SnoSki14 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Still wouldn't discount a wave blowing up as this passes given it's still so far out. The cold coming after this storm looks ridiculous for even January standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 18z DGEX has 850's similar to GFS/CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 the euro ens mean is north of 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 +SN it still goes on after that as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 the euro ens mean is north of 0z Indeed. And the 18z GFS was a slight bit North of 12z. Climatology and trends w/ storms like these would favor a slight Northward jog rather than the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 the euro ens mean is north of 0z not at all surprising after looking at the op -- honestly putting too much stock in any particular model with a completely un-sampled system is kind of crazy right now -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Indeed. And the 18z GFS was a slight bit North of 12z. Climatology and trends w/ storms like these would favor a slight Northward jog rather than the opposite. It all depends on where the pv sets-up and the confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Hr 108 looks warm on the gefs mean. Surface along 95 and 850 I-80 Hr 114 surface south of 95/ 850's around ttn. Hr 120 and 126 everything crashed south of Phl It's warmer to start then op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Gefs are def north and a bit warmer then op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 18z GEFS mean is a really nice hit. Column cools by Sunday afternoon or Sunday night from north to south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Snow lingers into Tuesday on the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 It all depends on where the pv sets-up and the confluence. I agree. That's ultimately the whole key to the forecast. Anywhere from a slopfest to a full blown HECS is on the table. Right now my gut is telling me a formidable 6-12 inch type storm, but I think I'll wait to friday to get a better feeling on it. Lot's of nervous model watching ahead, but hey that's what we live for! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 GEFS mean still has precip over the area late Tuesday night. Gotta be a few members blowing up the final wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 18z GEFS mean is a really nice hit. Column cools by Sunday afternoon or Sunday night from north to south. Compare the op to the mean it's warmer and further north. Obv it's snow from I-80 north but it has warmed. Its something not great to see, as they look to take a step towards the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Mean is 1" plus all areas except 0.75" plus LHV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Compare the op to the mean it's warmer and further north. Obv it's snow from I-80 north but it has warmed. Its something not great to see, as they look to take a step towards the euroYes they are warmer than the op but I wouldn't exactky base a temperature forecast on an ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Yes they are warmer than the op but I wouldn't exactky base a temperature forecast on an ensemble mean. The surface low is further north also...I would expect the gfs to bump north again at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 The surface low is further north also...I would expect the gfs to bump north again at 00z well if it does turn to rain or slop at the coast after all it was nice having a few weenie runs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I don't know if the north trend applies with a strong and elongated PV pressing down when you have a relatively weak system. If anything, I could see it trend further south. You have a very strong, dense air mass pressing south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Thinking that if this is just primarly a WAA event that we'll need to wait for the short term high res modeling before we have a true idea of what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 The surface low is further north also...I would expect the gfs to bump north again at 00zAnd even if that happens we still have four more days of runs to go. Nothing is off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 The surface low is further north also...I would expect the gfs to bump north again at 00zI wouldnt be so sure...there is still some support for a suppressed system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I wouldnt be so sure...there is still some support for a suppressed system Just yesterday you were gung-ho on an inland warm storm, what happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Just yesterday you were gung-ho on an inland warm storm, what happened? I think he announced the arrival of spring in the Philly forum a couple days ago, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I think he announced the arrival of spring in the Philly forum a couple days ago, lol. a big snowstorm sounds great but warm sunny days are starting to sound just as good or better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 a big snowstorm sounds great but warm sunny days are starting to sound just as good or better Take this to the banter please. Too much unrelated clutter up in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Take this to the banter please. Too much unrelated clutter up in here hey hey take it easy its better than most of the crap here this afternoon give me that anyway's the suspect performance of the EURO of late is weighing on my mind of it not having the right idea compared to almost the rest of the models painting a different picture. we will see the trends 0z and onto 0z tomorrow night if the EURO does indeed have the right idea. it was the last model to cave with todays threat when every other model was leading the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Just yesterday you were gung-ho on an inland warm storm, what happened? Reverse psychology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The 21z SREF ends at 12z Sunday. It's really warm for the area but it's way out of range and shouldn't be weighted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The. ECMWF-ENS trend has been a little south from last night and yeasterday's run. Most models are trending a little south. We need to wait for a few more runs before any true conclusion can be made. At this point it could be rain/ ice/ snow or it could even miss us to the south. As for my forecast I did issue a heads up and currently leaning for a mainly snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.