plays nice when we see a good run, just wait till models turn ugly. The Euro was not that pretty earlier today and the bickering began. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The danger with the one bigger storm vs smaller waves scenario is that a stronger storm will try to come north unless the PV really pushes down on it. I would much rather have a weaker rather than a stronger and consolidated shortwave. There is also the primary low and warm air aloft to worry about with these kind of overrunning events. This system overall is still not sitting that well for me for the city and near the coast. If I had to wager right now I would say this is a similar outcome to Feb 4th with slop to rain for the coast and snow to ice inland and congrats Boston. Maybe the next few days can prove this wrong but I'm not usually a fan of these kind of systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The danger with the one bigger storm vs smaller waves scenario is that a stronger storm will try to come north unless the PV really pushes down on it. I would much rather have a weaker rather than a stronger and consolidated shortwave. There is also the primary low and warm air aloft to worry about with these kind of overrunning events. This system overall is still not sitting that well for me for the city and near the coast. If I had to wager right now I would say this is a similar outcome to Feb 4th with slop to rain for the coast and snow to ice inland and congrats Boston. Maybe the next few days can prove this wrong but I'm not usually a fan of these kind of systems. You've made many good points regarding this with previous storms, and have been correct. This is why I am not too excited about this storm at this point. It makes me especially uncomfortable being the jackpot area 120 hours out. There is nearly a 100% chance that the jackpot area will change and a very good chance that the entire area of snow and rain will make a pretty drastic shift as well Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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