Rjay Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The. ECMWF-ENS trend has been a little south from last night and yeasterday's run. Most models are trending a little south. We need to wait for a few more runs before any true conclusion can be made. At this point it could be rain/ ice/ snow or it could even miss us to the south. As for my forecast I did issue a heads up and currently leaning for a mainly snow event. I 100% respect you so no disrespect when I say the Euro and it's ensembles are north of 0z last night. The 18z gfs and its ensembles are north of the 12z but south of last night's 0z . The only model that was truly suppressed was the NAVGEM which is way north of it's 12z run (not that the NAVGEM matters). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The 21z SREF ends at 12z Sunday. It's really warm for the area but it's way out of range and shouldn't be weighted. What's really warm, 40s, 50s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The. ECMWF-ENS trend has been a little south from last night and yeasterday's run. Most models are trending a little south. We need to wait for a few more runs before any true conclusion can be made. At this point it could be rain/ ice/ snow or it could even miss us to the south. As for my forecast I did issue a heads up and currently leaning for a mainly snow event. wait what? euro and GFS ensembles are north - not south - this post really confuses things as its not accurate -- I see the red tag and mean no disrespect but the bolded is not true... the rest im in 100% agreement with.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Truly believe the frontal boundary sets up NW of I 95 think it will be nice snows inland and mixing issues coastal areas, the NW trend had already begun wether it stops where it is now or it keeps trending has yet to be seen, but all systems have trended NW this year no indication it stops now. Just my opinion don't not have facts to back it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Truly believe the frontal boundary sets up NW of I 95 think it will be nice snows inland and mixing issues coastal areas, the NW trend had already begun wether it stops where it is now or it keeps trending has yet to be seen, but all systems have trended NW this year no indication it stops now. Just my opinion don't not have facts to back it up. It happened about twice, honestly. Folks need to get it out of their minds that every storm will trend NW because the early Feb one did. And I say that as someone on the northern cusp of the progged precip shield for this upcoming event who would love a continued NW trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It happened about twice, honestly. Folks need to get it out of their minds that every storm will trend NW because the early Feb one did. And I say that as someone on the northern cusp of the progged precip shield for this upcoming event who would love a continued NW trend.and I am saying it as someone on the coast who is expecting mixing over snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Friday 12z's will lock this baby in. Til then it's like watching a roulette wheel spin with these models. Without proper sampling, they cannot get a grip on this complex situation just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve5728 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Friday 12z's will lock this baby in. Til then it's like watching a roulette wheel spin with these models. Without proper sampling, they cannot get a grip on this complex situation just yet. What time do the 12z's come out on Friday??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Most important feature to look @ for the 00z runs. The EURO has this ULL farther West, so the shortwave associated with this storm heads farther NW thus the warmer look... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 What time do the 12z's come out on Friday??? 9am-1pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/data/nam/00/nam_namer_036_sim_radar.gif Very impressive look to the storm coming onshore Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 We all assumed the NW trend would give us a storm today but nope. Not every storm will trend NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CSheridan12 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/data/nam/00/nam_namer_036_sim_radar.gif Very impressive look to the storm coming onshore Sent from my iPhone Wow. Let me just say as a former Los Angeles resident, it almost only ever rains in january, nonetheless march. And it looks more like a tropical system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve5728 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 9am-1pm. Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The 00z NAM has already started a GOOD trend. At 54 hours the ULL I was talking about is stronger and farther SE than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Yeah the 00z NAM is really cold. Almost worries me since the long range NAM is known for being overly amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 NAM after 54 hours is not very useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 NAM after 54 hours is not very useful.i'm not doing anything more than giving it a quick glance. The moisture feed across the country is nowhere near as pronounced as the globals. Likely due to higher resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Mitchel I understand this, its good to see it show the ULL in SE Canada deeper and farther SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Yeah the 00z NAM is really cold. Almost worries me since the long range NAM is known for being overly amped. I would not worry yet but its interesting to see it so cold and far south at this range where 8 or 9 out of 10 times its going to be way NW of the GFS, Euro, and GGEM at 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I have no idea why you would worry Yanks, the cold is better for everyone, the shortwave is still very pronounced and the 50/50 is in a better spot, precip is just beginning to break out. This is an awesome run, but its the NAM so it doesn't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The usually amped and cutter hungry DGEX kept the 850's near I-195 just like the GFS/CMC, long duration event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I have no idea why you would worry Yanks, the cold is better for everyone, the shortwave is still very pronounced and the 50/50 is in a better spot, precip is just beginning to break out. This is an awesome run, but its the NAM so it doesn't matter. At the very least, I'll take this as good karma for the rest of the 00z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I have no idea why you would worry Yanks, the cold is better for everyone, the shortwave is still very pronounced and the 50/50 is in a better spot, precip is just beginning to break out. This is an awesome run, but its the NAM so it doesn't matter.To me it leaves open the possibility of nailing points south of us instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 To me it leaves open the possibility of nailing points south of us instead. Look at the shortwave in the southwest, there is no way it would slide SE... 00z GFS also has a better trend with the ULL in SE Canada thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Gfs out to hr 51 so far so good, the pv position looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Gfs out to hr 51 so far so good, the pv position looks great +++10000 This looks like the 12z GFS so far, I sense a really good outcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 What a beast of a storm coming into the West Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The shortwave screaming just north of the Lakes is farther South, meaning more cold reinforcement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 +++10000 This looks like the 12z GFS so far, I sense a really good outcome! Yeah its not trying to split west like the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.